Earlier quoted context omitted.
The oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge
For sure, the real trading markets are huge. I mean the betting platforms.
the betting markets offset positions with the real markets. it's all connected
Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
81–90 of 263 posts
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
The oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge
Are you implying that there is arbitrage between the prediction market and the real market? Until now we were assuming that the prediction market is self-contained, with its other side staying within the confines of the prediction market.
the other side can and many times is an arbitrageour which has positions in both the prediction market and the real market
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
couldn't you somehow in theory track the order book to if and when insiders are betting and then copy the trade?
Not knowing who are the insiders and who is the dumb flow is like the fundamental problem of hft
In theory that is part of what was supposed to have been solved by CAT.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#84It's deeply American how so many of these articles about Kalshi or Polymarket frame the issue as something that can be solved on the American end with the stroke of a pen, especially in a multipolar world where American sanctions increasingly fail. These markets are global with global demand and many of the insiders are on the receiving end of American foreign policy. If an Iranian with a starlink sees a b-2 spirit f…
> especially in a multipolar world where American sanctions increasingly fail
You're claiming the U.S. government is impotent against holding Polymarket to account?
> These markets are global
The trades in question are bets on Polymarket and Intercontinental Exchange Brent oil futures. These are well within the remit of American law enforcement.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#85What's the statute of limitations on such things? Because it won't be prosecuted by 2029 but could be afterwards Personally I think it's a bigger problem when the President sues his own government for billions and then orders them to pay it out Because -that- is not an official act. It could be prosecuted but no-one will touch it even after 2029
Unless somebody snitches there's no real way to prosecute insider trading. You can say you just felt like making a trade, or that you read one of Trump's posts the moment he put it up on Truth Social and you just happened to have the trade ready to go. Unless they're absolute morons, the people doing insider trading for large sums of money will have already built a strong alibi.
> Unless somebody snitches there's no real way to prosecute insider trading. You can say you just felt like making a trade
If you have perfect opsec, sure, you'll just waste a few years and hundreds of thousands of dollars in court. If you texted a friend, or told a friend who then texted a friend, or traded too soon after receiving privileged information, you're probably fucked.
> Unless they're absolute morons
At least in securities, the dirty secret is most insider traders are in Congress and/or morons.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is there enough volume to cover the other side of the bet with these minutes-before trades?
The oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge
> oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge
Sure. But these aren't trades in "the oil market." They're bets on Polymarket and a specific oil-futures exchange.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
For sure, the real trading markets are huge. I mean the betting platforms.
the betting markets offset positions with the real markets. it's all connected
> betting markets offset positions with the real markets
Need a strong source for this. The size (and regulatory) disconnect between the two would seem to make making markets in both a bit silly.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can trade on non-public information if you obtain that information unintentionally. Now you have to be able to prove it’s unintentional if the question came up. A real experience example of this is if you work in an office building and your neighboring company, a public company, is being raided by the FBI. Can you use that information to take a position in the market? Yes, according to multiple attorneys we spoke…
intentionally/unintentionally is not relevant. it's legal to follow FBI cars and see who they raid so as to make trades. you could even have a hedge fund specialized on this. it's called alternative data you can even be a regular employer of a public company and trade based on information sent on internal emails. the only thing illegal is to be a designated insider - typically a restricted group of people with access…
> you can even be a regular employer of a public company and trade based on information sent on internal emails
You absolutely cannot.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#89I would be careful about attributing all of this to ordinary insider trading. Another plausible explanation is that some activity could come from state linked or intelligence adjacent actors, where the goal is not only profit but also testing or exploiting prediction markets as an auxiliary information channel.
Occam would disagree.
occam doesn't work in financial markets.
because if it did you would print money by following occam.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Unless they're absolute morons, the people doing insider trading for large sums of money will have already built a strong alibi. My theory is they are banking on preemptive presidential pardons in Dec 2028.
Trump already said he will do this. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-plans-to-pardo... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
Keep in mind that preëmptive pardons have not been upheld by the courts [1].
[1] https://www.criminallawlibraryblog.com/preemptive-pardons-co...