Kalshi CEO expects US DOJ to prosecute insider trading cases

Post by mcmcmc » Wed, Apr 15, 2026, 8:46 PM UTC

tyre wrote: post #60

I don't understand why it is a crime under current US law. Prediction markets can only do sports gambling (the vast majority of their volume) because they self-certify under the CFTC. The CFTC doesn't have the same standards of "insider trading" as the stock market, because insider trading is the entire point of business at the CFTC! If you're trading, like, oil futures or wheat futures or whatever, you are likely do…

Post by throwaway173738 » Wed, Apr 15, 2026, 8:56 PM UTC

michaelt wrote: post #80

Traster wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you buy the idea that Kalshi is a prediction market whose mechanism is gambling but whose product is accurate predictions, you don't have to buy the idea that insider trading is a good thing. Yes, in the rare occasion there exists someone with (a) insider information (b) confidence their actions won't impact their insider position and (c) access to capital - then you get extremely accurate predictions. In eve…

If people with more information profit at the expense of people with less information, isn't that exactly how things are supposed to work? If you're approaching a market with hard facts, detailed comparisons and solid evidence; while I'm trading in the same market based on vibes and intuition, surely it's expected that your returns would be better, and mine worse?

Post by hackingonempty » Wed, Apr 15, 2026, 9:01 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #76

hackingonempty wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A reasonable opposition party would declare the pardons invalid. Is that a valid interpretation of pardon power, does that undermine the legitimacy of our laws? No, in the USA the pardon power belongs to the President. Only a constitutional amendment could invalidate pardons.

As we are finding out in real time, the President has the power to try to do a million things, legal or illegal, constitutional or unconstitutional, and then whichever ones don't get pushback defacto become actual powers. Throw something at the wall, if it sticks, then it's a Presidential Power. If it doesn't, there's no consequences. Just shrug and throw something else at the wall.

Post by tptacek » Wed, Apr 15, 2026, 9:07 PM UTC

Traster wrote: post #49

tptacek wrote: post #36

This issue reveals the gap between the prediction market premise and what these things actually are, which is: unregulated prop gambling venues. If things like Kalshi and Polymarket are prediction markets, then, at least as far as the intrinsic concerns of the market itself are concerned, insider trading is a good thing; literally part of the point. If they are instead how they function today, then insider trading is…

Even if you buy the idea that Kalshi is a prediction market whose mechanism is gambling but whose product is accurate predictions, you don't have to buy the idea that insider trading is a good thing. Yes, in the rare occasion there exists someone with (a) insider information (b) confidence their actions won't impact their insider position and (c) access to capital - then you get extremely accurate predictions. In eve…

Post by stouset » Wed, Apr 15, 2026, 9:09 PM UTC

Traster wrote: post #49

tptacek wrote: post #36

This issue reveals the gap between the prediction market premise and what these things actually are, which is: unregulated prop gambling venues. If things like Kalshi and Polymarket are prediction markets, then, at least as far as the intrinsic concerns of the market itself are concerned, insider trading is a good thing; literally part of the point. If they are instead how they function today, then insider trading is…

Even if you buy the idea that Kalshi is a prediction market whose mechanism is gambling but whose product is accurate predictions, you don't have to buy the idea that insider trading is a good thing. Yes, in the rare occasion there exists someone with (a) insider information (b) confidence their actions won't impact their insider position and (c) access to capital - then you get extremely accurate predictions. In eve…