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The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

aphyr.com

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Re: The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

#81

Post by xienze »

Steppphennn wrote: post #75
xienze wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hence why I've been quite bullish on software engineering (but not coding). You can easy set up 1) and 2) on contrived or sandboxed coding tasks but then 3) expands and dominates the rest of the role. Why can't LLMs and agents progress further to do this software engineering job better than an actual software engineer? I've never seen anyone give a satisfactory answer to this. Especially the part about making mista…

> Why can't LLMs and agents progress further to do this software engineering job better than an actual software engineer? Because a machine can never take accountability. If a software engineer throughout the entire year has been directing AI with prompts that created weaker systems then that person is on the chopping block, not the AI. Compared to another software engineer who directed prompts to expand the system a…

> Because a machine can never take accountability.

A business leader can though.

> Compared to another software engineer who directed prompts to expand the system and generate extra revenue streams.

I think you're missing the point. Why can't an LLM advance sufficiently to be a REAL senior software engineer that a business person/product manager is prompting instead of YOU, a software engineer? Why are YOU specifically needed if an LLM can do a better job of it than you? I can't believe people are so naive to not see what the endgame is: getting rid of those primadonna software engineers that the C-suite and managers have nothing but contempt for.

Re: The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

#82

Post by xienze »

bwestergard wrote: post #76
xienze wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> domain experts will be fine But I don't see how this holds up to even the slightest amount of scrutiny. We're literally training LLMs to BE domain experts.

I think these arguments tend to reach impasse because one gravitates to one of two views: 1) My experiences with LLMs are so impressive that I consider their output to generally be better than what the typical developer would produce. People who can't see this have not gotten enough experience with the models I find so impressive, or are in denial about the devaluation of their skills. 2) My experiences with LLMs hav…

Not sure that's what I was getting at. People in camp 2 don't think an LLM can take over the job of a real software engineer.

It's people in camp 1 that I wonder about. They're convinced that LLMs can accomplish anything and understand a codebase better than anyone (and that may be the case!). However, they're simultaneously convinced that they'll still be needed to do the prompting because ???reasons???.

Re: The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

#84

Post by pixl97 »

Jtarii wrote: post #64
pixl97 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Can we get a new rule that an author posting their own content, knowing it is unavailable in the UK, has to post their own archive link and explain why they're doing so as part of the submission? [Author blocks link to avoid being potentially in violation of the law] You ask author to willingly provide link to again potentially be in violation of the law You do not see the irony in your question

So you are thinking that the UK government is going to do an international criminal investigation against aphyr for posting an archive link on a hacker news thread.

You're asking the wrong question.

Does the UK government have the legal right to do an international criminal investigation against any website that is potentially violating their laws by having visitors from the UK accessing the site?

Answer yes or no, this is an easy binary question, and not one that requires any probabilistic thinking.

Re: The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

#85

Post by davedx »

I don't understand the title. It doesn't seem exactly clickbait but also doesn't seem to be what the article is about?

Anyway: The new job types might seem overspecialized now but history shows us this is indeed what happens as new industries open up. I think these predictions look quite solid.

Re: The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

#87

Post by aphyr »

ej88 wrote: post #21

I am personally of the opinion that ML will end up being 'normal technology', albeit incredibly transformative. I think you can combine 'Incanters' and 'Process Engineers' into one - 'Users'. Jobs that encompass a role that requires accountability will be directing, providing context, and verifying the output of agents, almost like how millions of workers know basic computer skills and Microsoft Office. In my opinion…

> I think you can combine 'Incanters' and 'Process Engineers' into one - 'Users'

I wanted to talk about this more but couldn't quite figure out how to phrase it, so I cut a fair bit: with "incanters" I'm trying to point at a sort of ... intuitive, more informal practitioner knowledge / metis, and contrast it with a more statistically rigorous approach in "statistical/process engineers". I expect a lot of people will fuse the two, but I'm trying to stake out some tentpoles here. Users integrate a continuum of approaches, including individual intuition, folklore, formal and informal texts, scientific papers, and rigorously designed harnesses & in-house experiments. Like farming--there's deep, intuitive knowledge of local climate and landraces, but also big industrial practice, and also research plots, and those different approaches inform (and override) each other in complex ways.

Re: The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

#88

Post by keyes343 »

With AI, you just have to choose between going slow vs making a huge blunder later at some point.

If you go fast, you are bound to come across AI bugs later. Then you ultimately slow down to fix them. Which takes more time.

That black box will keep evolving. The AI interpreter will have to keep catching up with it.

Re: The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

#89

Post by nemomarx »

xienze wrote: post #81
Steppphennn wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why can't LLMs and agents progress further to do this software engineering job better than an actual software engineer? Because a machine can never take accountability. If a software engineer throughout the entire year has been directing AI with prompts that created weaker systems then that person is on the chopping block, not the AI. Compared to another software engineer who directed prompts to expand the system a…

> Because a machine can never take accountability. A business leader can though. > Compared to another software engineer who directed prompts to expand the system and generate extra revenue streams. I think you're missing the point. Why can't an LLM advance sufficiently to be a REAL senior software engineer that a business person/product manager is prompting instead of YOU, a software engineer? Why are YOU specifical…

why would it be a manager? hire a cheap intern to be the scapegoat, if the job market is bad enough. no reason for liability to fall on the suits

Re: The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: New Jobs

#90

Post by mrdependable »

I think the reason AI isn't going to replace CEOs, or anyone in the C suite, is pretty obvious. They see themselves as the company. Everyone else is a resource. AI is here to replace resources, just like investing in a brand new lawn mower. For them, replacing an executive with AI is like saying you're going to marry a broom.
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