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Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

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Re: Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

#82
post #66

It all seems so easy, despite the efforts of Putin and the US to support a guy that was there for almost two decades. I wonder if the incumbent party is, somehow, in the pocket of those fascists. I have a hard time accepting they’d just shrug and move on from being able to control a puppet state that’s the thorn in EU’s side. Any reason not to be so cynical? I am unfamiliar with the details of Hungarian politics, but…

> I have a hard time accepting they’d just shrug and move on from being able to control a puppet state that’s the thorn in EU’s side.

What can they realistically do? Invade Hungary?

> And why would Orbán just roll over after all this time in power?

What can he realistically do? A coup? With such a devastating defeat this would only lead to massive protests, which would completely ruin his political career. Meanwhile he can take a step back and think how to get back to the game in the next election.

As bad as Orban was, and as manipulated the election process was, he always won using legit votes. Which was both his strength and his weakness.

Re: Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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This is just a straw man fallacy I keep seeing pushed around, especially on pro-Russia subs in reddit. Elections are about how you choose who takes the role, it's not about what the role is - which can be a fascist dictator with popular support. It is a popular genre in the last 10-15 years, the fascists and dictators with popular support use their control of media, police, judiciary etc to align all the odds in their favor and go ahead and hold real elections and as long as the margin is large enough they don't cheat on the elections.

Even when they loose an election they tend to have loyalists embedded deep in the institutions and take power back through sabotage and legal battles. For example, they set the governing process in such a way that it's practically impossible to effectively govern by following the rules, when they loose an election the new people are having very hard time, services start to suffer. They need to do reforms and change the laws and if they don't have supermajority they are being blocked and end up either screw up governing or follow the practical paths of governing like the previous government used to do. This results in either losing elections next time as the public sees this as incompetence or being sent into jail as judiciary selectively targets you for corruption when you take shortcuts to get things done.

So it is a fascist dictatorship even if there are elections and official power transfer because the institution than wield power follow orders to smash opponents of their leader during their reign or even after they are officially not in power.

Re: Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

#84
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a fellow European this is the biggest surprise of the election, I thought for sure he'd pull a Trump.

Pulling a Trump requires a polarized electorate where you are mostly going to have both parties in 48-52% range, with only real fights in few battleground states, and no absurd change in total vote %. Even Trump won't pull a Trump if other party was nearing 2/3rd majority. I am not even sure of what would happen to American politics if a party reaches 2/3rd majority in both houses, a list of long pending reforms migh…

It's worth noting that the party vote share here was 53% for Tisza vs. 44% for the even-more-right-wing parties. The fact that this results in a two thirds majority is because the electoral system inflates the strongest party. Orbán has previously achieved two thirds majorities multiple times while winning less than 50% of the party vote. Most seats are assigned not through party lists but in single-member constituencies with first-past-the-post voting, same as in America. So it's not "convince two thirds of the people to vote for you", it's "convince a very slim plurality in two thirds of the constituencies to vote for you".

Re: Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

#85

I suspected he would lose when he was recently visited and supported by Vance. Nobody likes Vance (in Europe, and probably anywhere). Getting prominent backing by an unlikable character isn’t a winning strategy.

Also, the fact of faking a terror attack and everybody just shrugging it off as an obvious Russian false flag op. I think even Orbán understood at that point that the jig was up.

Re: Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

#86
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time will tell. Keep in mind that his successor was part of Orban's party in the past.

I don't know much about him, only that he was in the same party. I have heard that he is pro-EU and anti-Russia though, is that true?

"Russians go home" was one of the main chants at opposition rallies. In 2026 like in 1989.

Re: Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

#87
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know much about him, only that he was in the same party. I have heard that he is pro-EU and anti-Russia though, is that true?

Yes, he basically have the same views, except on Russia. One advantage though is that Orban put his people at the head of Hungary corporations, so maybe that will end and the corruption will be kept at "normal" levels.

> A country where no one is stigmatized for loving someone differently than the majority.

-- Peter Magyar victory speech, April 12, 2026

That's directly in opposition to Orban's views and homophobic laws.

Re: Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know much about him, only that he was in the same party. I have heard that he is pro-EU and anti-Russia though, is that true?

Pro-EU: probably. Anti-Russia: also probably. For both: I prefer to see it all rather than to assume it will be fine. Oh, and we still have Fico to deal with. But at least Hungarians have chosen against Orban that in itself gives some hope. Those leaked phone calls that were made public in the last weeks were very damning, I always assumed that such stuff was going on but to have hard proof is on another level. I won…

Orban is only 63; it's up to him what he will do but there is a certain type of people that could live happily on their own island with all the money they have stolen but they prefer to do evil to their last day. See for example Babis, delegating the ownership of his huge company to a trust fund so he can be a prime minister again at 70. Or indeed our great leader Fico who is in politics like Orban since '89, was prime minister around 15 years of the last 20, probably stolen billions for himself, was shot, nearly killed, and doesn't look like he wants to give up his power anytime soon.. and he's still only 62.

Re: Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

#89
post #85

I suspected he would lose when he was recently visited and supported by Vance. Nobody likes Vance (in Europe, and probably anywhere). Getting prominent backing by an unlikable character isn’t a winning strategy.

Also, the fact of faking a terror attack and everybody just shrugging it off as an obvious Russian false flag op. I think even Orbán understood at that point that the jig was up.

One thing that's surprised me over the last few years is how much Russia messes with global politics. It seems to seeping into public consciousness so instead of being seen as a bit of a conspiracy theory you now have the crowds shouting Russia out. I don't know if that'll effect other Russia backed projects like Brexit financed by Russia via Arron Banks and Trump, financed by the "We have all the funding we need out of Russia" stuff. It doesn't seem illegal but the voters may be getting fed up with it all?

Re: Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result

#90
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pro-EU: probably. Anti-Russia: also probably. For both: I prefer to see it all rather than to assume it will be fine. Oh, and we still have Fico to deal with. But at least Hungarians have chosen against Orban that in itself gives some hope. Those leaked phone calls that were made public in the last weeks were very damning, I always assumed that such stuff was going on but to have hard proof is on another level. I won…

Orban is only 63; it's up to him what he will do but there is a certain type of people that could live happily on their own island with all the money they have stolen but they prefer to do evil to their last day. See for example Babis, delegating the ownership of his huge company to a trust fund so he can be a prime minister again at 70. Or indeed our great leader Fico who is in politics like Orban since '89, was pri…

With Orban much reduced in power Fico's days are numbered.

But Orban will hang around, if only to do more of Putin's bidding, it's up to Magyar & the new government now to deal with Orban and his spies in a way that they won't be able to do a come-back.

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