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The Closing of the Frontier

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Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#81

Post by ajross »

layer8 wrote: post #66
mike_hearn wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not. "This model is too powerful for the public" can also be interpreted another way, which they've also strongly hinted at - the cost/benefit ratio of the upgrade is negative for the vast majority of all users. Finding vulnerabilities is one of the few cases where it makes sense to use it. Their writing about the model so far does say this is an issue where, for instance, you can't really use Mythos for int…

If the model isn’t worth the cost for those who might want to make use of it, then it can’t be that impactful either. One thing to compare to would be what’s been paid for bug bounties in the past.

Bug bounties don't reflect the market impact of the vulnerability though, just the amount needed to incentivize white hats to do research they wouldn't otherwise (or that they would target to other platforms that pay higher bounties). You need to look at market prices for zero days on the black market to get closer.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#82

Post by wonnage »

cortesoft wrote: post #6

This feels really premature. The announcement was a week ago. The “this model is too powerful for the general public” sounds like marketing to me. Give it a few months and it will be just another model they are selling, but the NEWER model is just too powerful for the public.

They’ve been shilling the same statement since GPT-2

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#83

Post by contraposit »

andyfilms1 wrote: post #36
Ancalagon wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is it won’t be if these new models stay locked to the public.

It has always baffled me how quickly, and how voraciously, people started to rely on privately owned AI systems. AI is not something discovered by scientists and plucked out of the ether. It's engineered and controlled, for profit, by corporations which have demographics and KPIs. These companies don't owe you anything, and they make no promises. If you're running a business that deeply relies on AI, you might as wel…

I can't run my business without electricity. Yet we don't fear of its access being revoked. Sam makes the comparison of intelligence to electricity a lot. So we are on the path to these systems becoming utilities.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#84

Post by AIorNot »

For pete's sake stop with the thinkpeices already.. its only been an week and the model isnt even out yet!!!!!

OMG this generation - we can't separete the outrage from reality anymore.

Meanwhile 3000 people have died arbitrarily in Iran War -while we navel gaze.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#86

Post by bombcar »

cortesoft wrote: post #6

This feels really premature. The announcement was a week ago. The “this model is too powerful for the general public” sounds like marketing to me. Give it a few months and it will be just another model they are selling, but the NEWER model is just too powerful for the public.

There’s a drain clog clearer sold in a jug like all the rest. But they wrap the jug in a thick clear bag. The implication is clear - this stuff is so powerful it’s extra dangerous.

It’s the same stuff inside as all the others.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#87

Post by contraposit »

DrProtic wrote: post #68
OldGreenYodaGPT wrote: post #7

The problem is Anthropic doesn't have the compute to deploy this model to scale to everyone yet. Dario didn't believe that they needed as much compute, OpenAI is going to have much more compute unlocked this year and especially next year.

Let’s say the model is indeed groundbreaking but needs much more compute that they have, I wonder would merging Anthropic and OpenAI be on the table.

On the efficiency side, why do we need 10 companies doing the same thing. "Don't Repeat Yourself" principle would agree with your proposal.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#88

Post by slopinthebag »

lowbloodsugar wrote: post #15

In other, underreported news, companies like AirBnB are using open source models. Anthropic and OpenAI have a six months to year advantage over Qwen and other models. We reached the point a while ago where Anthropic models where good enough, and so now, inevitably, we’ve reached the point where open models are good enough. The boasting of models so good they can’t be shared was propaganda to frame the conversation. B…

Underrated comment. I think the future is actually quite bright, if we can continue to use open models, even if they are behind closed SOTA models they are still capable and will continue to improve.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#89

Post by vector_spaces »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #11

I admit I didn't read the entire post (I honestly think authors really need to come to terms with the fact that we now live in a world of information excess, and pithiness is more important than ever), but I wouldn't feel too bad yet given there was a recent front page HN post about how free, open models could actually catch all the issues Mythos did, it just required a little more orchestration. E.g. see https://ais…

> pithiness is more important than ever

I apologize for getting stuck on your parenthetical but while pithiness is a fine aspiration in a North American business setting, pithy reads generally can't exist without more detailed and nuanced long-form analyses, and the latter face a more dire existential threat. You are right that pithy [writing] is an important skill, as are slow and deliberative reading and writing of longer form work

I'm not claiming the original post is detailed or nuanced, to be clear

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#90

Post by anematode »

contraposit wrote: post #83
andyfilms1 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has always baffled me how quickly, and how voraciously, people started to rely on privately owned AI systems. AI is not something discovered by scientists and plucked out of the ether. It's engineered and controlled, for profit, by corporations which have demographics and KPIs. These companies don't owe you anything, and they make no promises. If you're running a business that deeply relies on AI, you might as wel…

I can't run my business without electricity. Yet we don't fear of its access being revoked. Sam makes the comparison of intelligence to electricity a lot. So we are on the path to these systems becoming utilities.

Electricity is heavily regulated. Is there any evidence that LLMs will be the same?
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