81–90 of 192 posts
What leverage does US actually have here? Even Israel for that matter? The only options left for US are large scale bombing, like in Vietnam or Cambodia OR putting soldiers on the ground. Going on for years. Or drop a nuke. Bombing will be of limited use and extremely costly, because is Iran is too large. Its a geographical fortress, mostly large mountain ranges, or deserts. Soldiers on the ground means a large scale…
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>Given that the US failed to seize Iran's uranium stockpile I did not think this was possible. The three sites that were bombed in 2025 are all pretty centrally located within the country. Even if you can get troops there, the facilities are hardened and at least partially underground. Depending on how effective you believe the 2025 strikes to be, some of the facilities may be collapsed under tons of rock. There is n…
It seems that there was a failed US incursion towards Isfahan, where much of the enriched uranium is buried, a week ago. They could not reach their target and they had to scuttle and abandon two MC-130J airplanes and a helicopter, apparently because they were too damaged by the air defense to fly back. The official version is that the purpose of the failed incursion was to save the crew of the previously shot down F-…
If it were so easy that commandos could drop in and dig out the site in a day - seems improbable that the Iranians would not have already done the same. If the Iranians had already excavated the tunnels, it would seem prudent to immediately move the uranium to another location.
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May I remind you the Iranian regime was locking down the internet and shooting protesters in the street in the weeks leading up to the attack.
LMAO ok, I mean that's bad but if we're referencing history to contextualize a situation let's start with the USA and UK deciding that "sovereign country" isn't a real thing if they vote to nationalize their oil industry. We're heading toward decade 8 of FAFO here with zero lessons learned.
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Iran's state media reported that the F-15 rescue mission was a cover to steal enriched uranium, something which fits the facts a lot more than them constructing an airstrip in enemy territory and blowing up at least two MC-130s just to rescue a pilot: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/new-updates/did-us... Also suspicious that Iran came to the negotiating table just a couple days after the F-15 mission after…
I have my doubts. There was a previous BBC piece[0] which went into some of the challenges with such a mission. The first being: it is not publicly known where Iran is storing its uranium. There are many putative options, most of which are going to be hardened and underground. Isfahan is near the middle of the country - safely getting troops there would already be challenging, let alone digging up any from the collap…
Saving your men is important, but it should have been easy to do that at a much lower cost and at much lower risks of additional personnel losses, if that had been the true mission goal.
“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” Vance said. “So we go back to the United States having not come to an agreement. We’ve made very clear what our red lines are.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/12/jd-vance-says-... -------------- It was clear the U.S. was not serious about these negoti…
Who would they have sent if they were serious?
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Similar shit happening in North Korea. Should the US go there next? Regime change was NOT the goal, right? Wasn't that the party line?
Regime change isn't the goal per se, but disarmament is. Angry mullahs without missiles and nukes are harmless.
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My guess is it’s a chance to restock and reposition air defense as the slow attrition of interceptors was starting to open holes in the air defense. This administration has used negotiations as a diversion for further attacks on Iran and I suspect this is no different. I also suspect the Iranians know this and are likewise doing their best to prepare for them to fail.
That's true of pretty much every ceasefire ever, and both sides are almost certainly taking advantage of the ceasefire to do that. Even ceasefires entered in good faith often collapse so countries always try and reposition stuff during the ceasefire for when/if that happens.
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> The U.S. hasn't even come close to trying to seize the uranium and open the Straight militarily. That's true, but also irrelavent. USA probably could do these things if they tried, given enough time and resources. It seems pretty clear that Trump doesn't want to spend the resources (and lives) required to do so. Hence negotiations. Iran probably sees that the war is incredibly unpopular in USA and figures trump lac…
> It seems pretty clear that Trump doesn't want to spend the resources (and lives) required to do so. Events so far suggest the opposite. This is the first president in decades that took decisive action against Iran. Iran is weaker than ever, and this is perhaps a once in a century opportunity to end the Islamic threat once and for all. If Iran folds, Hamas, Hezbollah, and others will quickly follow and the region wi…
This is the exact same nonsense that Netanyahu said to the US Congress in 2002, when he insisted we invade Iraq. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_PDpwL8kuY
And what is the "Islamic threat", exactly? Why would attacking Iran end that threat, when the perpetrators of 9/11, for example, were mostly Saudis?
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I think dropping a nuke is not out of question. We just have to watch the language of the U.S administration over the next weeks.
It's very hard to imagine nuclear weapons being used in this conflict.
They seem to not be satisfied by causing global economic harm, they want nuclear annihilation as well.
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It seems that there was a failed US incursion towards Isfahan, where much of the enriched uranium is buried, a week ago. They could not reach their target and they had to scuttle and abandon two MC-130J airplanes and a helicopter, apparently because they were too damaged by the air defense to fly back. The official version is that the purpose of the failed incursion was to save the crew of the previously shot down F-…
Public information on Isfahan says the entrances to the underground areas is still caved in from the prior bombings. Unless the Iranians have already dug out the tunnels, the soldiers would have to land in enemy territory with their own heavy equipment. Then attempt to excavate the area while open to counterattack. If it were so easy that commandos could drop in and dig out the site in a day - seems improbable that t…