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U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#81

Post by kamjam »

deelowe wrote: post #76
kamjam wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I know consumers are not the issue. Cargo is, and that's why I brought it up, your original argument only mentions cars specifically and everyone driving hybrid is going to make little impact and as things currently stand everyone driving fully electric won't do squat. I think we are beating the same drum though. The map of country size comparison... should the land mass off a country determine your "allowed usa…

Why do you keep attacking me? I've been civil to you. The reason I compare land mass is because the infrastructure is different. The US has to move cargo over large distances and buys much of it's products from producers over seas. It's completely dependent on oil from that perspective. The size of the country also hurts development of things like high speed rail and public transportation due to issues with urban spr…

I'm not attacking you personally, sorry if it comes across that way but it is not my intention.

No I don't believe Tesla will start moving goods... but until we get near to that point then I don't believe just targeting consumers will have much impact. If they want some immediate impact then people should stop driving arounf in 4 litre V8 SUVs just to drop their kids off to school. But I can see the other comment on this, no need to go back in to this.

I am not American, and so I think we share different views on this, you viewing internally will see this much more different than me externally. Personally I don't care what happens to the US market or economy. There will be some knock on effect for the rest of the world in the short term but then things will just move on. Very true that no sane country will limit their oil usage, but soon they may well be left with no other choice. So better to be prepared now and find alternative sources of energy now.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#82

Post by roc »

epscylonb wrote: post #66
roc wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty well accepted that oil will never physically run out. Long before even extraction/refining costs make remaining oil infeasibly expensive, supply/demand will send the price spiking to uneconomical levels as soon as oil production so much as slows down relative to growth in world-wide demand. That's what the US increase in extraction is primarily about: trying to avoid price shocks between now and when the…

The problem with oil, is that it is an inelastic commodity. During the oil shocks of the 70's prices had to rise by 400% before demand started to fall. Also the notion of a country being energy independent when relying upon oil is a silly one. In the global economy, we want everyone to have relatively cheap energy, if not the global standard of living will fall.

> "Also the notion of a country being energy independent when relying upon oil is a silly one."

Sure. But there's no path to energy independence that doesn't include either: A.) huge economic shocks or B.) extending use of fossil fuels during the transition.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#84

Post by Tyrant505 »

DougWebb wrote: post #75
Tyrant505 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always come back to this point as well. Buy till there is no more, use nothing till everyone has ran out.

Another argument against this approach is that North American oil sources aren't as easily extracted as Middle Eastern sources. Part of the transition to North American sources includes developing better extraction technology as these sources start to be exploited. That requires real experience and years of R&D. If we just ignored our sources until we became 100% dependent on them, we're not going to be able to extra…

I agree with this argument. Yea, pulling oil out of sand is not as easy and needs the financials for R&D.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#85

Post by Tyrant505 »

ry0ohki wrote: post #60
refurb wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how does this help us? The oil market is international. If we wait until everyone else runs out of oil, then start drilling ourselves, we're still paying ultra-high prices for it. Of course, unless you are suggesting we don't sell any of our own oil at that point. Sounds good in theory, until you realize that keeping oil product for domestic use (at say $100/bbl) leaves a lot of money on the table when you can se…

Using our own oil last is more about military strategy and less about prices at the pump.

Stating the obvious, energy directly affects military strategy.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#86

Post by deelowe »

kamjam wrote: post #81
deelowe wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you keep attacking me? I've been civil to you. The reason I compare land mass is because the infrastructure is different. The US has to move cargo over large distances and buys much of it's products from producers over seas. It's completely dependent on oil from that perspective. The size of the country also hurts development of things like high speed rail and public transportation due to issues with urban spr…

I'm not attacking you personally, sorry if it comes across that way but it is not my intention. No I don't believe Tesla will start moving goods... but until we get near to that point then I don't believe just targeting consumers will have much impact. If they want some immediate impact then people should stop driving arounf in 4 litre V8 SUVs just to drop their kids off to school. But I can see the other comment on…

Ahh, ok. No harm no foul then.

I'm not necessarily taking sides though; Just pointing out how the situation is much different from most parts of the world. Developed infrastructure, a large geographic region, and a complete dependance on oil make the US extremely sensitive to external pressure in the oil commodities market. As a result, the government hedges, just like any sane investor would do.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#87

Post by dmritard96 »

jdminhbg wrote: post #69
dmritard96 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. http://climate.dot.gov/about/transportations-role/overview.h... looks like maybe 82% if you include trucks with cars

Good breakdown. As far as things that can be replaced by Priuses and Teslas (original point upthread), I think you're looking at just the 34% from passenger cars. So you end up with taking a bite out of (not zeroing) 2% of global emissions.

well - I would still say that is a bit optimistic. For instance what portion of consumers can afford a prius or tesla type vehicle?

I do think it is fair to point out that as there is more industry adoption (starting with teslas and priuses) the tech should become cheaper and better, affected other markets in other places. So directly, they aren't going to do much, but in the long term, adoption of teslas and priuses could have a substantial impact.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#88

Post by dmritard96 »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #54
dmritard96 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Let me make my point more clearly" - yes please do because your first attempt was gawd awful... Part of the reason I would rather not invest in fracking (aside from the immediate environmental issues) is that if we want to end up at clean and sustainable energy then why make expensive investments into intermediate technologies that don't significantly impact the underlying problem. While it would reduce emissions th…

"... if we want to end up at clean and sustainable energy then why make expensive investments into intermediate technologies that don't significantly impact the underlying problem." So we shouldn't develop hybrid cars either? Or wind power? Or biofuels? If you want to get from A to B you can't just teleport there, you need to travel the distance between, and that typically involves lots of incremental and partial adv…

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/09/climate-ch...

No teleportation needed, Nuclear is available and works. :-)

Yes there are safety concerns but ignore the impacts of rising sea level and global warming is way less responsible than nuclear.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#89

Post by thwest »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #78
MrBlue wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wrong. There are currently 15k to 16k Americans working in Iraq, under the auspices of the State Department. I guarantee they aren't all working desk jobs and God knows how many mercenaries...I mean contractors are still running around. Just because they aren't labelled "combat troops" doesn't mean they don't carry guns and kill people.

Those are not troops. Are Americans working or visiting, say, New Zealand to be considered an occupying force?

Do Americans working or visiting, say, New Zealand have legal immunity from murder prosecution? Were they imposed by an invading army?

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#90

Post by wffurr »

At $110 for Brent, all sorts of odd and difficult oil supplies will get developed. What's the net energy extracted for the economy to do useful work with, though? The energy (and dollar) cost of extracting oil shales and deepwater is enormous compared to the Kingdom's costs for their supergiant fields.

This is good news, if true, for the US' balance of trade, but sustained $100+/barrel oil will induce major structural shifts in our economy whether we're exporting or importing.

The EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) implications of these prices are even worse. At a certain point, the only reason to continue to drill is because it's marginally cheaper than the energy intensive task of creating liquid fuels from organic feedstocks (i.e. - ethanol). We'll have to have switch at that point to something else as the primary source of energy for our economy, but nothing else is even close to being ready.

I hope you're all ready to work like Joey Hess, netbook battery by candle light: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4721645

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