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Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

theguardian.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#81

Post by wutwutwat »

hank2000 wrote: post #60

Imagine a bunch of people are tortured, removed from their homes, are killed… and you get paid? Are you cheering for it because you’re getting paid? I can’t imagine wanting to be cheering on death and destruction.

> Imagine a bunch of people are tortured, removed from their homes, are killed… and you get paid?

This is what every military supplier does. What every soldier. What every person holding stock in the military supplier's company, every person shorting oil shares, etc.

Gambling on war and death is disgusting. Sadly, people profiting from those things is nothing new. That does not make it ok though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NruZ3AR3Kvo

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#82

Post by maxerickson »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #69
Chrisszz wrote: post #4

This is becoming the kind of "VC platform for online war investments". You: 1. Plan 2. Bet 3. Invest money upfront 4. Execute 5. Redeem your profits

Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption. We've made profiting off of corruption substantially easier. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to increase corruption is a moron. Anyone who thinks having more corruption is a good thing is also a moron.

Is there an infinite supply of fools money? There sort of has to be if it's clear that the outcomes are being manipulated by participants in the bets.

I guess people do walk into casinos and play games that are legally controlled to have outcomes favoring the casino.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#83

Post by echelon »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #69
Chrisszz wrote: post #4

This is becoming the kind of "VC platform for online war investments". You: 1. Plan 2. Bet 3. Invest money upfront 4. Execute 5. Redeem your profits

Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption. We've made profiting off of corruption substantially easier. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to increase corruption is a moron. Anyone who thinks having more corruption is a good thing is also a moron.

It's also going to lead to assassination markets, either directly or indirectly.

> "Johnny CEO will be alive in 2027"

That might be banned from platforms (though not illegal), but this isn't:

> "Jonny CEO is the primary reason ComanyAbc stock is so overheated. CompanyAbc stock will close above X market cap on December 31, 2027."

That is an indirect proxy for assassination.

There are multiple things that could happen here:

- Assassin(s) place bets for outcome favored by assassination, then assassinate.

- Rival(s) place bets for outcome that do not favor assassination to either claim lack of responsibility or to attract bad outcomes. They might publicly announce it, then quietly work on implementing the outcome or let it arise naturally to take the other side of the bet.

I can think of a number of CEOs, politicians, and world leaders where this would put them in the crosshairs and make market participants very wealthy.

Even the "X candidate wins Y election" outcomes are subject to this.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#85

Post by b65e8bee43c2ed0 »

hoppyhoppy2 wrote: post #36
srameshc wrote: post #3

> There is now more than $500,000 (£371,000) staked on whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka this year . Now everyone has a chance to profit from war ! Thank you Polymarket

Are users able to bet specifically on whether prisoners of war in Kostyantynivka will be killed? Or whether women and children will be raped? That kind of fine-grained war market could be groundbreaking

I know you're just being snarky, but FYI, oldtimey rape and pillage requires the civilian population to be present at the time of the assault, and that only happened during the first month or so of this war. since summer 2022, the Russian advance has been so slow that women and children had months to safely evacuate. besides, each settlement is reduced to rubble by artillery and gliding bombs before assaults begin.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#86

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

eru wrote: post #75
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption. We've made profiting off of corruption substantially easier. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to increase corruption is a moron. Anyone who thinks having more corruption is a good thing is also a moron.

Traditional financial markets already give people really big incentives to cause all kinds of mischief. Eg buy a few puts, then publish some made up bad news about the company and profit. Somehow that doesn't seem to be too much of a problem in practice.

I don't care if someone tanks MSFT stock artificially or deservedly.

I do care if someone pays the president of Cuba $300k to launch a rocket at a skyscraper in Miami to start a war so they can make $1M.

If you're invested in MSFT, you signed up to be some part of a casino.

If you just live in the real world, you ideally did not sign up for infinite corruption that actually impacts your life just because someone wants to bribe politicians to get an ROI.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#87

Post by b65e8bee43c2ed0 »

testing22321 wrote: post #40
airstrike wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism is just a projection of our natural competition for scarce resources onto an economic system.

Resources would not be scarce if some people were not hoarding.

hoarding what?

you could dekulak all 3500 billionaires, magically transmute their make believe money into hard cash, and that $20 trillion would yield less than $2500 per human. hooray?

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#88

Post by bobwaycott »

nunez wrote: post #43

Not a new phenomenon! It happened during the War on Iraq. https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/02/weekinreview/you-can-bet-... People will bet on absolutely anything; gambling is as old as time itself. > Wagering was generally legal under British common law, so long as it did not to lead to immortality or impolity.13 Bets about the outcome of events in war, over the death of political leaders, over court cases, or between…

I’m sure that immortality was meant to be immorality, but the idea of British law prohibiting some Faustian bargain struck with eternal life on the line if the wager works in your favor gave me a good chuckle.

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#89

Post by Esophagus4 »

echelon wrote: post #83
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption. We've made profiting off of corruption substantially easier. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to increase corruption is a moron. Anyone who thinks having more corruption is a good thing is also a moron.

It's also going to lead to assassination markets, either directly or indirectly. > "Johnny CEO will be alive in 2027" That might be banned from platforms (though not illegal), but this isn't: > "Jonny CEO is the primary reason ComanyAbc stock is so overheated. CompanyAbc stock will close above X market cap on December 31, 2027." That is an indirect proxy for assassination. There are multiple things that could happen…

> That might be banned from platforms (though not illegal)

They are currently trying to fix this: https://www.hickenlooper.senate.gov/press_releases/hickenloo...

Re: Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

#90

Post by bdangubic »

Esophagus4 wrote: post #89
echelon wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also going to lead to assassination markets, either directly or indirectly. > "Johnny CEO will be alive in 2027" That might be banned from platforms (though not illegal), but this isn't: > "Jonny CEO is the primary reason ComanyAbc stock is so overheated. CompanyAbc stock will close above X market cap on December 31, 2027." That is an indirect proxy for assassination. There are multiple things that could happen…

> That might be banned from platforms (though not illegal) They are currently trying to fix this: https://www.hickenlooper.senate.gov/press_releases/hickenloo...

chances of that passing are roughly in-line with chances of passing a bill to prevent our congressmen and senators from insider trading (you can also bet this as well :) )
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