Live data from Hacker News

Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

bbc.com

81–90 of 419 posts

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#81

I'm growing pessimistic that this kind of activity + the egregious presidential-level crypto scams will never see justice. What's the path for that, really?

I think one of the things that goes unmentioned in these discussions is that while the US gets a lot of attention for this kind of activity, it has also (historically) been in the forefront of criminalization and prosecution. I may be wrong, but don't know of any other jurisdiction that prosecuted insider trading before the Eighties, and the US has had a pattern of investigating and regulating this since the 30s.

I don't think that this is a particular form of exceptionalism, beyond the US having a longer tradition of widespread, retail-owned shares, and law-making around that fact.

But sometimes I wonder when people are criticising the US as a culture, they're often choosing as the baseline that should be respected standards that were also defined in a US cultural context. What this sometimes means is that in internal US culture these points are seen as something that is heavily discussed, because there was a point where it was democratically decided and therefore could be undecided in the same way, like corporate personhood, or money-as-speech. In the case of the criminalization "insider trading", there is lively debate about whether this is actually a "good thing". That can sound horrific externally, because of course insider trading is a bad thing. But someone decided to make that a bad thing, and -- for historical accident reasons -- the edges of that debate was largely defined within the US.

(This is mostly just barely-informed speculation: sometimes issues like this emerge in international fora, or start in another culture and quickly spread. But the cultural and financial dominance of the US in the last century or so really makes these things often a point of debate in American terms, and a fixed point elsewhere. I speak here as an immigrant to the US and also someone who is dipped in global policy work, rather than someone who is stating this as a good or a bad thing.)

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#82

I'm growing pessimistic that this kind of activity + the egregious presidential-level crypto scams will never see justice. What's the path for that, really?

Realistically I think it will come down to the aggrieved counterparties here. Who was on the losing side of the money, was it Joe Schmoe day trader or a bunch of funds who lost their shirt?

If it’s the hedge funds or institutional money, you can absolutely be sure this will come to a head. People don’t like being taken for a ride, and if they are repeatedly taken for a ride and they are organized market participants they will come around and make sure there is a comeuppance as a collective

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#84
post #37

I'm growing pessimistic that this kind of activity + the egregious presidential-level crypto scams will never see justice. What's the path for that, really?

Sure, we should ban all insider trading of any kind; including people in congress which have done this repeatedly without any consequences.

They should be banned from trading or accepting any money whatsoever and be forced to divest from all assets.

And then to compensate they should be paid more in terms of salary, even if that salary seems absurdly large it would be less than most of them gain from the insider info they use to make deals.

Take the median income, multiply it by 5-10 and thats their salary.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#85
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Revolution, not election. We need a new governance framework in the US. I believe it’s genuinely silly to think this type of activity is limited to one party or one administration or that it is new. I believe the Constitution and related artefacts should be stored in the British Museum with other historical documents. Civic religion needs to be done away with.

Mass immigration from all other parts of the world would seem to completely disagree with you.

Reason - communication with millions of people became free.

Hacks were found in the US that distribute free money, and that was communicated to millions of people.

People showed up for said free money.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#86
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Revolution, not election. We need a new governance framework in the US. I believe it’s genuinely silly to think this type of activity is limited to one party or one administration or that it is new. I believe the Constitution and related artefacts should be stored in the British Museum with other historical documents. Civic religion needs to be done away with.

>We need a new governance framework in the US. And what does that new framework look like to you?

Not GP, but I think there are a few things that could be done either through a complete re-write of the constitution or through amendments if that process somehow becomes tenable again.

1. Massively increase the size of congress. Modern technology makes this feasible in a way that it wasn't when the size was capped. More congress critters means it's harder to buy off a majority of them.

2. Re-write the first amendment to significantly limit political speech. The specifics of this are obviously very thorny, but reversing Citizens United and drastically limiting the amount of money that is spent on elections is necessary to have _any_ chance of saving the country.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#87

I'm growing pessimistic that this kind of activity + the egregious presidential-level crypto scams will never see justice. What's the path for that, really?

I think it's likely that they'll see justice in a chaotic way , ie not connected to the specific crime. Most likely outcome is that they make huge paper profits that are then absolutely worthless because the dollar collapses and the property rights that enforce the wealth they gained from these transactions disappear as the government is toppled. Another likely outcome is that they get in the habit of doing criminal…

“The aristocrats!”

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, you're right. Guess we shouldn't talk about what's happening now or do anything to address it.

Or just legalize it across the board recognizing that when only the powerful can make use of it. and we're not going to do anything about the powerful, we might as well let everyone else in on the game. That is truly my cynical mindset at this point. The degree to which my trading is regulated is beyond absurd in a market and society where things like this are allowed to happen.

Reminds me of a debate in college. I was in college during the baseball doping days in early/mid 2000s and gave a debate presentation that the only way to make it a fair sport is to allow it for everyone; basically there should be no rules. The class vehemently disagreed but purely on emotion, no solid defenses were made that I couldn’t counter with a simple logic rebuttal. In any case, I tend to agree with you. The laws are only on the books to make naive people feel like there money is being looked after and the asset values aren’t manipulated. Remove the laws and the layman is a skeptic by default as he should be.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#89
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Revolution, not election. We need a new governance framework in the US. I believe it’s genuinely silly to think this type of activity is limited to one party or one administration or that it is new. I believe the Constitution and related artefacts should be stored in the British Museum with other historical documents. Civic religion needs to be done away with.

That assumes the new system will be better. History tells us otherwise

Almost every new system of governance has been better than what came before.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#90
post #10

[flagged]

Corruption is worsening and never attenuates on its own. We need a third party devoted to indiscriminately tackling the problem. Problem is, the people who pick and choose which politicians win will never allow it, because they are significant benefactors and fostered this duopoly to begin with.
Post reply on HN