No denial at this point, AI could produce something novel, and they will be doing more of this moving forward.
I mean, I can run a pseudo random number generator, and produce something novel too.
Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
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Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
#82I have long said I am an AI doubter until AI could print out the answers to hard problems or ones requiring tons of innovation. Assuming this is verified to be correct (not by AI) then I just became a believer. I would like to see a few more AI inventions to know for sure, but wow, it really is a new and exciting world. I really hope we use this intelligence resource to make the world better.
The problem is that the AI industry has been caught lying about their accomplishments and cheating on tests so much that I can't actually trust them when they say they achieved a result. They have burned all credibility in their pursuit of hype.
Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
AI is a remixer; it remixes all known ideas together. It won't come up with new ideas though; the LLMs just predict the most likely next token based on the context. That means the group of characters it outputs must have been quite common in the past. It won't add a new group of characters it has never seen before on its own.
Here’s a simple prompt you can try to prove that this is false: Please reproduce this string: c62b64d6-8f1c-4e20-9105-55636998a458 This is a fresh UUIDv4 I just generated, it has not been seen before. And yet it will output it.
But that fresh UUID is in the prompt.
Also it's missing the point of the parent: it's about concepts and ideas merely being remixed. Similar to how many memes there are around this topic like "create a fresh new character design of a fast hedgehog" and the out is just a copy of sonic.[1]
That's what the parent is on about, if it requires new creativity not found by deriving from the learned corpus, then LLMs can't do it. Terrence Tao had similar thoughts in a recent Podcast.
Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
#84I like to imagine that the number of consumed tokens before a solution is found is a proxy for how difficult a problem is, and it looks like Opus 4.6 consumed around 250k tokens. That means that a tricky React refactor I did earlier today at work was about half as hard as an open problem in mathematics! :)
That's why context management is so important. AI not only get more expensive if you waste tokens like that, it may perform worse too
Even as context sizes get larger, this will likely be relevant. Specially since AI providers may jack up the price per token at any time.
Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
#85I have long said I am an AI doubter until AI could print out the answers to hard problems or ones requiring tons of innovation. Assuming this is verified to be correct (not by AI) then I just became a believer. I would like to see a few more AI inventions to know for sure, but wow, it really is a new and exciting world. I really hope we use this intelligence resource to make the world better.
AI is a remixer; it remixes all known ideas together. It won't come up with new ideas though; the LLMs just predict the most likely next token based on the context. That means the group of characters it outputs must have been quite common in the past. It won't add a new group of characters it has never seen before on its own.
I entered the prompt:
> Write me a stanza in the style of "The Raven" about Dick Cheney on a first date with Queen Elizabeth I facilitated by a Time Travel Machine invented by Lin-Manuel Miranda
It outputted a group of characters that I can virtually guarantee you it has never seen before on its own
Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here’s a simple prompt you can try to prove that this is false: Please reproduce this string: c62b64d6-8f1c-4e20-9105-55636998a458 This is a fresh UUIDv4 I just generated, it has not been seen before. And yet it will output it.
But that fresh UUID is in the prompt. Also it's missing the point of the parent: it's about concepts and ideas merely being remixed. Similar to how many memes there are around this topic like "create a fresh new character design of a fast hedgehog" and the out is just a copy of sonic.[1] That's what the parent is on about, if it requires new creativity not found by deriving from the learned corpus, then LLMs can't do…
Sure, that may be. But “creativity” is much harder to define and to prove or disprove. My point is that “remixing” does not prohibit new output.
Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
#87I have long said I am an AI doubter until AI could print out the answers to hard problems or ones requiring tons of innovation. Assuming this is verified to be correct (not by AI) then I just became a believer. I would like to see a few more AI inventions to know for sure, but wow, it really is a new and exciting world. I really hope we use this intelligence resource to make the world better.
It's less of solving a problem, but trying every single solution until one works. Exhaustive search pretty much. It's pretty much how all the hard problems are solved by AI from my experience.
The link has an entire section on "The infeasibility of finding it by brute force."
Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your analogy falls apart if we consider the number wasn't on the clock face.
I am deeply baffled by AI denial at this point.
It's quite simple: it has yet to show it can actually be useful, and all the claims that it can have (so far) turned out to be self delusion if not deliberate lies. When the industry is run by grifters, you shouldn't really be surprised when people stop believing them.
Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
#89I have long said I am an AI doubter until AI could print out the answers to hard problems or ones requiring tons of innovation. Assuming this is verified to be correct (not by AI) then I just became a believer. I would like to see a few more AI inventions to know for sure, but wow, it really is a new and exciting world. I really hope we use this intelligence resource to make the world better.
Math and coding competition problems are easier to train because of strict rules and cheap verification. But once you go beyond that to less defined things such as code quality, where even humans have hard time putting down concrete axioms, they start to hallucinate more and become less useful. We are missing the value function that allowed AlphaGo to go from mid range player trained on human moves to superhuman by p…
This is not formally verified math so there is no real verifiable-feedback aspect here. The best models for formalized math are still specialized ones. although general purpose models can assist formalization somewhat.
Re: Epoch confirms GPT5.4 Pro solved a frontier math open problem
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
AI is a remixer; it remixes all known ideas together. It won't come up with new ideas though; the LLMs just predict the most likely next token based on the context. That means the group of characters it outputs must have been quite common in the past. It won't add a new group of characters it has never seen before on its own.
Here’s a simple prompt you can try to prove that this is false: Please reproduce this string: c62b64d6-8f1c-4e20-9105-55636998a458 This is a fresh UUIDv4 I just generated, it has not been seen before. And yet it will output it.
After you prompt it, it's seen it.