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Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

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Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#81

Post by roryirvine »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #60
_heimdall wrote: post #5

The stat has been raised frequently of late that 20% of the world's oil floes through the Straight. My understanding is that its 20% of total oil , but that around half of all oil production is used domestically where it is produced and never enters global markets. Unless I missed something when fact checking that, Iran is capable cutting off 40% of all purchasable oil.

There are several issues with that math. To begin with, it assumes that oil currently used domestically isn't on the market, but what do you expect oil producers to do if foreign buyers make a higher bid for the "domestic" oil? Or to put it another way, there's a reason the market price goes up by essentially the same amount in the oil-producing countries as everywhere else. Then it assumes that oil that currently go…

Much of that domestic consumption is used in the process of extraction and refining, so actually isn't on the market as such. My understanding is that GP is correct to say that the 20% figure rather understates the potential impact of a prolonged shutdown of the Strait.

Pipeline capacity to the west is pretty limited. The connection via Syria is affected by the war aftermath, the Iraq/Turkey route is already at capacity, and the Saudi connection to the Red Sea is vulnerable to resumption of Houthi attacks. There's some connectivity via Oman, but that's largely natural gas rather than oil.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#82

Post by orwin »

itake wrote: post #67
robertjpayne wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the US military commanders, generals and Pentagon knew this but the civilian leadership at the top chose to completely ignore it and can't really articulate a plan or what the plan ever was.

This conflict was a long time coming: Trump claimed Biden or Obama will start a war in Iran and that is why they are weak presidents. Trump sees himself as a peacemaker (flying in to negotiate deals with TH and KH, negotiating Ukraine war, etc). I think there is more going on to cause Trump drastically change his self-image. I don't think this is a Trump administration driven decision.

All reports are saying the US generals were against this. And a UD senator (Graham I think) just admitted he lobbied trump for the war, comparing him to Roosevelt, and coached Netanyahou on how to lobby trump. Just look at the article:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/senator-lindsey-graham-brags-a...

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#83

Post by orwin »

itake wrote: post #69
surgical_fire wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no way the US/Israel didn't calculate that: I don't really believe the buffoons in US leadership calculate much. It's all vibes. I firmly believe it will become a case study in how many ways a comically incompetent government can damage a country. As for Israel... I think their calculation is simple. They don't really care about how much damage they cause to the world economy, as long as they get to kill M…

If its all vibes, then how does trump hungry for a world peace prize vibe with the war? Or the many clips of Trump trashing Obama and Biden for potentially starting a war in Iran? No, this was a calculated decision.

Trump calling something bad but doing the exact same thing he talked against? No, I can't believe it. What a surprise. This definitely never happened before. At least before December 2025.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#84

Post by _heimdall »

roryirvine wrote: post #81
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are several issues with that math. To begin with, it assumes that oil currently used domestically isn't on the market, but what do you expect oil producers to do if foreign buyers make a higher bid for the "domestic" oil? Or to put it another way, there's a reason the market price goes up by essentially the same amount in the oil-producing countries as everywhere else. Then it assumes that oil that currently go…

Much of that domestic consumption is used in the process of extraction and refining, so actually isn't on the market as such. My understanding is that GP is correct to say that the 20% figure rather understates the potential impact of a prolonged shutdown of the Strait. Pipeline capacity to the west is pretty limited. The connection via Syria is affected by the war aftermath, the Iraq/Turkey route is already at capac…

The type of oil produced also varies by region. Russia mostly ships heavy and sour crude oil while much of the middle east produces light, sweet crude.

I don't know enough about European refineries specifically, but even if you could entirely redirect oil out of the middle east (it wouldn't be that simple), regional refiners may not be setup to process that different type of crude at a similar capacity.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#85

Post by alecco »

Brybry wrote: post #43
Waterluvian wrote: post #7

I think it’s wild to me just how much my mainstream news doesn’t feel like it’s covering some of what’s really going on. I have to go to YouTube to see that Iran is successfully fighting back in many ways including hitting oil tankers and depots. Not that I’m claiming the CBC and such are doing something sinister here. Just that I no-longer get the full story vibe I recall getting back in previous U.S. wars.

Al Jazeera, AP News, NYT, etc have been doing "live blogs" every day of the war since it started. CBC does it too. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/livestory/iran-israel-us-war-d... Though I will say CBC's seems to not include as many individual strike and counterstrike posts as others.

And they are all garbage.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#86

Post by orwin »

YZF wrote: post #49
solid_fuel wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not a reasonable option, it's a bear-trap. Once troops are on the ground it will be another decades-long slog, and one that ends like Afghanistan at best. At worst, this looks like America's version of Ukraine.

I can argue both sides but under the assumption (which I think is true) that 80%-90% of Iranians want to remove the regime there's some possibility of success. That said there's also the possibility of screwing things up completely and getting the entire population to fight you as an invader. One thing for sure, it's not going to look like Russia invading Ukraine. The Iranians don't have the resolve or the support or…

Iranian polls show that 20-25% Iranians living in Iran support the IRGC, but due to how the questions were formulated, you can't know who would support a regime change.

Polls after the 12 day bombing campaign in 2025 showed that 60% disapproved the bombing. That means you probably have at least a 40% base of support for active overthroing, growing, to change the regime, which is larger than the current supporters. Maybe you could have done something with it. Wait until the previous Komenei died of his cancer instead of martyring him, and wait for the new nomination and the protests that would follow to strike (decapitation of the morality police, species to open the prisons, etc).

The way it was done just feels like the US wanted chaos and death, not meaningful change.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#87

Post by roryirvine »

_heimdall wrote: post #84
roryirvine wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of that domestic consumption is used in the process of extraction and refining, so actually isn't on the market as such. My understanding is that GP is correct to say that the 20% figure rather understates the potential impact of a prolonged shutdown of the Strait. Pipeline capacity to the west is pretty limited. The connection via Syria is affected by the war aftermath, the Iraq/Turkey route is already at capac…

The type of oil produced also varies by region. Russia mostly ships heavy and sour crude oil while much of the middle east produces light, sweet crude. I don't know enough about European refineries specifically, but even if you could entirely redirect oil out of the middle east (it wouldn't be that simple), regional refiners may not be setup to process that different type of crude at a similar capacity.

Yeah, most refineries in western europe were set up for Brent crude from the North Sea, which is actually somewhat lighter and sweeter than Arab Light or Dubai crude.

Russia does produce some lighter oil, but the usual Ural / Volga-sourced stuff couldn't be substituted without additional hydrotreatment.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#88

Post by orwin »

YZF wrote: post #51
_heimdall wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump, the neo-cons, and much of the Republican party might as well hang up their hats if they put boots on the ground (beyond special forces which is often ignored for some reason). The US will be bogged down for years at a minimum if we entered Iran on the ground, or we would lose quickly and tuck tail. This isn't a fight to be won in a conventional war, the administration put every chip they had on a gamble that r…

Everyone says there's no historical examples but there is no exact parallel either. I wouldn't argue based on historical precedence here. The challenge is that regime is large and armed and they can hide and weather the storm. They'll hide in hospitals, and mosques, and schools and amongst civilians. Getting them and disrupting their organization to a point where a popular revolt can take over seems ... lessay hard.…

The UK population was _very_ weary of Churchill and his decision to involve the UK in WW2. You had the UK nazi party that was lobbying the industrialists, and the moscow-aligned communist party that was putting pressure on the laborers. Churchill would have lasted at most half a year after Dunkerque, and and much more pro-nazi PM could have been named. But the German airstrike campaign radicalised the UK population. Because the fucking Nazis couldn't bear to have decisions like 'who to bomb' taken by non-nazi, they replaced all the capable men with idiots yesmen.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#89

Post by notepad0x90 »

YZF wrote: post #61
notepad0x90 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, in the sense that he people who set oil prices and government policy alike can trade in those prediction markets. I'm all for the markets, very democratic and libertarian (not that I'm one), but policy makers, executives and other people from whom a conflict of interest by a prediction market translates into disaster for real people should be restricted from participating in these markets.

OK. So I think your answer is actually a yes? In this case however you can pretty much do the same thing with other financial instruments like future contract on oil. Either way, I agree decision makers shouldn't be allowed to trade (and I think are forbidden in most countries).

You can do the same with proper financial instruments, but there are insider trading laws that prevent those people with insider knowledge from profiting, but these markets have no such restrictions.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#90

Post by _heimdall »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #60
_heimdall wrote: post #5

The stat has been raised frequently of late that 20% of the world's oil floes through the Straight. My understanding is that its 20% of total oil , but that around half of all oil production is used domestically where it is produced and never enters global markets. Unless I missed something when fact checking that, Iran is capable cutting off 40% of all purchasable oil.

There are several issues with that math. To begin with, it assumes that oil currently used domestically isn't on the market, but what do you expect oil producers to do if foreign buyers make a higher bid for the "domestic" oil? Or to put it another way, there's a reason the market price goes up by essentially the same amount in the oil-producing countries as everywhere else. Then it assumes that oil that currently go…

I'd recommend this podcast episode[1] if you're interested. Nate Hagan's was originally in finance and has spent the last couple decades researching and discussing wide boundary risks. This episode goes deeper into some of the ripple effects of this oil being blocked in the Straight, it isn't as simple as running it through a pipeline and shipping it differently as though you're detouring around a car accident.

[1] https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/wide...

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