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Urea prices

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Re: Urea prices

#81

Post by AngryData »

adrianN wrote: post #25

Sooner rather than later we need to decarbonize fertilizer production. Maybe this will speed the process up a bit.

We have known how to do it for a long time, the problem is the energy cost. It takes 10x as much electrical power to produce fertilizer without fossil fuels as an input, and fertilizer production already consumes 1% of total world energy output. So to decarbonize it we need to increase worldwide electrical output by atleast 10% to cover the energy requirements, and it has to be all done with clean energy. Because otherwise you lose 70% of that energy in the fuel-electricity conversion, while the direct fossil fuel to fertilizer conversion is much more efficient.

It does need to be done, but to me it seems like it should be a second priority after not just cleaning up electrical production but increasing electrical production overall.

There are probably some efficiency gains to be made in synthesizing fertilizer from the air, but as far as I can tell there is limited room for improvements because creating nitrogen from air is basically the same thing as creating fuel from the air and that energy has to come from somewhere.

Re: Urea prices

#82

Post by AngryData »

zahlman wrote: post #70
phire wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, capturing CO2 from combustion is hard. Ammonia plants might burn methane for heat, but they don't capture its output. The actual Haber–Bosch process for reaction directly spits methane into Hydrogen (which is combined with Nitrogen from the air) leaving CO2 as a byproduct. The resulting CO2 is relatively pure, and it's already captured. You can feed it into anther process (such as Urea) or sell it for carbonisati…

So, better to power the ammonia plant with clean electricity, and source methane from methane capture projects?

If possible that would seem ideal, however we don't exactly have tons of excess fossil fuel free methane just sitting around waiting to be used, atleast compared to the absolutely massive amount of fertilizer we need to produce to feed farmland. And if you are eliminating the fossil fuel from production, you might as well eliminate the methane component too and produce hydrogen on-site from water.

The main problem is just the energy cost because ammonia and urea both contain an ass ton of energy, 90% of which is coming from the the fossil fuel sourced methane. 1% of total world electrical production already goes into fertilizer production, and eliminating the fossil fuel component increases energy requirements near 10x over.

Re: Urea prices

#83

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tdeck wrote: post #20
bediger4000 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know what else will blow your mind? Mass media excusing Trump from blame, followed by a good Republican showing in the midterms. Trump will be the only president to escape punishment for inflation. Mark my words.

The administration didn't even bother manufacturing consent this time and yet the media is acting like they did during the Iraq war. Democratic leaders are weakly pretending like they opposed the war but they really stalled the war powers resolution so it would happen before they forced the vote. Now they get to spend the first half of their statements condemning Iran and the second half weakly protesting about proce…

> administration didn't even bother manufacturing consent this time and yet the media is acting like they did

Which might suggest holes in Chomsky’s hypotheses.

> they really stalled the war powers resolution so it would happen before they forced the vote

The war’s timeline was moved back so materiel could be relocated and moved up because of Khamenei’s meeting. Democrats don’t control the Supreme Leader’s calendar.

This was an opportunistic war of choice pursued by one man. Partisan politics mean anything he does will be popular with Republicans and hated by Democrats, with all the electoral action happening at their margins while all the rhetoric is dominated by their cores. (The polling on this war isn’t black and white, either.)

It’s tempting to try and shoehorn this into one of the old narratives about there being a master plan. But sometimes nobody has a plan, they just sort of have a vibe.

Re: Urea prices

#84

Post by pjc50 »

alephnerd wrote: post #31
WaitWaitWha wrote: post #26

Yes urea is used in fertilizer. Yes, the price is going up relative to May 13, 2024 (lowest in 5 years). look at the chart in the article, then click 5Y on the bottom of the chart. Click the + sign between the calendar and wrench icon Type in "US Food inflation". It will overlay the "urea" price with the "US food inflation". Yes, urea seems to be a leading indicator. It is nothing like in 2022, yet .

> 2022 And that was specifically due to the (ongoing) Russian Invasion of Ukraine. After the 2022 spike, most large countries began building alternative supply chains to reduce impacts from these kinds of hits. For example, the US and Europe largely doesn't use urea unlike Brazil, India, and China. This is also why Asian countries have been investing heavily in Hydrogen energy despite HN's hate boner to the technolog…

A lot of the hate for hydrogen is for a vehicle fuel where it's strictly inferior to batteries, partly because it's such a pain to handle, and partly because it's a "submarine" for natural gas derived H2.

Evolving hydrogen from electrolysis and then immediately turning it into ammonia is a much better idea; ammonia is easier to handle than H2 gas and already has a market.

Re: Urea prices

#85

Post by pjc50 »

AngryData wrote: post #80
Scoundreller wrote: post #74

So a couple things: 1. if you’re a natgas producing country with lots of farms (hi USA and Canada) , your mega farm is probably injecting ammonia directly into soil as its nitrogen source, not urea. Pdf pg10, labelled pg5: https://www.ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/pub... 80-90% of US nitrogen fertilization is ammonia (because it’s almost entirely nitrogen and the rest are bonded to heavier molecules th…

I don't know if I agree with their conclusion on #3, beef is fed 90% alfalfa grass which is literally cheaper than dirt and fixates its own nitrogen. Yeah they eat more feed per pound of meat, but alfalfa is literally the cheapest and easiest crop to grow. Sow it, mow it, bail it, now you have good ground to plant grains in without artificial fertilizer next year. You only feed cows grains during their last month to…

I wondered about the prevalence of this in Europe: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Cultivation-area-of-alfa...

Looks like Ireland is mostly grass-fed and it's southern Europe which has significant alfafa growth. I don't think I've ever seen it in the UK.

Re: Urea prices

#86

Post by [deleted] »

gritspants wrote: post #60
alephnerd wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I guess the recent move in urea likely isn’t coming from energy costs, something fertilizer-specific, exports, shipping, or supply One of India's SOEs recently paused Urea production at some plants due to NatGas issues from the ongoing conflict [0]. Additonally, India began reducing purchasing of Russian LNG in late 2025. India also launched a tender to purchase urea on the global market in February [1]. This led t…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Urea prices

#87

Post by throw0101d »

phire wrote: post #66
zahlman wrote: post #59

> For use in industry, urea is produced from synthetic ammonia and carbon dioxide. As large quantities of carbon dioxide are produced during the ammonia manufacturing process as a byproduct of burning hydrocarbons to generate heat (predominantly natural gas, and less often petroleum derivatives or coal), urea production plants are almost always located adjacent to the site where the ammonia is manufactured. To be cle…

No, capturing CO2 from combustion is hard. Ammonia plants might burn methane for heat, but they don't capture its output. The actual Haber–Bosch process for reaction directly spits methane into Hydrogen (which is combined with Nitrogen from the air) leaving CO2 as a byproduct. The resulting CO2 is relatively pure, and it's already captured. You can feed it into anther process (such as Urea) or sell it for carbonisati…

> The resulting CO2 is relatively pure, and it's already captured. You can feed it into anther process (such as Urea) or sell it for carbonisation of drinks.

Makes for a pretty good refrigerant as well (R-744):

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide#Refrigerant

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refrigerant#Comparative_perfor...

Re: Urea prices

#89

Post by thijson »

throwaway85825 wrote: post #40
SigmundA wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are three main emissions control systems in diesels, the Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR), Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) and Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) which uses Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF). Any or all can be "deleted" and is a crime to do so. All 3 systems add complexity and potentially reduce performance which is why those who don't care about emissions like to get rid of them. Before DEF NOx regula…

Of course, but mostly it's just recirculation that causes costly engine rebuilds. If it wasn't so expensive no one would delete. Most regulations target emissions at point of sale but don't give a toss if such systems are practical or maintainable. It's sometimes better for the environment to have more emissions but not so much waste from having to buy a new thing more frequently.

The diesel particulate filter (DPF) forces the engine to burn more fuel periodically in order to burn off the particles in the filter. The net result is more CO2 than would be produced ordinarily.

I watched some farming videos, and the farmers calculate the hourly cost of their combine, it's in the 100's of dollars per hour. They hate it when the engine goes into the regen cycle, and they are forced to let the engine run.

Re: Urea prices

#90

Post by zelias »

One of the most interesting recurring themes in Neal Stephenson's _Baroque Cycle_ novels are the innovative uses of this stuff
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