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I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

dwarkesh.com

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Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#81

Post by pcthrowaway »

ang_cire wrote: post #65
margalabargala wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add to that all the military posturing over Taiwan and it's clear that it's not "China doesn't do what the US does", it's "China hasn't done it...yet." The idea that anyone would be better off with China supplanting the US is asinine. This is the same government that committed the Tiananmen square massacre and still doesn't acknowledge that anything happened.

I don't see anyone arguing that we'd be better off with China, but I am arguing that neither the US or China can be trusted with this, so the author positing "US AI dominance good to keep China at bay" is bad.

People are certainly arguing this, and it's something I've come to believe as well.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#82

Post by ang_cire »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #62
BoredPositron wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A republic without the rule of law is not a republic anymore.

> republic without the rule of law is not a republic anymore An observation one can make when comparing a republic with the rule of law to one that ain’t, whether across time or geography. There is a real benefit to having the American experiment prominent and continuing.

> There is a real benefit to having the American experiment prominent and continuing.

The American 'experiment' is one long history of the US doing really horrible things, but giving ourselves a pass because we dress it up in the name of freedom and self-determination.

If you ignore our slavery and the genocide of Native Americans, it's easy to paint China's slavery and genocide as evils that are unique somehow.

The real experiment of America is in seeing how self-deluded we can become if we continuously reinforce the false premise that our institutions are intrinsically good (or at least, nebulously "better").

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#83

Post by ekjhgkejhgk »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #50
ekjhgkejhgk wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the link because I can't stomach 3 hours of this. First phrase: "you're saving on energy by putting data centers in space". What? 2:08 "It's harder to scale on the ground than it is in space" what?

The argument is permitting and weather proofing are harder than lifting at certain values of scale for each. We’re not there right now. But if Starship pans out we’re at least damn close, particularly if solar-panel fabrication can be done from out-of-well silicates.

You don't buy any of this right?

Didnt startship exploded like 10 times by now? But in 30 months they'll be launchign 1 per hour? What?

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#84

Post by empath75 »

abcde666777 wrote: post #66

"Within 20 years 99% of the military will be AIs" That smells like such a baseless speculation that from the get go I'm not convinced of the author's rigor.

It’s also just a category error. It’s like saying that 99% of farm workers are tractors or 99% of textile workers are looms.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#85

Post by x0x0 »

abcde666777 wrote: post #66

"Within 20 years 99% of the military will be AIs" That smells like such a baseless speculation that from the get go I'm not convinced of the author's rigor.

It's just... immensely self-aggrandizing nonsense. The subhed

> “Preface to the highest stakes negotiations in history.”

Like come on. The cuban missile crisis, for starters? Bro needs to calm tf down.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#86

Post by observationist »

alecco wrote: post #18

But the "Anthropic fight" is mostly fake. Palantir was using Claude as base model. Anthropic allegedly took issue with unsupervised kills because the technology wasn't ready (or something along the lines). Also, I remember reading this guy has close ties to Anthropic. Also, I find it suspicious how he came to prominence out of nowhere. Like Big Tech and the establishment are propping podcasts of controlled narrative/…

It doesn't matter what you know so much as who you know. Networking is the most precious currency. He met the right people, got the right guests, and surfed a wave of fortunate occurrences. He was roommates with Dylan Patel of TheIjnformation, and John Y of Asionometry, and has since developed a wide range of high level industry contacts.

Sometimes people succeed without earning it, and what matters is what they do with the success afterwards. I'd say Dwarkesh earned it, but got lucky and caught the right waves, and has surfed the hell out of his success. He's had consistently well informed, level headed takes, and has engaged the field with insight and honest curiousity.

When I see people surf like that, I applaud it. There's nothing grifty or shady, he's just had a great series of excellent opportunities and has played them for everything they're worth. Once he had a few billionaires on, that was all the social cache he needed to continue attracting guests and high level researchers and other figures in AI.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#87

Post by loeber »

ang_cire wrote: post #53
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> go off about how we're such a better country that believes in freedom and goodness Better than China as a global model? Still, yes, probably. Potentially. Depends on how the next few years ago. Even if America fails, I’d argue a global republic is a brighter potential future than a global dictatorship.

The real lie here is that there's an ethical superpower. Just like being a billionaire (or, super-wealther, if you will), you don't get to be a superpower by doing good things. China and the US can both be bad, and they're both going to use AI for mass internal and external surveillance and weapon targeting.

This is both (1) not necessarily true -- there's no first-principles reason why being powerful implies being unethical -- and (2) deeply pessimistic and defeatist. You can apply whataboutism and say that everyone's equally bad, but I assure you that there's a pretty big difference, even down to your quality life, between the types of systems you choose to participate in.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#88

Post by ks2048 »

ang_cire wrote: post #43

The author is naive. > The whole background of this AI conversation is that we’re in a race with China, and we have to win. But what is the reason we want America to win the AI race? It’s because we want to make sure free open societies can defend themselves. We don’t want the winner of the AI race to be a government which operates on the principle that there is no such thing as a truly private company or a private c…

People who buy the USA-vs-China race to a specific goal - do they really believe if China gets "AGI" first, they will immediately try to conquer the USA? How exactly will that go?

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#89

Post by lovich »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #30
armchairhacker wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI slop > The uncomfortable truth is that... > ...that the real question isn't... > Corporate resistance...introduces friction at the infrastructure layer And check comment history ( https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=julius_eth_dev ) Sometime yesterday, or further back, someone has decided to run a bot experiment ( https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=patchnull , https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47340079…

dang should just give power to users with 10 000+ karma and 10+ years on HN to nuke from orbit "green" accounts that do feel like they're posting AI slop. No due process, no recourse: just give users with lots of reputation and old accounts the ability to eliminate new accounts. I don't say this because I crave for "power": I only have 9400 karma. I say this because I'm tired of people creating new accounts to destro…

I also fall short of your criteria and agree.

Having one red flag is something I wouldn’t nuke on, but new account + em dash + other ai style talking points is just too much.

I feel like we’re eventually going to end up with shibboleths or something like the thieves cant that updates everytime a new model launches just to distinguish the humans.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#90

Post by ashdksnndck »

ceroxylon wrote: post #45
zer00eyz wrote: post #6

> But within 20 years, 99% of the workforce in the military, the government, and the private sector will be AIs. I haven't seen this much hype and hopium since the dot com boom. The whole open AI -> Anthropic saga just reeks of the same evolution of Viant/Scient. Look we have an amazing tool, but it has some fundamental shortcomings that the industry seems to want to burry its head in the sand about. The moment the h…

I think a lot of Dwarkesh's mentality about AI being inevitable / ubiquitous comes from the same part of him that thinks that artificial things are "good enough", e.g. the way he allows his production team to use fake plastic plants on set. Is he correct? I'm not sure, but I know there are at least a few people who notice the difference.

I always listened to the podcast and forget they even have videos. Have a hard time imagining myself sitting and watching a 2 hour interview when I could listen while exercising or doing chores. Am I missing anything?
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