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War prediction markets are a national-security threat

theatlantic.com

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Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#81

Post by tossit444 »

xeromal wrote: post #80
abustamam wrote: post #78

For whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets. https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I ho…

What is xcancel?

Nitter instance for Twitter/X. https://github.com/zedeus/nitter

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#83

Post by unyttigfjelltol »

abustamam wrote: post #73
dastuer wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The site you cite for [3] reads: "Khamenei, the leader of the great nation of Iran, the freedom seekers of the world and the Islamic nations, has joined the highest paradise and reached his long-cherished wish of martyrdom in the holy month of Ramadan," said an announcement aired on Iranian state television. Sounds to me like it was made up after the fact.

In Islam, a Muslim who dies in war is considered a martyr, and it's desirable to die in the month of Ramadan. In other words, it's something that most Muslims want to have happen, but it's not like something we want to make happen. Like I don't want to die right now, but if I were to die, may as well be during Ramadan.

Yeah, I was recalling public references to Husayn ibn Ali (Haider) [1] preparing for battle. This individual is revered for both martyrdom and victory, so I guess which one he had in mind is technically ambiguous…. It’s also the same figure that the Iranians referenced after his death .[2]

[1] https://nypost.com/2025/06/18/world-news/iran-supreme-leader...

[2] https://www.news18.com/world/in-the-name-of-haidar-last-post...

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#84

Post by thephyber »

unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #55

Folks, the President announced the attack and rough date ten days in advance.[1] He did the same exact thing in 2025, with strikes beginning on the 61st day after a 60-day deadline.[2] This particular market wasn’t about the likelihood of a strike but the probability of radical success . It seems at least possible in the circumstances that the Iran Supreme leader chose his own fate, which was inherently predicable an…

You are pretending like it was inevitable that negotiations would fail and that Trump wouldn’t chicken out. Those are the likely alternatives in the betting market.

I would argue that Trump probably wouldn’t have felt confident enough to do this if he wasn’t already running on a high after the Venezuela war going so well for him.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#86

Post by roenxi »

dastuer wrote: post #61
unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #55

Folks, the President announced the attack and rough date ten days in advance.[1] He did the same exact thing in 2025, with strikes beginning on the 61st day after a 60-day deadline.[2] This particular market wasn’t about the likelihood of a strike but the probability of radical success . It seems at least possible in the circumstances that the Iran Supreme leader chose his own fate, which was inherently predicable an…

The site you cite for [3] reads: "Khamenei, the leader of the great nation of Iran, the freedom seekers of the world and the Islamic nations, has joined the highest paradise and reached his long-cherished wish of martyrdom in the holy month of Ramadan," said an announcement aired on Iranian state television. Sounds to me like it was made up after the fact.

Extracting an 80 year old from their house is a bit harder than you might expect. Even if their stubborness is going to get them killed.

I personally have difficulty believing Iran didn't know that war was inbound, everyone I talk to was anticipating it within a roughly 3-week window and these are people just working off what they read on internet news. Khamenei might not have known he was going to die that day and if he had his family would probably have been elsewhere. But it seems pretty reasonable to assume that he was purposefully not raising his security in his final days. The narrative win of a calm death vs the perfidious Israeli attack is powerful enough that he must have considered it.

There is an understanding that the strike that took him out also took out a lot of visiting high-level leaders; that'd be quite strong evidence against the idea it was intentional. But the fog of war is thick and it doesn't seem safe to take that occurrence as a given yet.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#87

Post by thephyber »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #68
unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #55

Folks, the President announced the attack and rough date ten days in advance.[1] He did the same exact thing in 2025, with strikes beginning on the 61st day after a 60-day deadline.[2] This particular market wasn’t about the likelihood of a strike but the probability of radical success . It seems at least possible in the circumstances that the Iran Supreme leader chose his own fate, which was inherently predicable an…

That gives me pause, given what he's been saying about Cuba recently...

Remember that Trump used the entire SOUTHCOM to focus on Venezuela for months and 2 fleets to focus on Iran for a month (and likely for the next 6). There will likely be lots of “pieces moving on the board” if we are to actively participate in Cuba’s downfall (more than isolating them and cutting off their fuel imports).

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#88

Post by foodforpokemon »

abustamam wrote: post #78

For whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets. https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I ho…

Only bets on fake world events?

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#89

Post by thephyber »

spiderice wrote: post #65
jimkleiber wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well markets give a huge financial incentive for it. Before you had to get paid a bribe for an intelligence agent. Now you can just "legitimately" bet on a market. It's a LOT easier and more spread out, I imagine.

The existence of banks gives a huge financial incentive to rob them. That doesn't mean we should get rid of banks. It means we should create a huge disincentive to rob them (which we do). Same thing needs to happen to people using national intelligence secrets in prediction markets.

That requires active participation in regulation and enforcement.

If anything, this administration is moving the other direction when it comes to betting markets, crypto, investments, etc.

What you are saying is logical for how enforcement should happen, but it isn’t happening that way.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#90

Post by thephyber »

abustamam wrote: post #76
_vertigo wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You couldn’t design a better system for incentivizing leaks if you were trying. Hell, the CEO literally said as much. Not sure how you can conclude the markets aren’t the problem.

Yeah I had to reread that part... I was like, no way the CEO of Polymarket publicly said on record that it incentivizes leaks. Had to check to make sure I wasn't on the onion.

The CFTC has been defunded and dismantled. The industries it regulated don’t even bother to put on a mask anymore.
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