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Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

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Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#81

Post by deafpolygon »

lelanthran wrote: post #79
deafpolygon wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can hardly believe that this is legal. They’re basically committing money that doesn’t exist just yet.

> I can hardly believe that this is legal. They’re basically committing money that doesn’t exist just yet. What do you mean "just yet" :-) I don't really know how likely it is that the money being committed will actually exist when the time comes (Softbank's commitment didn't exist, they had to sell off assets and rope in other investors to meet their commitments). Maybe it is very likely to exist, but, really, who k…

would the correct read of this situation that they’re betting on the AI bubble popping?

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#83

Post by Gud »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #80
glimshe wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could buy back stock or, God forbid, pay good old dividends to investors instead of throwing money away.

Why would paying dividends not be like throwing money away for Nvidia, considering the alternative is to reinvest it into Nvidia's R&D, hiring & training, etc. Investors are already happily making money on NVDA stock appreciation, so what more would they gain from paying dividends?

More money?

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#84

Post by allreduce »

leptons wrote: post #49
TheDong wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI has reached a state of software issue, not hardware Citation very much needed. At the very least, OpenAI seems to believe more and larger datacenters is the path to better models... and they've been right about that every time so far.

>OpenAI seems to believe more and larger datacenters is the path to better models... Does that mean they produce better slop, or more slop faster?

Better slop. The effect that these systems get better as you scale up [0] is real you know.

[0]: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08361

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#85

Post by mrweasel »

tl2do wrote: post #4

Instead of pouring more money into OpenAI and Anthropic, Nvidia should invest more in expanding production capacity for the RTX 5000 series and future generations. High-end consumer GPU availability is still constrained, especially for the RTX 5090, and street prices remain elevated. Nvidia should come back to the consumer side.

> Nvidia should invest more in expanding production capacity

Not if they expect build out of AI data centers to slow down. Once both OpenAI and Anthropic goes public there's going to be a pressure on them to either turn a profit or at least have the stock price go up. One way that can happen, if subscriptions, government contracts and ads aren't working, is cutting back on cost. Cutting costs means doing more with the existing GPUs and datacenters and running them for longer.

Even if the both companies can turn a profit, there's going to be a pressure to not spend on datacenters, if existing facilities can be pushed harder or used more efficiently.

OpenAI and Anthropic going public is going to mean reduced spend on datacenters and GPUs.

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#86

Post by jmalicki »

deafpolygon wrote: post #76
peyton wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might be surprised to learn that there isn’t even $100b of cash [1]. Some sort of commitment structure necessarily substitutes. [1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USDIVCA

I can hardly believe that this is legal. They’re basically committing money that doesn’t exist just yet.

Vault cash are actual bills in vaults. It doesn't even include the bills in your wallet or under your mattress.

It's small because few people go to the bank to withdraw a suitcase of $100 bills, it's a weird time series to pull up because it's not really indicative of anything outside of narrow interests for regulators and the mint - it's probably some conspiracy theory trope from crypto bros or something.

Most money exists purely in electronic form these days.

Monetary base [0] which includes the digital money banks have on deposit at the Fed, is over $5 trillion, and even that is tiny compared to M1 [1] which includes the kinds of things backing your money market account, which is around $19T.

When money is invested, they're going to wire it, not pull up with wheelbarrows full of bills.

0. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE 1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#87

Post by lelanthran »

jmalicki wrote: post #86
deafpolygon wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can hardly believe that this is legal. They’re basically committing money that doesn’t exist just yet.

Vault cash are actual bills in vaults. It doesn't even include the bills in your wallet or under your mattress. It's small because few people go to the bank to withdraw a suitcase of $100 bills, it's a weird time series to pull up because it's not really indicative of anything outside of narrow interests for regulators and the mint - it's probably some conspiracy theory trope from crypto bros or something. Most money…

> When money is invested, they're going to wire it, not pull up with wheelbarrows full of bills.

I think GP was making the point that the "money" doesn't exist even in electronic form.

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#88

Post by aurareturn »

codemac wrote: post #39

> Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said his company’s recent investments in OpenAI and Anthropic are likely to be its last in both, saying that once they go public as anticipated later this year, the opportunity to invest closes ok, sounds obvious > Nvidia, for its part, isn’t offering much more on the matter ok, so no more news from nvidia > Still, a few other dynamics might also explain the pullback.. Wait it's a pullback?…

The next round is IPO for both companies. I don't know why the headline is written like that.

Super click baity.

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#89

Post by jmalicki »

jmalicki wrote: post #86
deafpolygon wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can hardly believe that this is legal. They’re basically committing money that doesn’t exist just yet.

Vault cash are actual bills in vaults. It doesn't even include the bills in your wallet or under your mattress. It's small because few people go to the bank to withdraw a suitcase of $100 bills, it's a weird time series to pull up because it's not really indicative of anything outside of narrow interests for regulators and the mint - it's probably some conspiracy theory trope from crypto bros or something. Most money…

GP is wrong though, vault cash is the incorrect time series for that.

GP should have used Monetary Base if they wanted to consider purely electronic cash (that is not a result of any fractional reserve stuff at all), which is over $5T disproving their point.

Re: Jensen Huang says Nvidia is pulling back from OpenAI and Anthropic

#90

Post by deafpolygon »

lelanthran wrote: post #87
jmalicki wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vault cash are actual bills in vaults. It doesn't even include the bills in your wallet or under your mattress. It's small because few people go to the bank to withdraw a suitcase of $100 bills, it's a weird time series to pull up because it's not really indicative of anything outside of narrow interests for regulators and the mint - it's probably some conspiracy theory trope from crypto bros or something. Most money…

> When money is invested, they're going to wire it, not pull up with wheelbarrows full of bills. I think GP was making the point that the "money" doesn't exist even in electronic form.

That's what I was referring to. They're committing money they don't have in any monetary form at all. They're just promising they'll have it when it comes due. This is kind of like MLM.
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