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How will OpenAI compete?

ben-evans.com

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Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#81

I keep hearing about how the app integrations will be where the AI value is and then I see the actual app integrations and they are between useless and mildly helpful. From what I can see Anthropic's big bet is that they will solve computer use and be able to act as an autonomous agent. Not so sure how fast they will progress on that. OpenAI on the other hand - I have no idea what they are planning - all I'm reading…

Google is doing a much better job integrating AI into existing products. Gemini CLI and such seem just like a way to keep the leading competitors humble (a la iOS vs android). They're also building AI tooling tailored to specific companies (like the Goldman thing just announced) and have the cloud infra to back it up. I really only see Anthropic and Google surviving in 10 years.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#82
OpenAI lost the race to nerds' hearts. In the latest benchmarks, OpenAI is simultaneously cheaper (like 50% less?) and scores hire in coding and tool use benchmarks (GPT-5.3-Codex trounces Opus 4.6), yet all the coders want to marry Anthropic. I don't think OpenAI understands how to sell, if they even had a product to sell.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#83
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My sister uses Gemini and calls it chat gpt. It's becoming a genericide.

I still think it's hilarious that a product name as awful as "ChatGPT" has become so ubiquitous. I wonder what percentage of its users know what the GPT stands for, or even thought about it for a second?

I mean, how is it any worse than 'google'?

chatgpt is generic (as in, no prior meaning attached, except for the few people in the world who understand what GPT stands for). It's simple - even a non-english speaker can say it easily, and doesn't require one to be native to know how to pronounce it (this is a difficult concept for a native english speaker to grok).

These features makes for a good name.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#84

I speak native English and barebones high school Spanish. I recently visited Costa Rica and almost every time there was a language barrier issue (unknown word or phrase), the local folks opened ChatGPT, said what they were trying to say in Spanish and then had ChatGPT convert it to English. It was everywhere.

When OpenAI starts requiring a payment, or showing an ad before it starts translating, will they continue? Or will they use the Google Translate app, which can do this locally? (Or for that matter Gemini or Grok or whatever?)

“When Netflix starts showing ads who on earth will still use it?”

Everyone, it turns out. Same with Google. Same with YouTube. Same with Instagram, and the rest of the web.

Once people become dependent on ChatGPT (as they already are) watching a 30 second ad in the middle of a session will become second nature.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#85

If you were forced to choose just one of all the competing players, which is "the one" you will use? For me, the choice is ChatGPT, not for its Codex or other fancy tooling - just the chat. Not that Claude Code or Cowork is less important. Not that I like Codex over Claude Code.

Right now? Claude, so long as they don't fold to the Pentagon's demands. It's important to me that the company at least have a pretense of ethics. If they fold, I may just use open models via DDG – I don't find code assistants very useful for my workflow anyway.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#86

I speak native English and barebones high school Spanish. I recently visited Costa Rica and almost every time there was a language barrier issue (unknown word or phrase), the local folks opened ChatGPT, said what they were trying to say in Spanish and then had ChatGPT convert it to English. It was everywhere.

> said what they were trying to say in Spanish and then had ChatGPT convert it to English. It was everywhere.

i'm just so surprised they'd use chatgpt to do this, when it's quite as easily (and perhaps faster) to use google translate.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#87

People underestimate the lead OAI has with their post-5.2 models. The author does not strike me as someone who closely follows the progress frontier labs make in US and around the world.

It's a joint ignorance of how these frontier models get baked and what consumers want.

Many pundits think it's just a matter of scraping the internet and having a few ML scientists run ablation experiments to tune hyperparameters. That hasn't been true for over a year. The current requirements are more org-scale, more payoff from scale, more moat. The main legitimate competitive threat is adversarial distillation.

Many pundits also think that consumers don't want to pay a premium for small differences on the margin. That is very wrong-headed. I pay $200/month to a frontier lab because, even though it's only a few % higher in benchmark scores, it is 5x more useful on the margin.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#88

I speak native English and barebones high school Spanish. I recently visited Costa Rica and almost every time there was a language barrier issue (unknown word or phrase), the local folks opened ChatGPT, said what they were trying to say in Spanish and then had ChatGPT convert it to English. It was everywhere.

It's incredible that google translate had this moat for a decade (maybe more) including live translation but people prefer to use chatgpt now

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. I just asked it to build me a searchable indexed downloaded version of all my conversations. One shot, one html page, everything exported (json files). I’m sure I could ask Claude to import it. I don’t see the moat.

How do you know all your conversations are in there? Honest question I have this issue a lot with AI claims. Nobody verifies the output.

I did verify the output. You can download your stuff via their api

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#90
post #24

I think this take underestimates a couple points: 1) the opportunities for vertical integration are huge. Anthropic originally said they didn’t want to build IDEs, then realized the pivot to Claude Code was available to them. Likewise when one of these companies can gobble up Legal, Medical, etc why would they let companies like Harvey capture the margins? 2) oss models are 6-12 months behind the frontier because of…

The question is always about performance plateau. If LLM performance plateaus, then OSS models will catch up. If there isn’t a plateau, then I can simply ask the super intelligent AI to distill itself, or tell me how to build a clone.

It’s ironic, if the promise of AGI were realized, all knowledge companies, including AI companies, become worthless

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