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Global Intelligence Crisis

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Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#81

Post by xenophon »

SirensOfTitan wrote: post #64
xenophon wrote: post #52

Well-written; seems like an expanded and more detailed version of the Twitter essay that made the rounds a couple weeks ago. One thing this piece doesn't contemplate is deflation. Competition will still exist in this world; if friction decreases and renders switching costs lower for a wider variety of industries, while AI efficiencies improve margins, prices in those markets will be competed down to a substantially l…

How will AI affect the price of real goods and their inputs: lumber, food, electricity, textiles and the like? And will companies pass on the service-based savings to consumers?

The point is that if this article is correct about the assumption that AI is capable enough to reduce the friction of consumers rationally comparing options for a far wider basket of goods, then competition will reduce prices. No company wants to reduce prices if they don't have to -- their hand is forced by declining market share (or, with discounters, price reductions are a deliberate strategy to increase market share and absolute profit).

The bull case for AI and consumer welfare is 1) turning more markets into "perfect competition" like airline tickets, and 2) driving actual prices lower because the marginal cost of production is lower with less labor. Even if real inputs don't change, removing labor will reduce marginal cost (which implies that you'll see the largest price declines in labor-intensive industries).

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#82

Post by nojs »

stego-tech wrote: post #57
7777777phil wrote: post #36

If I understand this correctly, the whole chain depends on Phase 1 being right, that agentic coding makes SaaS replicable in weeks. We got a live test of that in February when Claude Cowork plugins wiped ~$2T off enterprise software. As I see it the market made a category error though, pricing Salesforce and ServiceNow the same when systems of record and systems of engagement have very different exposure: https://phi…

> but historical evidence Okay, I get that. Nobody is disputing historical evidence . What we're asking is, does the current pattern also fit historical evidence ? The answer a growing number of us seemingly reach is, no it does not, because generalized artificial intelligence is by definition able to replace general labor, and that includes future roles as well as current and prior ones . That's what I'm shaking, sc…

The argument is more like “humans always invent new things to want that are scarce”, and until AI literally replaces all human labour to the point of the marginal utility of a human being zero, this category will continue to exist.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#83

Post by jstummbillig »

rrr_oh_man wrote: post #59
jstummbillig wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much, as a % of your total wealth, would you be willing to bet on the believe, that this experience will not be radically transformed within the coming 2 years and then also allow for ~frictionless agentic price matching?

How much would you bet it will not be enshittified 2 years later?

Anything from 0 to 100%? Depending on what you are actually proposing. "enshittified" is fairly vague.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#84

Post by lm28469 »

jstummbillig wrote: post #44
SirensOfTitan wrote: post #40

I think the clear point of this piece is that we have the space and opportunity now to ask ourselves as a group: what are we doing? Who actually stands to benefit from the massive devaluation of services in an economy that is buoyed by service-based roles? There has been so little thought to the multi-order effects of the future we're pushing toward, and even if AI fails to deliver on its lofty promises, it will like…

> Who actually stands to benefit from the massive devaluation of services in an economy that is buoyed by service-based roles? Everyone, if it comes with productivity gains. We will need good tools to distribute the gains.

None of the productivity increase of the last 50 years have benefited the workers, there is absolutely no reason for that to change

Is everyone on this website 20 years old? They pulled the same shit with automation, with computers, with internet, with cryptos, and now with ai,... And people keep falling for the same bs over and over again. "the three day workweek", "we'll retire at 45", &c.

https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#85

Post by ilaksh »

Great article. If you narrow the audience to be a more discerning group then you could go further with some predictions incorporating robotics that will also displace blue-collar workers.

Integration of intelligence into humanoid robots is rapidly improving. Some indicators: multiple recent demos of learning from human demonstrations or from video, doing household tasks like putting dishes in the dishwasher and folding clothes, dramatic adaptive acrobatic performances, etc.

We have to anticipate that within the next couple of years, general purpose intelligence becomes standard in humanoid robots. And so a similar story about blue collar work could be written.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#86

Post by botusaurus »

7777777phil wrote: post #36

If I understand this correctly, the whole chain depends on Phase 1 being right, that agentic coding makes SaaS replicable in weeks. We got a live test of that in February when Claude Cowork plugins wiped ~$2T off enterprise software. As I see it the market made a category error though, pricing Salesforce and ServiceNow the same when systems of record and systems of engagement have very different exposure: https://phi…

historical evidence also tells us that global thermonuclear war will not happen

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#87

Post by suddenlybananas »

lijok wrote: post #78
krackers wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the assertion people don't price match groceries is so, so wrong. Many, many, many people have no choice I guess I didn't quite say my point clearly, the time and physical cost to get to a grocery store puts up barriers against perfect price matching. You likely are not going to go out of your way to visit a grocery store for just a single item. And I don't think online delivery will change anything here because shi…

> I guess I didn't quite say my point clearly, the time and physical cost to get to a grocery store puts up barriers against perfect price matching. You likely are not going to go out of your way to visit a grocery store for just a single item. I think you’re a bit out of touch with the common man. People do this constantly, some to a comical degree, going so far as to make two loops on their shopping trip to return…

I have never heard of someone returning groceries (unless it turned out to be moldy or something). Definitely not because they were cheaper elsewhere. Surely there would be food safety issues with accepting such returns.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#88

Post by throwaway2037 »

I think you could write a counterpoint article that takes the opposing view: Jevon's paradox. If we can create WhateverClaws with a billion token window, it will "feel" like something that approaches a mid-level computer programmer. Personally, I think this outcome is more likely than the "T2 Judgement Day" view from this blog post.

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#89

Post by lijok »

suddenlybananas wrote: post #87
lijok wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I guess I didn't quite say my point clearly, the time and physical cost to get to a grocery store puts up barriers against perfect price matching. You likely are not going to go out of your way to visit a grocery store for just a single item. I think you’re a bit out of touch with the common man. People do this constantly, some to a comical degree, going so far as to make two loops on their shopping trip to return…

I have never heard of someone returning groceries (unless it turned out to be moldy or something). Definitely not because they were cheaper elsewhere. Surely there would be food safety issues with accepting such returns.

Perishables don’t get reshelved, they get binned

Re: Global Intelligence Crisis

#90

Post by botusaurus »

jstummbillig wrote: post #37

Yeah, this seems plausible. Here is roughly what we need now: A workable plan to turn unfathomable productivity gains (which are amazing) into wealth for everyone. Socialism looking like the correct configuration of the end state. Who knew!

nick land knew:

capitalism = AI

communism = human security system

but capitalism always wins

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