Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation • Hacker News Board

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#81

Post by pfdietz » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 9:46 PM UTC

peterfirefly wrote: post #54

mono442 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's possible to create hydrogen from coal and carbon capture is supposed to be feasible. Though I don't know how commercially viable this is.

Carbon doesn't really contain all that much hydrogen. Feasibility is key. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GSV2kVkO1w

> Carbon doesn't really contain all that much hydrogen.

The hydrogen also comes from water reacted (mildly endothermically) with carbon, and by further reaction of carbon monoxide with water.

C + H2O --> CO + H2

CO + H2O --> CO2 + H2

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#82

Post by fsh » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 9:48 PM UTC

helterskelter wrote: post #35

BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #10

I don't think hydrogen will ever be a thing for personal cars. Apart from the abysmal "well to wheel" efficiency it's also just such a hassle to create a fuel network for it. Gasoline is bad enough but a gas that will just leak away whatever you do seems like a stretch. It is just so much simpler with electricity. Pretty much every gas station already has it. No driving it around with trucks. Just maybe once install…

I always figured it would make more sense for hydrogen to be an option for renewable infra if the problems with leaking and embrittlement could be solved. Currently, moving renewable power over very long distances and storing it at scale is a non-trivial issue which hydrogen could help solve. This way, for example, Alaska in the winter could conceivably get solar power from panels in Arizona.

These problems are grossly exaggerated in popular discussions. Hydrogen has been routinely transported and stored in standard steel cylinders for over a century. Most cities originally used coal gas (50% hydrogen by volume) for heating and illumination before switching to natural gas after World War II. What kills the idea is the abysmal efficiency of electrolysis and hydrogen fuel cells. Standard high-voltage DC power lines would be much better suited for getting solar power from Arizona to Alaska.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#83

Post by mmooss » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 9:50 PM UTC

BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #26

bombcar wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is most hydrogen fueling stations produce the hydrogen onsite via electrolysis of water. EDIT: My understanding was wrong - it's produced locally onsite but via steam-methane reforming: https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-na...

Okay not driving it around then. But somehow it's worse. You still have to build the special tank and the special pump and also get an electrolysis device that is big enough to create enough hydrogen and also you have to get heaps of power somewhere that could instead be just straight put into a battery in a car. Make it make sense. What's the point? Who is willing to do that?

> battery

Batteries create a lot of toxic waste. I'm willing to live with that if it doesn't cause climate change but there is an advantage to hydrogen? What is the impact of H2 fuel cells?

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#84

Post by whatever1 » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 9:50 PM UTC

Not that much worse than an ev.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#85

Post by stetrain » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC

wlesieutre wrote: post #8

It’s not really fair to compare depreciation against MSRP when they were being sold new at massive discounts. You could’ve gotten one of these for $40,000 off. https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/toyota-offers-crazy-40k-di...

This is a source of a lot of similar press around EV depreciation. They compare the MSRP of an EV 3 years ago with the current used market price, ignoring that the actual price paid is often significantly less due a combination of discounts, tax credits, and rebates.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#86

Post by fsh » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 9:53 PM UTC

2muchcoffeeman wrote: post #52

pjc50 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very easy to create hydrogen from fossil natural gas. Which is the real motivation behind 99% of H2 projects; continue to emit CO2, just hidden from the end user. Battery electric is now pretty much inevitable.

How do you solve aeronautical and maritime applications?

Hydrogen is not great for airplanes since the extremely low density makes the tanks too large. The best solution would be synthetic hydrocarbons (synthesized using hydrogen) which can outperform fossil jet fuel.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#87

Post by stetrain » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 9:56 PM UTC

helterskelter wrote: post #35

BadBadJellyBean wrote: post #10

I don't think hydrogen will ever be a thing for personal cars. Apart from the abysmal "well to wheel" efficiency it's also just such a hassle to create a fuel network for it. Gasoline is bad enough but a gas that will just leak away whatever you do seems like a stretch. It is just so much simpler with electricity. Pretty much every gas station already has it. No driving it around with trucks. Just maybe once install…

I always figured it would make more sense for hydrogen to be an option for renewable infra if the problems with leaking and embrittlement could be solved. Currently, moving renewable power over very long distances and storing it at scale is a non-trivial issue which hydrogen could help solve. This way, for example, Alaska in the winter could conceivably get solar power from panels in Arizona.

Moving renewable power is easy, we have a grid for that. Infrastructure for movement of electricity is ubiquitous in places that have never seen a hydrogen pump.

If the grid is insufficient in a particular place or corridor, investing in upgrading it will provide a better long term solution than converting electricity to hydrogen, driving that hydrogen around on roads, and converting it back into electricity.

Storage is a bigger issue for sure.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#88

Post by ForHackernews » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 9:56 PM UTC

aunty_helen wrote: post #60

Kinda glad this is the case. When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they should be punished. Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the ground. There seems to be some kind of psychosis around it being the next oil and therefore greedy people want to get in early on. But this blinds them to the basic chemistry and physics.

Why is it such a terrible idea? In theory you can generate it via electrolysis in places with plentiful renewable energy, and then you've got a very high-density, lightweight fuel. On the surface, it seems ideal for things like cars or planes where vehicle weight matters. Batteries are huge and heavy and nowhere near as energy dense as gasoline.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#89

Post by kccqzy » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 9:59 PM UTC

empathy_m wrote: post #76

At one point recently the Mirai came with a fuel incentive program: when you buy the car, Toyota gives you a gift card worth $15,000 towards fuel at hydrogen stations. An interesting second part of the program was that if you live near a hydrogen station but it's broken, Toyota will instead reimburse a rental car and gas for the rental, one week at a time but presumably for as long the hydrogen fuel station remains b…

$15,000 worth of fuel card sounds generous until you find that hydrogen stations have jacked up prices to $36/kg.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#90

Post by CamperBob2 » Sat, Feb 21, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC

ForHackernews wrote: post #88

aunty_helen wrote: post #60

Kinda glad this is the case. When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they should be punished. Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the ground. There seems to be some kind of psychosis around it being the next oil and therefore greedy people want to get in early on. But this blinds them to the basic chemistry and physics.

Why is it such a terrible idea? In theory you can generate it via electrolysis in places with plentiful renewable energy, and then you've got a very high-density, lightweight fuel. On the surface, it seems ideal for things like cars or planes where vehicle weight matters. Batteries are huge and heavy and nowhere near as energy dense as gasoline.

Besides being expensive to generate unless you already happen to have an electrolysis plant handy, hydrogen is awkward and hazardous to store. Once generated, it costs yet more energy to liquefy, and then it seeps right through many common metals, weakening them in the process. It's just not a good consumer-level energy source, and nobody could figure out why Toyota couldn't see that.

Interestingly, liquid hydrogen is nowhere near the most energy-dense way to store and transport it. I don't recall the exact numbers but absorption in a rare-earth metal matrix is said to be much better on a volumetric basis. [1] Still not exactly cheap or convenient, but it mitigates at least some of the drawbacks with liquid H2.

1: https://www.fuelcellstore.com/blog-section/what-hydrogen-sto...