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Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

thatjoescott.com

81–90 of 103 posts

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#81
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You said >> some other spot will, necessarily, become viable. You are correct, I did say that, but that's because the probability of that is so close to 1 that it's not worth splitting hairs about. Can that fail to happen? Sure, but for the planet to heat up even by an exceptionally high 10c and have few places near the average is a vanishingly small possibility, and would almost certianly require a change in the e…

But...that's just a complete non sequitur. The proposition wasn't " all the viable land/fishing spots will be destroyed". No one has been arguing that. It was "when we lose this viable fishing spot, another spot that was not viable will become viable ". And there is zero basis for that. So either you have massively failed to state your position clearly, or you are so blatantly moving the goalposts, the dragmarks can…

> So either you have massively failed to state your position clearly, or you are so blatantly moving the goalposts, the dragmarks can be seen from space. Which is it?

Stop with the personal attacks - you are obviously emotional about this, and it's clear I am not.

My position is, and always has been, that there is no evidence that modern societies are as dependent on living on, near or around their source of nutrition.

Even an extremely high increase, past what all models predict currently, will still leave net than enough arable land on earth to continue sustaining societies.

I am arguing that an imbalance wide enough for societal collapse is highly unlikely.

My position is absolutely clear, from the very first message in this thread.

You have, variously, 1) strawmanned that I argued cosmic balance, 2) shifted the frame of the argument from societal collapse to individual human suffering, 3) Made personal slurs against me rather than my argument, and 4) Point-blank refused to address my argument, restarted here for the third time.

These optics are not good. Just to be clear, this is what you are supposed to be arguing against (because this is my point): "Climate change on its own will not be sufficient to cause societal collapse."

I cannot see how you have any argument against that, but you have replied so many times that I have to wonder why you are even replying, arguing against an argument that is not being made.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#82
My amateurish view of this tells me that the amount of heat that's going to concentrate in Mexican Gulf (yes, Mexican) should Gulf Stream slow down/stop, will have enough power to push the hot waters through to the north anyway. The heat cannot just accumulate in the Gulf indefinitely. The Gulf Stream may hiccup, but it'll eventually restart/resume.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#83
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somehow humanity survived 10,000 years of the last ice age. Without central heating. Of course, furs will be harder to come by.

Being cold doesn't seem that big a problem. I think the bigger concern is what sudden climate shifts might do to agriculture. If some farmland becomes much less viable on a wide basis, that might be much harder to adjust to on the short term. I can't help but think of all the historical societies that collapsed due to even mild pressure on the food supply.

Current society can quickly collapse if the internet or AI data centers are shut down. All supply chains and finance are based on it. The shutdown can easily happen if the climate cools down, given that more electricity would be needed to heat houses, and we're already on the verge of efficiency of electric systems.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#84
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ignorance of this comment is breathtaking. How are the crops going to grow if the temperature drops by 15 degrees Celsius? What marine and terrestrial ecosystems can survive a sudden catastrophic change like that? What’s going to happen to the weather patterns after this planet-scale shift? How do you “adjust” to the collapse of your food supply and entire ecosystems?

Grow the crops somewhere else? The earth's climate has always changed - the sea was 100m lower 20k years ago and much of Europe covered by ice. But it doesn't change so much over one human lifetime.

We've gotten this far because we've had a rather stable climate for the past few thousand years. The current rate of the change is the problem.

You must have missed it: https://xkcd.com/1732/

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#85
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also narrative to scare society. Because frightened people are easier to manipulate with.

So how do we tell the difference between something actually scary and something designed to manipulate us?

Does articles like these scare you? If so, why?

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#86
post #84
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grow the crops somewhere else? The earth's climate has always changed - the sea was 100m lower 20k years ago and much of Europe covered by ice. But it doesn't change so much over one human lifetime.

We've gotten this far because we've had a rather stable climate for the past few thousand years. The current rate of the change is the problem. You must have missed it: https://xkcd.com/1732/

[deleted]

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#87
post #84
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grow the crops somewhere else? The earth's climate has always changed - the sea was 100m lower 20k years ago and much of Europe covered by ice. But it doesn't change so much over one human lifetime.

We've gotten this far because we've had a rather stable climate for the past few thousand years. The current rate of the change is the problem. You must have missed it: https://xkcd.com/1732/

It's still ~1C over a human lifetime which gives you a fair bit of time to adapt. I mean I may fly to Bali next month due to climate but that's just London being crap in winter as usual.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#89

There is no clear or remotely clear timeline. There is no clear or remotely clear solution. So, there is no actionable. We don't know enough.

There is one and only one solution: stop burning fossil fuels which dump CO₂ into the air.

Re: Bye Bye Humanity: The Potential AMOC Collapse

#90

There is no clear or remotely clear timeline. There is no clear or remotely clear solution. So, there is no actionable. We don't know enough.

There is one and only one solution: stop burning fossil fuels which dump CO₂ into the air.

You breathing CO2 out. Should we stop breathing? We dump CO2 in air to heat our living places to survive winter. Should we freeze to death?

I prefer to plant trees. And stop cutting them down in cities because of "leaves clogging the drains”.

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