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Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

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Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#81

Post by moralestapia »

mbreese wrote: post #28
ecshafer wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The margins on tech/cloud are just so astronomically higher than retail. Places like Walmart or Costco are fighting for IMO AWS should be spun out as a separate company.

This makes me wonder if Amazon the retailer requires having access to AWS services “at cost” in order to be profitable. If AWS was spun out completely, would Amazon proper be able to afford their AWS bill of AWS had a profit margin on it. I’m sure Amazon.com would be fine, but it would take a chunk out of their margins. I’m also sure that their X% ownership of the spun out AWS would cover the difference.

I don't have the answer but this question has an answer, as Amazon's earning reports are public.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#82

Post by ygjb »

sdf2erf wrote: post #74
pchristensen wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back when the Internet was America online and some CGI bin perl scripts, there were a lot of very lofty things said about the potential of the Internet in the future. I don’t remember any of them predicting the power of the tech would have over business, politics, media, and hours of every single day for billions of people. Even without AGI, it’s quite possible that were still underestimating. The effects of predicti…

The internet alone didnt change sh!t. Without smartphones, unified app stores, cellular network innovation et al internet traffic would not be so high. Funny how people leave this stuff out. Yawn. Basic simpleton analysis and takes.

The Internet created the backbone that allowed for rapid experimentation in communications technologies, and created the ability for anyone to create and share technologies and reach a huge audience very quickly.

Without the Internet, most consumer electronics would have been far more expensive to build, and would have been strictly controlled walled gardens, but the Internet in general and the Web in particular allowed so many inventors to flourish. Ever since that Genie was let out of the bottle, corporate and government interests have been trying to put it back in, and most companies are trying to build and reinforce walled gardens under the banner of unified app stores that extract insane rents.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#83

Post by tim333 »

smithcoin wrote: post #34

It’s not an AI bubble - it’s an inflated P/E bubble.

Yeah, the stock price is still higher than any price it obtained prior to Oct 2024. I think people are just shocked that stock prices may go up and down rather than up only.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#84

Post by fmajid »

blinding-streak wrote: post #7

Question: does Amazon's retail business matter for analysts at all? It drives the majority of revenue for the company but a much, much smaller amount of profit. Does Wall Street care about Amazon's core business one iota?

I'd run the numbers and AWS and Amazon's ad business together accounted for 100% of Amazon's market cap. The e-commerce division is essentially worthless as far as Wall Street is concerned, other than a loss-leader inventory source for the ad business.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#85

Post by DaedalusII »

staticman2 wrote: post #67
DaedalusII wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the first problem is a whole generation of people learned to code ai applications by fiddling around with the gpu in their gaming pc 10 years ago. so an entire generation of talent grew up with cuda the second problem is that so many libraries and existing software is cuda only. even some obscure hardware stuff. i discovered the hard way that some AMD thinkpads dont support thunderbolt transfer speeds on their usb-c…

>its literally cheaper to make an entire new chipset than it is to fix AMd Is it? Or does AMD expect to make a profit and it's cheaper to make your own chips at cost?

i mean its cheaper from an enterprise customer perspective. if a company is training an LLM, writing their training programs to use AMDs hardware instead of just using CUDA is so expensive and time consuming that it is cheaper to pay four times the price and use nvidia hardware. in this space its important to move fast, although that economic will shift over time

which is why nvidia hardware trades at a 4x premium to AMD

its not necessarily cheaper to make chips at cost either. nobody is making them, only designing them. so first you have to design your new chip, then you have to get a minimum order in with the chip fab so big it competes on unit economics, and then finally you have to get your dev team to write a CUDA equivalent software that is a problem so hard its only really been solved by apple, google, intel, and nvidia

only companies with big fab orders can get priority too.. if a company did all of the above and was ready to go, they probably wouldn't get fab capacity until 2030

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#86

Post by otterley »

sdf2erf wrote: post #73
danielbln wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should anyone take your sensible first statement seriously if your second statement is so easily verifiably false? Some of these AI critical posts really are an exercise in Gell Mann Amnesia, man.

Im still waiting to read about macro-level mass-lay offs or insane productivity leaps. Where are the results, tell me? What insanely great products have been shipped by people leveraging/building on top of LLMs...? Yeah, silence. As usual.

Just because people aren’t talking about how LLMs are boosting their productivity to ship “insanely great” products doesn’t mean it’s not happening. I don’t talk about every tool I use, and neither do many of the best teams who keep their eyes on the prize and relentlessly ship.

Meanwhile this story just came out: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/claude-code-is-the-inf...

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#87

Post by thunky »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #43
zlkanter wrote: post #3

Amazon missed earnings and promptly doubled down on AI spending: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-plans-200b-ai-spending... It is encouraging to see that investors are punishing what is the greatest misallocation of capital since the dotcom bubble. Investors have figured out that AI is limited to probabilistic and annoying chatbots that are for entertainment and for looking up trivia questions.

I was disagreeing with just your last statement, but then I did a little research: about 80% of revenue is from chatbots and 20% from APIs. So +1 on your comment. Bear with me here, I actually do have a point to make: I took my stepdaughter out for breakfast this morning. She is a financial wizard specializing in running large cities, and to explain to her the current craziness of overspending on AI infrastructure, I…

You're agreeing with GP but it's a flawed premise: a chatbot doesn't have to be limited to entertainment and trivia, as anyone who has used one for productivity knows.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#88

Post by thunky »

sdf2erf wrote: post #74
pchristensen wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back when the Internet was America online and some CGI bin perl scripts, there were a lot of very lofty things said about the potential of the Internet in the future. I don’t remember any of them predicting the power of the tech would have over business, politics, media, and hours of every single day for billions of people. Even without AGI, it’s quite possible that were still underestimating. The effects of predicti…

The internet alone didnt change sh!t. Without smartphones, unified app stores, cellular network innovation et al internet traffic would not be so high. Funny how people leave this stuff out. Yawn. Basic simpleton analysis and takes.

Wow this is like going on a medical forum and saying "medicine didn't change shit".

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#89

Post by thunky »

sdf2erf wrote: post #73
danielbln wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should anyone take your sensible first statement seriously if your second statement is so easily verifiably false? Some of these AI critical posts really are an exercise in Gell Mann Amnesia, man.

Im still waiting to read about macro-level mass-lay offs or insane productivity leaps. Where are the results, tell me? What insanely great products have been shipped by people leveraging/building on top of LLMs...? Yeah, silence. As usual.

You can find posts on this site every day with people say they're seeing big productivity gains.

I'm sure they'll all lying though, right?

Or, because it hasn't solved all of the world's problems yet then I guess it doesn't count?

Maybe you're the one overhyping AI.

Re: Amazon plunge continues $1T wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off

#90

Post by AlexeyBelov »

thunky wrote: post #89
sdf2erf wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im still waiting to read about macro-level mass-lay offs or insane productivity leaps. Where are the results, tell me? What insanely great products have been shipped by people leveraging/building on top of LLMs...? Yeah, silence. As usual.

You can find posts on this site every day with people say they're seeing big productivity gains. I'm sure they'll all lying though, right? Or, because it hasn't solved all of the world's problems yet then I guess it doesn't count? Maybe you're the one overhyping AI.

I think their point was: at this point we should see clear macro effects. There should be new software that wasn't possible yesterday (or feasible, etc). Something big and new, and high quality.

AI helps me too, and I feel like I ship more now. But what if it's just a feeling and I'm not doing anything groundbreaking? What if I'm just doing what I've always done but at slighly more speed?

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