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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#81

Post by bluecalm »

toss1 wrote: post #73
bluecalm wrote: post #18

Isn't Polymarket very low stakes? For example "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027" market (the main one for this issue) has only 14m USD volume. This is like 2 orders of magnitude less money than is bet on El Classico 2 times a year. There are risks connected when prediction markets run wild but Polymarket ain't it. There is also utility. It has high predictive value (it beats polls for elections from a little…

It beats polls for elections ONLY until someone notices it is being used as the basis of news stories and figures out it will be four orders of magnitude cheaper to manipulate that small market and make the news idiots broadcast that opinions have changed than to actually deploy all the adverts needed to change the opinions. The very low stakes you point out make this even easier to put a thumb on the scales. Goodhar…

News already broadcast tons of nonsense. Political commentary is just brain rot. Economic commentary might be just as well generated by one of those Markov chain string generators - it would make as much sense.

>>out it will be four orders of magnitude cheaper to manipulate that small market and make the news idiots broadcast that opinions have changed than to actually deploy all the adverts needed to change the opinions.

It will then become more expensive. Out of all the manipulation news and journalists do every day I am not sure why "people bet money at 1 to 4 odds that Trump takes Greenland before 2027" is particularly problematic. It's true people bet money on it at those odds. How is that more problematic that news running pro or anti Trump segments or broadcasting some random crystal ball readings to justify stock price fluctuations of the day? You can see how much money is bet on the market as well. It's not like you can spend 5 figures and suddenly shape the narrative.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#82

Post by Tadpole9181 »

nullc wrote: post #76

Why is polymarket worse than cell phone games? At least polymarket essentially self identifies as gambling and isn't specifically marketed to children.

Cell phone games are knowingly losing money for fun. Polymarket is a sign of a failing, rapidly deregulatory economy.

And that's before we get into discussing the social damage to country that already sees more school shootings than weeks in a year (actually, 4x more), with rising political and civil tensions including assassinated politicians, adding potential "lose your house" to random events. As if it'll help calm things down and let us all keep a level head.

Or the implications of news companies reporting on these odds as if they reflect actual statistical likelihood, and how that gives the ultra wealthy yet another lever to control the view of reality the common people have.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#83

Post by b65e8bee43c2ed0 »

bshaughn wrote: post #77
b65e8bee43c2ed0 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It gives people in power, wether it be the government or even an NBA ref, a vehicle to profit off of conflicts of interest / fixing games / etc... there is the stock market for those things, where insider trading is nigh invisible to public.

I think you have completey missed my point. The stock market only allows you to trade securities, and (in theory) there is a lot of regulation and enforcement on who buys / sells stocks. Additionally, no one has the power to magically set a stock price to be a certain price on a certain date. Polymarket all of a sudden makes it much easier to make money betting on an outcome people control. Looking at polymarket, I s…

>Additionally, no one has the power to magically set a stock price to be a certain price on a certain date.

but many have the knowledge of which company or industry is about to experience legislation, which they can pass to any of their associates worldwide, who can then buy or short the affected entities and share the profit with the insider. Polymarket is just the idiocracy version of that.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#84

Post by aisenik »

dang wrote: post #60
networkadmin wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The mercantile classes at first thought themselves exempt from the general misfortune. They were delighted at the apparent advance in the value of the goods upon their shelves. But they soon found that, as they increased prices to cover the inflation of currency and the risk from fluctuation and uncertainty, purchases became less in amount and payments less sure; a feeling of insecurity spread throughout the country…

Please don't make posts consisting of quotes and nothing else. HN is a supposed to be a site for curious conversation. It's not hard to see how posts like this interrupt that and bog it down - imagine someone at a dinner party* reading entire paragraphs like this out loud. (* I don't know why I said "dinner party", since I don't go to those, the conversation usually isn't good, and they aren't my idea of fun, but oh…

I don't really understand your point. We should reject ideas that make us feel like we have to sit through a monologue at a dinner party?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#85

Post by etiam »

zozbot234 wrote: post #67
stickfigure wrote: post #49

The only material objection mentioned in the article is that prediction markets are easy to manipulate. Well, only if they are thinly traded. If they get mentioned a lot more on CNN and CNBC, that is likely to change.

They really aren't. Every attempt at manipulation just turns into easy money for those who predict the right odds.

That only really holds if reporting on the manipulation bets is not turned into effective propaganda for skewing events towards the manipulation outcome. So the main argument of the article holds IMO.

Edited to add: I'd like to rephrase that a bit actually. It doesn't even have to help bring about the particular outcome being bet on. It's enough that it can be used to shift public opinion in some way that's worth the cost to the manipulator.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#86

Post by zozbot234 »

etiam wrote: post #85
zozbot234 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They really aren't. Every attempt at manipulation just turns into easy money for those who predict the right odds.

That only really holds if reporting on the manipulation bets is not turned into effective propaganda for skewing events towards the manipulation outcome. So the main argument of the article holds IMO. Edited to add: I'd like to rephrase that a bit actually. It doesn't even have to help bring about the particular outcome being bet on. It's enough that it can be used to shift public opinion in some way that's worth the…

Sure, but events where that kind of "skew" is effective are going to be quite rare. And even then, the incentive is just for everyone to try and "skew" the event as early as possible, where factors other than monetary cost or reward then become dominant. No different from what usually happens with no prediction market at all.

> It's enough that it can be used to shift public opinion in some way that's worth the cost to the manipulator.

This has been tried in the real world and is just not very effective. It's just too hard to move the price in ways that will shift public opinion when literally anyone else has a huge incentive to bet against you.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#87

Post by BurningFrog »

keiferski wrote: post #44
BurningFrog wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, like myself, you're just aging into being a bit of a conservative.

Eh, I don’t think not wanting gambling and amoral behavior to consume society makes me a conservative in any real sense of the word. More just common sense pragmatism, is how I’d put it.

Sure, but Chesterton's Fence is a pretty foundational argument among many conservatives.

Conservatives think societies are hard to understand, which makes them hard to engineer, and replacing institutions that work with new inventions needs to be done carefully and slowly.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#88

Post by giantg2 »

stickfigure wrote: post #49

The only material objection mentioned in the article is that prediction markets are easy to manipulate. Well, only if they are thinly traded. If they get mentioned a lot more on CNN and CNBC, that is likely to change.

"Well, only if they are thinly traded."

Right now, they're all thin traded at their open. As soon as they are created is when you see the volatility that makes them enticing. Once you get volume, there doesn't seem to be as much value to be had.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#89

Post by giantg2 »

What is the legality for US residents?

Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. Apparently this is just a checkbox for the user to attest to. They don't even do IP geolocation, never mind payment checks.

So it's currently illegal for them to run this in the US. But is it illegal for users to participate?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#90

Post by bshaughn »

b65e8bee43c2ed0 wrote: post #83
bshaughn wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you have completey missed my point. The stock market only allows you to trade securities, and (in theory) there is a lot of regulation and enforcement on who buys / sells stocks. Additionally, no one has the power to magically set a stock price to be a certain price on a certain date. Polymarket all of a sudden makes it much easier to make money betting on an outcome people control. Looking at polymarket, I s…

>Additionally, no one has the power to magically set a stock price to be a certain price on a certain date. but many have the knowledge of which company or industry is about to experience legislation, which they can pass to any of their associates worldwide, who can then buy or short the affected entities and share the profit with the insider. Polymarket is just the idiocracy version of that.

I completely agree insider trading is an issue, especially with the legality of sitting congressmen being able to day trade. But with the exception of elected officials voting for bad bills / policies, the "victim" is whomever loses money on those trade. Its reactive to world events, meaning the world events aren't being changed by the insider trader.

Polymarket is worse as it gives a mechanism for proactively changing the outcome of events to a much more extreme degree, simply because someone can make money on it.

A benign version of this would be NFL employees betting $1million on the color of gatorade in the Superbowl.

An insane version of this would be Trump issuing a single airstrike on Iran after having a friend or family member place a $10M bet on polymarket that pays out $1B. It completely erodes the obligation our government officials have to not act in their self interests.

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