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Post a link to a judicial resolution? otherwise it's just back to popular justice imparted a-la 18th century
Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
81–90 of 194 posts
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#82This looks like it might be the end for the current regime. There are still people getting information out, and they are tearing down and burning state buildings - around 3000 protesters killed since the crackdown began, but there appear to be tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people who have risen up against the ayatollah, with an unknown number of state forces and officials killed. Crazy start to the year.
There’s no opposition though? As much as some people outside Iran want, I don’t think the Shah’s son has enough of a base of support inside Iran. This doesn’t seem very different than the 2008 and Mahsa protests. Most likely there will be an internal reorganization towards economic reform and moderate social policies.
There's a huge difference - in previous protests, they were begging the regime to hear their voices, to do the right thing - to reform, or change policy.
This time, there's no calls for conciliation or change, it's outright "death to the tyrants" and an astonishing number of people hitting the streets. They're burning down mosques, tearing down statues, burning out police stations, lynching regime officials, going to officials houses and dragging them out, and so on.
Also, it's been going on for 16 days at this point, and for some reason, is noticeably absent from world media. That feels significant, somehow.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
Very unlikely. Unlike Syria or Venezuela, the Iranian regime has an ideological base and a very solid base of supporters. A civil war has more odds than that base of supporters accepting a new secular regime.
Popular revolutions will sweep any ideological base away, and it appears to be underway. The scale of the protests in the clips that have made it out have been impressive.
That's a myopic, overconfident take because the traditionalist have zillions more weapons and organization.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you google about Al Jolani you can see the terrorist orgs he worked for in the first paragraph of his Wikipedia page.
That's not the disputed part. The part we're all having trouble with is "and therefore the US wants to install the son of the Shah."
This is speculation, but given how cozy he is with Israel it’s not “nonsense”. And the rest of the post is verifiable, despite it being described as “mostly nonsense”.
Words are cheap and politicians often do much different than they promised. Remember when Trump said no new wars? Remember when he said we were done in Iran after dropping the bombs, and now intervention is looming?
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#85Some personal observations as I am in touch with a few folks inside Iran through Starlink.
1. The jamming/disruption is local to large cities most notably the capital, Tehran.
2. Even in Tehran it is not complete and my friends are able to send and receive messages. Uploading videos is harder.
3. The regime is now raiding homes that they suspect have Starlink terminals. I don't know how they identify them but I do wonder if they are using technology to locate them.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ask yourself why Jordan or Egypt are not tripping over themselves to accept Palestinian refugees.
If someone invades your neighbours' homes and kicks them out, you would be eager to collaborate and host them in your home indefinitely, yes?
or maybe it has something to do with past events (of when they did let them in the past)? Noo, can't be.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
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Ask yourself why Jordan or Egypt are not tripping over themselves to accept Palestinian refugees.
Why should they? Palestinians have a home. Jordan consists of majority palestinians. Why should they take in Palestinians? Besides Egypt and Jordan are puppet regimes, paid for by the West. They receive billions for weapons annually. One dicatator and another monarch suppressing their people and getting weapons and intelligence in return.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the sense that Trump wouldn't have gotten elected if he hadn't been prosecuted for those documents? I agree that these types of things galvanize a population. Sometimes better to just let sleeping bears sleep.
In the sense that an offensive war - especially one that intentionally targets civilians and their families - rallies people around the flag and provides a boost of support to whoever is in power. The regime was organically declining in popularity. Israel’s war simply rejuvenated the regime’s supporter base without any meaningful gains on the ground. There was minimal impact to the enrichment campaign. And the fact t…
Israel has had nukes since the 1960’s, and has been wiping the floor with its adversaries since before even that. What changed now that would push Saudi Arabia and Turkey to get nukes? Nothing really. On the contrary: it is Turkey that’s projecting power in Syria, Libya and Somalia, and likewise Saudi Arabia projecting power in Yemen.
Israel’s war on Iran was an important piece in the way to the collapse of the regime. It exposed how incompetent the regime truly is in protecting Iran, and how the Iranian “ring of fire” project (masterminded by Qassem Suleimani) to encircle Israel with proxies, at a cost of tens of billions of dollars, was taken apart by Israel in the course of a year. All of this investment, in direct funding as well as sanctions over the past 40 years came to naught when Israel struck back. Mullahs were exposed as weak, irrelevant, only able to oppress their own.
Furthermore, Israel essentially decapitated the Iranian state apparatus in those 12 days. Everyone who mattered in the government and IRGC was killed. It just completely pulled the rug from under this regime.
I’m almost confident this is over. And with it there’s going to be a huge shift in Middle East politics. Likely more countries will align with Israel, but the removal of the primary Shia power might push the Sunnis to negatively fixate on Israel.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#89This looks like it might be the end for the current regime. There are still people getting information out, and they are tearing down and burning state buildings - around 3000 protesters killed since the crackdown began, but there appear to be tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people who have risen up against the ayatollah, with an unknown number of state forces and officials killed. Crazy start to the year.
It's possible, but remember that in an absence of any political or military rivals, you don't need the loyalty of the populace, only the military and police.
People love to remember the hits and forget the misses. They'll happily chat about how "hunger was the key to the French Revolution" while forgetting how many starved in the USSR, North Korea, China, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, etc...
They love to imagine that the suffering of a populace is some guarantee of both a revolution and the success of that revolution. For some reason the near-total destruction of Syria and ongoing conflicts in the MENA region don't seem to register. At this point I'm convinced that social media creates an environment that rewards wishcasting more than logical analysis based on precedent.
Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours
#90The timing is interesting, this would be much bigger news if the US wasn't on cliff's edge with someone behaving as a dictator.
This likely had some US aid. They are distributing Starlinks to Iranian protestors there and an Israel insider has bet on a strike soon.
Starlink is being jammed in Iran currently.