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The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

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Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#81

Post by RickS »

lelanthran wrote: post #47
jandrewrogers wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seattle used to have good food at reasonable prices. The extreme increase in costs, much of which is self-inflicted, has killed any restaurant that didn't both dramatically increase prices and cut corners on quality. Almost all of my favorite restaurants in the city are no longer around. Seattle had much better food 15 years ago. The average food quality has noticeably deteriorated at the same time as prices skyrocke…

> Seattle used to have good food at reasonable prices. The extreme increase in costs, much of which is self-inflicted, I'm curious about the self-inflicted part. How was it self-inflicted?

Unique to us, we have anomalously high minimum wages and a specific driver fairness pay law that makes for eye-watering delivery costs. This is on top of all of SF's problems w/ density, zoning, pricing out cheap indie spaces and the artist class that would put things in them, etc.

Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#82

Post by RickS »

doctorpangloss wrote: post #62
RickS wrote: post #35

This tracks with.... basically everything except the official numbers. I routinely see people who record their grocery prices finding increases that start in the 40% range. Certainly true for soda and snacks in my experience. There's a new second-order concern where I'm now alarmed by low prices. For example: I have no idea what johnsonville did to keep their brats at $4.99 over the past 5 years while the more local…

It’s not complicated. We also imported a lot of really cheap, high quality food from China. And now we don’t. Even if you personally were not buying Chinese tomatoes rebadged as Mexican in Grocery Outlet, the fact that they were one tenth the cost lowered prices on the produce you’ve been buying from Costco and Whole Foods. Indeed, the giant corporations have been litigating the tariffs issue as the single greatest c…

If you're referring exclusively to tariffs from the current admin, that doesn't really line up with the timeline on this, which started closer to the beginning of covid. I don't have a firm evidence-based take on the causality, but the vibes based take is a combination of actual input cost shock and bullwhip from covid, plus a lot of opportunism and greedflation/shrinkflation from corps that used the cover of the legitimate (BOM-driven) cost increases to squeeze hard on comparatively illegitimate cost increases. This situation was totally F'd way before 47 took office.

And then the tarrifs hit, which certainly does hurt. I was making desserts w nice belgian chocolate that went from $65 per 5lb to $90. So I'm not discounting the pain there, but the bulk of this effect seems to predate the tariffs, unless there are some from 46 admin or before that I'm not aware of.

Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#83

Post by trentnix »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #23
trentnix wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minimum wage goes up and buying power goes down as a result. This is the exact spiral that was predicted and dismissed as wrongthink. It has turned into another example of the Law of Salutary Contradiction: The Law of Salutary Contradiction states that when an event or policy is initially dismissed as impossible or a conspiracy theory, it is later acknowledged as occurring—but framed as beneficial and morally justifi…

This is false. When making a prediction like "X goes up and thus Y goes down", it matters what the relative changes are. The naysayers of increases in minimum wage say things like "if minimum wage goes up by $2.50, the cost of a fast food burger will become out of reach". In fact, the labor cost component of a fast food burger is minimal, and its price need only go up by a couple of cents in response (if, indeed, giv…

> In fact, the labor cost component of a fast food burger is minimal

Only if you are considering the wages of the employees at the fast food restaurant. But when it extends to employees involved in the logistics, processing, and farming its no longer minimal.

Tangentially, calling the rise in wages a "living wage" in SF/DC/NYC/etc. is folly to begin with and reveals minimum wage laws are based on sloganeering and not an economic analysis.

Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#84

Post by manfromchina1 »

OkayPhysicist wrote: post #51
testfrequency wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food is so much cheaper (and better) in LA than SF. SF has such mediocre food for what you pay compared to any other city I’ve lived in*. You either have to fork over a few hundred to experience some of the stellar fine dining options in the city, or end up at some brunch place that’s probably pretty decent but you’re not leaving without at least $100 between two people. The good food in the Bay Area I’ve always foun…

LA's food scene is unbelievably good. There are individual categories of food that other places have it beat on (for example, if I want a deep dish pizza, I'm probably better off going to Zachary's, or being in Chicago), but on a scale of "I can walk into a random restaurant with no research and expect a good to extremely good meal, with plenty of variety in such restaurants to choose from" to "Evansville, IN", I hav…

> I haven't been anywhere in the world that has LA beat.

I feel the same way about NYC and NOLA. Both have world class cuisine and the sheer diversity of NYC food scene can't be found anywhere in the US. And for whatever reason NYC style pizza is not as ubiquitous outside the NYC-NJ area.You can definitely find such pizza in Boston, but it cannot be found in every little corner in LA for example.

Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#85

Post by eddythompson80 »

RickS wrote: post #66
buildbot wrote: post #34

Mmm 14$ sounds nice! In Seattle a burrito is hard to find for under 17$ IMO. For example, a local and delicious place in a nearby liquor store has 18$ burritos: https://eltacolocoballard.com/seattle-ballard-el-taco-loco-f... Or a longtime establishment of the area offers 15$ ones - https://www.gorditosmexicanfood.com/menu#menu=burritos Granted these are massive compared to basically anywhere else.

Seattle is truly the worst of all worlds on food. Base price, delivery price, hours, quality, variety, we are omnidirectionally chopped. I'm in Portland often, SF sometimes, LA rarely, and in all of them you can get better variety for less money later at night.

Yeah, Seattle food is a lost cause. There is really no reliable-available-everyday type places here anymore. It's all becoming "super quirky and artisanal-we pretend to grow our own lettuce and provide great vibe" $25(+tip please to support our essential workers) BLT. Then, predictably, the place closes down once their lease is over. Rinse and repeat.

Even the old reliable mom and pop owned places (Tiryaki, Thai, Pho, Sichuanese) have all been hallowed out by what's been happening in the ID and have been transitioning to that "great vibe" model too as a last-ditch effort to survive. There was a bit of a resurgence of food trucks those last couple of years, but laws limit what can be made in a food truck.

Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#86

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

trentnix wrote: post #83
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false. When making a prediction like "X goes up and thus Y goes down", it matters what the relative changes are. The naysayers of increases in minimum wage say things like "if minimum wage goes up by $2.50, the cost of a fast food burger will become out of reach". In fact, the labor cost component of a fast food burger is minimal, and its price need only go up by a couple of cents in response (if, indeed, giv…

> In fact, the labor cost component of a fast food burger is minimal Only if you are considering the wages of the employees at the fast food restaurant. But when it extends to employees involved in the logistics, processing, and farming its no longer minimal. Tangentially, calling the rise in wages a "living wage" in SF/DC/NYC/etc. is folly to begin with and reveals minimum wage laws are based on sloganeering and not…

Employees involved in logistics are already likely earning more than minimum wage. Those involved in processing and farming likely do not live in the same jurisdictions.

Anyway ...

The basic idea is pretty simple: if you work 40 hours a week on minimum wage, you should be able to rent a reasonable condition 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom apartment relatively close to where you work.

That's not a "slogan", it's an idea that's been nominally central to The American Dream for more than a half century (but also largely untrue for the last few decades in many metropolitan areas).

Do you oppose this idea?

Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#87

Post by hackingonempty »

doctorpangloss wrote: post #73
hackingonempty wrote: post #58

The article claims "a burrito that cost $5.50 in 2014 is now $13.95" but I just checked one of the better SF Mission taquerias that has a web site with prices (Papalote) and used the Way-Back Machine and a carne asada burrito was $9.10 in Jan 2014 and is now $13.75. That's only 1.5X not 2.5X increase. According to the BLS CPI calculator, that $9.10 in 2014 has $12.61 of buying power as of a couple months ago, or $13.…

That may be. Okay, do you think you’d start looking for another opportunity if your cushy current job was like, “we’re reducing your salary by 9%”? You probably drive to a different gas station to save literally cents on a refill. It’s not so simple to frame the subjective feeling of what 9% is, even if I agree with you that the burrito isn’t that important.

You're right.

Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#88

Post by doctorpangloss »

RickS wrote: post #82
doctorpangloss wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not complicated. We also imported a lot of really cheap, high quality food from China. And now we don’t. Even if you personally were not buying Chinese tomatoes rebadged as Mexican in Grocery Outlet, the fact that they were one tenth the cost lowered prices on the produce you’ve been buying from Costco and Whole Foods. Indeed, the giant corporations have been litigating the tariffs issue as the single greatest c…

If you're referring exclusively to tariffs from the current admin, that doesn't really line up with the timeline on this, which started closer to the beginning of covid. I don't have a firm evidence-based take on the causality, but the vibes based take is a combination of actual input cost shock and bullwhip from covid, plus a lot of opportunism and greedflation/shrinkflation from corps that used the cover of the leg…

COVID was a trade shock too. It's trade shocks. That's the word - I carefully did not say, tariffs are to blame. Trade shocks are. We are in full control of tariffs, today, so that matters, don't misunderstand me. But it's a 100% consistent story with COVID and tariffs: trade shocks.

Of course, if given the ability now, finally, to charge whatever retail wants, you could say it's opportunism. But they didn't have the ability to do that until the trade shocks.

The thing people are in denial about is that it's everything. You are saying Belgian chocolate. Some people say iPhones. Blah blah blah. I'm saying, literally everything. Everything physical had prices that had to compare to lower priced, high quality imports from China and southeast Asia. They think that a sticker that says Mexico on their fruit means Mexico. They think stickers don't lie! Do you see?

Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#89

Post by JohnFen »

paleotrope wrote: post #74
linguae wrote: post #63

I quit eating out in the Bay Area over a year ago (except for socializing) because the prices feel painfully expensive to me while my pay hasn’t increased anywhere near the rate of restaurant price hikes. $14 for a burrito that cost roughly half as much a decade ago is painful, while my salary hasn’t doubled (I’m not a FAANG engineer). It’s not just burritos; it’s $10+ fast food combo meals, $15 deli sandwiches, etc.…

It's not just SF. The $10 lunch of 2015 is now $15. Default tipping of 20% on things that we never tipped on in 2015 (takeout, fast food) is also adding alot to the total cost. I don't know how people are affording the various delivery services and their fees on top of it.

> Default tipping of 20% on things that we never tipped on in 2015 (takeout, fast food) is also adding alot to the total cost.

Start declining those tips. We have to stop putting up with that BS.

Re: The $14 Burrito: Why San Francisco Inflation Feels Higher Than 2.5%

#90

Post by JohnFen »

Lucasoato wrote: post #53

Last year I attended the Game Developer Conference in San Francisco. This is a global event, in which people coming from different countries gather together to showcase their projects, chasing the dream. Many are independent developers, looking for the opportunity or investment that could change their life. To me, the fact that crêpes were sold at 20$ and cans of coke at 10$ at the event was a shame. The organizers t…

> cans of coke at 10$ at the event

Damn! It's been a couple of decades since I attended the Game Developer conference (thank goodness), but when I used to go, cans of soda were free.

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