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Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

andrewmccalip.com

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Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#81

Post by wmf »

cmgbhm wrote: post #59
wmf wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of it is easy but neither is cooling impossible as many people are saying.

Doing like an 8xh200 server ( https://docs.nvidia.com/dgx/dgxh100-user-guide/introduction-... ) is 10.2kW. Let’s say you need 50m^2 solar panels to run it, then just a ton of surface area to dissipate. I’d love to be proven wrong but space data centers just seem like large 2d impact targets.

Yeah, you need 50m^2 of solar panels and 50m^2 of radiators. I don't see why one is that much more difficult than the other.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#82

Post by GMoromisato »

mmooss wrote: post #23
GMoromisato wrote: post #16

> ...we should be actively goading more billionaires into spending on irrational, high-variance projects that might actually advance civilization. I feel genuine secondhand embarrassment watching people torch their fortunes on yachts and status cosplay. No one cares about your Loro Piana. I 100% agree with this. There are ~2,600 billionaires in the world and we should encourage all of them to spend their money. Even…

> Any normal human being would retire and hang out on the beach with supermodels after all the abuse he has taken. First, he seeks and creates conflict. He isn't 'taking' abuse, except in the sense that he is reaching out and grasping at it. Everyone in that position takes lots of abuse. If they built their own fortune, they generally don't retire to the beach or they would have long ago.

I will agree that if he hadn't aligned himself with Trump/MAGA he would have a much lower profile.

But I think we'd be better off if taking a political position did not automatically piss off half the country. I think a lot of competent but normal people refuse the get involved in politics because of how toxic it is.

I wish Musk had stayed out of politics, but I'm glad he hasn't given up on Tesla/SpaceX just because of the enemies he's made. I think any normal person would have.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#83

Post by ikiris »

echoangle wrote: post #11
d_silin wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

specific software applications you can run in space that you can't run on Earth or can't run cheaper on Earth.

What’s software that would benefit from running in space? The only thing I can imagine is processing of data generated in space so you need less downlink or can reduce latency, everything else can be calculated wherever you want, no?

I think the point the original guy is hand wavingly getting at is the point of something like this is to avoid the possibility of say a FBI raid or Nuremburgish trials for a vast AI surveillance processing facility hub for other down looking satellites if they were to lose their newly acquired power, or similar technocratic ramblings / ideas like it would survive the end of society.

Its like that scene at the end of Real Genius, "Maybe somebody already has a use for it, one for which it's perfectly designed." Lets look at the facts: Impossible to raid, not under any direct legal jurisdiction, high bandwidth line of sight communications options to satellite feed points that would be difficult to tap outside of other orbital actors, Power feed that is untethered to any planetary grid or at risk of terrestrial actors, etc.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#84

Post by d_silin »

ikiris wrote: post #72
d_silin wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

specific software applications you can run in space that you can't run on Earth or can't run cheaper on Earth.

Don't be coy, please indicate the math that works differently in silicon in a zero g environment if its not some regulation dodge.

People in comments figured out half the answer already, the remaining half is left as an exercise for audience.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#85

Post by kragen »

zozbot234 wrote: post #19

Will these space-based data centers run on rad-hard silicon (which is dog slow compared to anything on Earth) or just silently accept wrong results, hardware lockups and permanent failure due to the harsh space environment? Will they cool that hardware with special über-expensive high-temperature Peltiers that heat the radiators up to visible incandescence so that the heat can be shed with any efficiency? There's zil…

At Satellogic, we famously flew mostly just regular cellphone parts on orbit. We did have higher rates of various kinds of failures than is usual on Earth, but hardware failure can generally be masked by software redundancy.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#86

Post by cindyllm »

GMoromisato wrote: post #16

> ...we should be actively goading more billionaires into spending on irrational, high-variance projects that might actually advance civilization. I feel genuine secondhand embarrassment watching people torch their fortunes on yachts and status cosplay. No one cares about your Loro Piana. I 100% agree with this. There are ~2,600 billionaires in the world and we should encourage all of them to spend their money. Even…

[dead]

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#87

Post by wmf »

danpalmer wrote: post #80
wmf wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

rad-hard silicon ... or just silently accept wrong results, hardware lockups and permanent failure Somehow I don't think those are the only options. AFAIK Starlink is using a lot of non-rad-hard silicon already.

Starlink is however operating at ~500km where radiation is less of a concern, but where the lifetime of a satellite is only 2-3 years. The unit economics of orbital GPUs suggest that we'll need to run them for much longer than that. This is actually one of the few good points of orbital data centers, normally older hardware is cycled out because it's not economic to run anymore due to power efficiency improvements, b…

I think they last 2-3 years after they run out of argon fuel, so more like 7-8 years total. It looks like some Starlinks from Nov 2019 are still operational.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#88

Post by mmooss »

GMoromisato wrote: post #82
mmooss wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any normal human being would retire and hang out on the beach with supermodels after all the abuse he has taken. First, he seeks and creates conflict. He isn't 'taking' abuse, except in the sense that he is reaching out and grasping at it. Everyone in that position takes lots of abuse. If they built their own fortune, they generally don't retire to the beach or they would have long ago.

I will agree that if he hadn't aligned himself with Trump/MAGA he would have a much lower profile. But I think we'd be better off if taking a political position did not automatically piss off half the country. I think a lot of competent but normal people refuse the get involved in politics because of how toxic it is. I wish Musk had stayed out of politics, but I'm glad he hasn't given up on Tesla/SpaceX just because…

> if he hadn't aligned himself with Trump/MAGA he would have a much lower profile

He's been possibly the world's leading troll since long before his MAGA phase. Let's be serious.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#89

Post by echoangle »

ikiris wrote: post #83
echoangle wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s software that would benefit from running in space? The only thing I can imagine is processing of data generated in space so you need less downlink or can reduce latency, everything else can be calculated wherever you want, no?

I think the point the original guy is hand wavingly getting at is the point of something like this is to avoid the possibility of say a FBI raid or Nuremburgish trials for a vast AI surveillance processing facility hub for other down looking satellites if they were to lose their newly acquired power, or similar technocratic ramblings / ideas like it would survive the end of society. Its like that scene at the end of…

That’s not how it works. Your state is responsible for your activities in space, so if you annoy other countries enough, your own country will regulate you. If they don’t, you could have just built the same thing on the ground in this country.

Re: Economics of Orbital vs. Terrestrial Data Centers

#90

Post by Terr_ »

I sometimes wonder if there are people out there who just read too much Neuromancer, and they think they can construct their own Tessier-Ashpool orbital dynasty.

I suppose there are several other Oligarchs In Space stories and movies since then, but if the point of the space station is to host AI, that narrows it down a bit.

Or perhaps it's performative, designed to spook gullible politicians into changing laws to "keep" businesses that were never actually going to go somewhere else anyway.

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