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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#81

Post by [deleted] »

mcv wrote: post #56
kscarlet wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The line right after this is much worse: > Coding performed by AI is at a world-class level, something that wasn’t so just a year ago. Wow, finance people certainly don't understand programming.

World class? Then what am I? I frequently work with Copilot and Claude Sonnet, and it can be useful, but trusting it to write code for anything moderately complicated is a bad idea. I am impressed by its ability to generate and analyse code, but its code almost never works the first time, unless it's trivial boilerplate stuff, and its analysis is wrong half the time. It's very useful if you have the knowledge and exp…

[deleted]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#82

Post by marcosdumay »

ozten wrote: post #52
Sprotch wrote: post #34

He thinks "AI" "may be capable of taking over cognition", which shows he doesn't understand how LLM work...

Why is AI limited to just a raw LLM. Scaffolding, RL, multi-modal... so many techniques which can be applied. METR has shown AI's time horizon for staying on task is doubling every 7 months or less. https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-14-how-does-time-horizon-vary-...

Because all the money has been going into LLMs and "inference machines" (what a non-descriptive name). So when an investor says "AI", that's what they mean.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#84

Post by formerly_proven »

mcv wrote: post #56
kscarlet wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The line right after this is much worse: > Coding performed by AI is at a world-class level, something that wasn’t so just a year ago. Wow, finance people certainly don't understand programming.

World class? Then what am I? I frequently work with Copilot and Claude Sonnet, and it can be useful, but trusting it to write code for anything moderately complicated is a bad idea. I am impressed by its ability to generate and analyse code, but its code almost never works the first time, unless it's trivial boilerplate stuff, and its analysis is wrong half the time. It's very useful if you have the knowledge and exp…

Copilot is easily the worst (and probably slowest) coding agent. SOTA and Copilot don't even inhabit similar planes of existence.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#85

Post by malfist »

mcv wrote: post #56
kscarlet wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The line right after this is much worse: > Coding performed by AI is at a world-class level, something that wasn’t so just a year ago. Wow, finance people certainly don't understand programming.

World class? Then what am I? I frequently work with Copilot and Claude Sonnet, and it can be useful, but trusting it to write code for anything moderately complicated is a bad idea. I am impressed by its ability to generate and analyse code, but its code almost never works the first time, unless it's trivial boilerplate stuff, and its analysis is wrong half the time. It's very useful if you have the knowledge and exp…

Is this why AI is telling us our every idea is brilliant and great? Because their code doesn't stand up to what we can do?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#86

Post by johnfn »

n8cpdx wrote: post #77
johnfn wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I save an incredible amount of time. I suspect I’m likely 5-10x more productive, though it depends exactly what I’m working on. Most of the issues that you cite can be solved, though it requires you to rewire the programming part of your brain to work with this new paradigm. To be honest, I don’t really have a problem with chunking my tasks. The reason I don’t is because I don’t really think about it that way. I…

Did you do 5-10 years of work in the year after you adopted AI? If you started after AI came in to existence 3 years ago (/s) you should have achieved 30 years of work output - a whole career of work.

I think AI only "got good" around the release of Claude Code + Opus 4.0, which was around March of this year. And it's not like I sit down and code 8 hours a day 5 days a week. I put on my pants one leg at a time -- there's a lot of other inefficiencies in the process, like meetings, alignment, etc, etc.

But yes, I do think that the efficiency gain, purely in the domain of coding, is around 5x, which is why I was able to entirely redesign my website in a week. When working on personal projects I don't need to worry about stakeholders at all.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#87

Post by marcosdumay »

_trampeltier wrote: post #44

Why is so much invested in AI but not in fusion power?

There is probably not any large market for fusion power as we conceive of it today.

You will get a different result if you revolutionize some related area (like making an extremely capably superconductor), or if you open up some market that can't use the cheapest alternatives (like deep space asteroid mining). But neither of those options can go together with "oh, and we will achieve energy positive fusion" in a startup business plan.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#88

Post by lowbloodsugar »

MontyCarloHall wrote: post #35
johnfn wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I only write around 5% of the code I ship, maybe less. For some reason when I make this statement a lot of people sweep in to tell me I am an idiot or lying, but I really have no reason to lie (and I don't think I'm an idiot!). I have 10+ years of experience as an SWE, I work at a Series C startup in SF, and we do XXMM ARR. I do thoroughly audit all the code that AI writes, and often go through multiple iterations, s…

>I only write around 5% of the code I ship, maybe less. >I do thoroughly audit all the code that AI writes, and often go through multiple iterations Does this actually save you time versus writing most of the code yourself? In general, it's a lot harder to read and grok code than to write it [0, 1, 2, 3]. For me, one of the biggest skills for using AI to efficiently write code is a) chunking the task into increments…

a) is exactly what AI is good at. b) is a waste of time: why would you waste your precious time trying to predict a result when you can just get the result and see.

You are stuck in a very low local maximum.

You are me six months ago. You don’t know how it works, so you cannot yet reason about it. Unlike me, you’ve decided “all these other people who say it’s effective are making it up”. Instead ask, how does it work? What am I missing.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#89

Post by lowbloodsugar »

This thread is just full of people discussing why industrial looms are bad. The factory owners don’t think looms are bad. You can either learn how to be useful in the new factory or you can start throwing shoes.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#90

Post by [deleted] »

sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

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