Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal • Hacker News Board

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#81

Post by am17an » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:40 AM UTC

arjie wrote: post #19

There's nothing dirty about this deal. When making a large deal with one vendor he didn't disclose to them that he was making a deal with another vendor. That's pretty normal when you're trying to buy a lot of stuff. Otherwise, they can collude to shake you down. I'm not thrilled about this genre of "guy I don't like does totally normal thing so it's bad". It's too engagement baity. EDIT: Though even that may be wron…

It's bad for consumers period. A deal that hampers 40% of global supply shouldn't be a thing, it's predatory. I know DRAM is not a necessity, but considering that PCs are going to be affected means this affects real things like schools and hospitals. There's being smart while making a deal and there's knee-capping the market with your leveraged to the tits business

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#82

Post by bluedino » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:41 AM UTC

Imagine the outrage if OpenAI built their own fab or memory factory. Like back when Henry Ford built his own steel foundry.

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#83

Post by semiquaver » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:43 AM UTC

intunderflow wrote: post #79

semiquaver wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Seems like it is Do you have a citation for what law is being violated? Or just vibes?

https://fortune.com/2025/11/23/ai-rivals-like-openai-nvidia-... Obviously kind of a moot point because whether it violates antitrust law or not, what is guaranteed is the US Government is not going to do anything

Whether the Clayton and Sherman acts apply to the Stargate initiative is not relevant to this RAM-hoarding activity.

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#84

Post by lukeschlather » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:46 AM UTC

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #72

mxfh wrote: post #20

Secondary RAM Manufacturing Had Stalled. Budget brands normally buy older DRAM fabrication equipment from mega-producers like Samsung when Samsung upgrades their DRAM lines to the latest and greatest equipment. This allows the DRAM market to expand more than it would otherwise because it makes any upgrading of the fanciest production lines to still be additive change to the market. However, Korean memory firms have b…

One of the big problems here is that all of the hardware companies have been burned by hype before (e.g. crypto). No one actually believes that these AI companies will still be around in 5 years so spending billions to build factories for them doesn't make sense.

I don't know what companies will be around 5 years from now, but I would bet there will be more demand for RAM and the price per GB will be at least what it was before this price shock.

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#85

Post by roadbuster » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:46 AM UTC

hamandcheese wrote: post #56

roadbuster wrote: post #40

> To be clear - the shock wasn’t that OpenAI made a big deal, no, it was that they made two massive deals this big, at the same time, with Samsung and SK Hynix simultaneously That's not "dirty." That's hiding your intentions from suppliers so they don't crank prices before you walk through their front door. If you want to buy a cake, never let the baker know it's for a wedding.

That's not the dirty part. This is the dirty part: > OpenAI isn’t even bothering to buy finished memory modules! No, their deals are unprecedentedly only for raw wafers — uncut, unfinished, and not even allocated to a specific DRAM standard yet. It’s not even clear if they have decided yet on how or when they will finish them into RAM sticks or HBM! Right now it seems like these wafers will just be stockpiled in ware…

> OpenAI isn’t even bothering to buy finished memory modules

And? Why should they be obligated to pay for all the middleman steps from fab down to module? That includes: wafer-level test, module-level test (DC, AC, parametric), packaging, post-packaging test, and module fabrication. There's nothing illegal or sketchy about saying, "give me the wafers, I'll take care of everything else myself."

> not even allocated to a specific DRAM standard yet

DRAM manufacturers design and fabricate chips to sell into a standardized, commodity market. There's no secret evolutionary step which occurs after the wafers are etched which turns chips into something which adheres to DDR4,5,6,7,8,9

> It’s not even clear if they have decided yet on how or when they will finish them into RAM sticks or HBM

Who cares?

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#86

Post by michaelmrose » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:46 AM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #68

mlsu wrote: post #11

Moves like this should be illegal. It's becoming increasingly clear that OpenAI is going to get lapped by Google on technical merits. So this is the "code red" solution? Supply shenanigans? They are getting beat in the developer market by Anthropic. And getting beat on fundamental tech by Google. This is a company whose ostensible mission is to "benefit all of humanity" ...

As in producers not over-producing RAM should be illegal? A presumably short-term price spike in RAM of all things is a non-issue. It is a luxury good that only a very small number of people care about and there is no reason to think this blip is going to last. Apple did stuff like this all the time at their high point in the late 2000s and early 2010s, and it would happen often in other markets. The world is not sta…

Who in developed countries doesn't buy computers and by extension ram

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#87

Post by sega_sai » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:46 AM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #34

Altman was already unpopular. After this will he be able to show his face in Silicon Valley?

I don't think Ellison is popular, but he seems to be doing fine with all his billions.

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#88

Post by riskable » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:48 AM UTC

ares623 wrote: post #32

JSR_FDED wrote: post #10

If OpenAI were actually using the RAM that’s one thing - but stockpiling raw wafers in warehouses is egregious.

Maybe they’ll build nice little forts with the wafers

If they do, it'll be a house made of glass.

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#89

Post by TranquilMarmot » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:49 AM UTC

LarsDu88 wrote: post #4

I wonder if this kills Valve's Steam Machine and Steam Frame

Yes, I have an older gaming PC from ~2018 that I keep putting off upgrading (first GPU prices skyrocketed, now this...) and was hoping to replace it with a Steam Machine next year. Will be endlessly bummed if that doesn't happen.

Will also be interesting if Sony/Microsoft was planning on releasing a next-gen system anytime soon, and I wonder if this will affect Apple's hardware at all.

Re: Sam Altman’s DRAM Deal

#90

Post by arjie » Sat, Dec 06, 2025, 1:51 AM UTC

JSR_FDED wrote: post #10

If OpenAI were actually using the RAM that’s one thing - but stockpiling raw wafers in warehouses is egregious.

Guys, these are silicon wafers not bars of steel. You can't just stockpile 40% of annual capacity in a warehouse long-term. I would be incredibly surprised to find that any such large scale storage facility exists. Any storage of undiced wafers is temporary while the manufacturing pipeline proceeds. You've seen the pictures of clean rooms and stuff. There's no way you spend all that effort to make the wafer and then just stick it in a warehouse. Who even is going to make such a large cleanroom facility? And for what exactly? It doesn't even pass the basic sniff test.

Much more likely this is just a detail of the contract so that OpenAI can guarantee allocation. I would be surprised if the actual wafers entered OpenAI hands before being fully packaged.