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30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

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Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#81

Post by tarsinge »

TylerE wrote: post #4
PaulHoule wrote: post #2

I like the idea of visible vs invisible here. It approaches what I think is one of the biggest issues of the day which is "Why do so many people think that the economy sucks when the official statistics don't look too bad?"

Trump has literally shut down many of the agencies responbible for making the reports. We live in a banana republic. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-seeks-to-fire-bu... https://www.science.org/content/article/republican-push-make... https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/federal... https://www.voanews.com/a/trump-administration-disbands-2-ex... https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-us-gover…

This phenomenon has been happening already under Biden. But it has been very difficult to discuss because like you everybody wants a narrative to blame the other camp. The statistics are good but people complain under Biden? They are brainwashed, and you are a conspirationist for daring questioning that the economy is not the best ever. Same thing happening under Trump? This time yes things are bad in reality and the statistics can’t be trusted. What about a third explanation that both parties are trying to hide the issue and lie to their base?

Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#82

Post by UncleMeat »

quantummagic wrote: post #3
PaulHoule wrote: post #2

I like the idea of visible vs invisible here. It approaches what I think is one of the biggest issues of the day which is "Why do so many people think that the economy sucks when the official statistics don't look too bad?"

Ignoring how easy it is for statistics to be misleading, let alone outright lies, the official statistics are rather mute on the topic of economic distribution. It doesn't matter how well an economy is doing, if the majority of wealth is accruing to a small minority.

But we see this effect in other cases too. People report that crime is up but when asked about crime in their area they report very different things. And crime is down, even for kinds of crime that are universally reported.

Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#83

Post by oompydoompy74 »

Peter Thiel is not a person that anyone should listen to. That being said if you want to see real poverty come to the South East and drive an hour outside of any major metropolitan area. These are folks that would likely be unhoused if they lived in a city, but are scraping by and making it work in a 40 year old single wide that is falling apart. Capitalism in this country works as it has been designed to since the Reagan administration. Socialized losses, privatized gains, and a massive transfer of wealth straight to the top. Innovation means nothing if we kill our planet and subjugate the masses.

Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#84

Post by treis »

landryraccoon wrote: post #68
treis wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what you're talking about. All of the things you mentioned have significantly improved over my life. I can bike around my city without it being a suicide mission, pre-Obamacare health care was way worse, crime and accidental deaths are down, and we got stuff like Headstart and free Pre-K. I don't know what progress in the material world you think are missing. This is what I mean by unrelentingly negative…

I'm sorry to say you're very out of touch. This rosy picture is objectively wrong when it comes to housing. Start with the fundamentals - construction has gotten more expensive. Unlike virtually every other industry in the US, it actually costs more to build residential housing per square foot (inflation adjusted) than it did in 1960. Construction workers in 2025 are *less efficient* than they were 50 years ago, desp…

This is what I mean by pervasive negativity. Well all those things got better but what about this other thing?

And this thing is nonsense too. Boomers aren't immortal. Eventually they will die and whatever housing constraint there is will turn to surplus.

Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#85

Post by quantummagic »

UncleMeat wrote: post #82
quantummagic wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ignoring how easy it is for statistics to be misleading, let alone outright lies, the official statistics are rather mute on the topic of economic distribution. It doesn't matter how well an economy is doing, if the majority of wealth is accruing to a small minority.

But we see this effect in other cases too. People report that crime is up but when asked about crime in their area they report very different things. And crime is down, even for kinds of crime that are universally reported.

How sure are you about those statistics? When police stop responding to calls, when nobody expects stolen property to ever be recovered, when people are afraid they'll be deported if they call the police... crime stops being reported.

Statistics are not worthless, but they can be worse than worthless if you are careless, or in the hands of the unscrupulous.

Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#86

Post by pants2 »

quantummagic wrote: post #85
UncleMeat wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we see this effect in other cases too. People report that crime is up but when asked about crime in their area they report very different things. And crime is down, even for kinds of crime that are universally reported.

How sure are you about those statistics? When police stop responding to calls, when nobody expects stolen property to ever be recovered, when people are afraid they'll be deported if they call the police... crime stops being reported. Statistics are not worthless, but they can be worse than worthless if you are careless, or in the hands of the unscrupulous.

Also two things can be true at the same time:

1. The neighborhood is so bad you'll be murdered for certain if you walk alone at night.

2. Murder rates are at record lows.

This just means hardly anyone's walking alone at night - but "crime rates are down".

Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#87

Post by UncleMeat »

quantummagic wrote: post #85
UncleMeat wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we see this effect in other cases too. People report that crime is up but when asked about crime in their area they report very different things. And crime is down, even for kinds of crime that are universally reported.

How sure are you about those statistics? When police stop responding to calls, when nobody expects stolen property to ever be recovered, when people are afraid they'll be deported if they call the police... crime stops being reported. Statistics are not worthless, but they can be worse than worthless if you are careless, or in the hands of the unscrupulous.

Car thefts are reported to insurance companies. Murders tend to be reported.

We also have the National Crime Survey, which simply asks people if they have been the victim of various crimes in the last year. No interaction with police whatsoever. This also tracks a huge drop in crime despite people insisting that "crime is up", especially when asked about the country broadly rather than their local region.

Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#88

Post by quantummagic »

UncleMeat wrote: post #87
quantummagic wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How sure are you about those statistics? When police stop responding to calls, when nobody expects stolen property to ever be recovered, when people are afraid they'll be deported if they call the police... crime stops being reported. Statistics are not worthless, but they can be worse than worthless if you are careless, or in the hands of the unscrupulous.

Car thefts are reported to insurance companies. Murders tend to be reported. We also have the National Crime Survey, which simply asks people if they have been the victim of various crimes in the last year. No interaction with police whatsoever. This also tracks a huge drop in crime despite people insisting that "crime is up", especially when asked about the country broadly rather than their local region.

What's your argument? That we're always privy to the truth, and that statistics are never in error, and are never crafted by people in service of an agenda? Okay, I guess, that's great for you. No reason to question anything, or think critically for yourself.

Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#89

Post by quantummagic »

pants2 wrote: post #86
quantummagic wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How sure are you about those statistics? When police stop responding to calls, when nobody expects stolen property to ever be recovered, when people are afraid they'll be deported if they call the police... crime stops being reported. Statistics are not worthless, but they can be worse than worthless if you are careless, or in the hands of the unscrupulous.

Also two things can be true at the same time: 1. The neighborhood is so bad you'll be murdered for certain if you walk alone at night. 2. Murder rates are at record lows. This just means hardly anyone's walking alone at night - but "crime rates are down".

Good point. It's just frustrating how many people spout the "statistics", and are happy to avoid such nuance in order to take solace in a comfortable narrative.

Re: 30 Days, 9 Cities, 1 Question: Where Did American Prosperity Go?

#90

Post by johnnyanmac »

UncleMeat wrote: post #82
quantummagic wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ignoring how easy it is for statistics to be misleading, let alone outright lies, the official statistics are rather mute on the topic of economic distribution. It doesn't matter how well an economy is doing, if the majority of wealth is accruing to a small minority.

But we see this effect in other cases too. People report that crime is up but when asked about crime in their area they report very different things. And crime is down, even for kinds of crime that are universally reported.

We can't really separate crime into "micro crime" and "macro crime". The highest incarcerated state is Louisiana with ~1000 in 100,000 imprisonment. So, 1%. Still feasible enough to never notice or be impacted by any crime as you go through your day to day.

Economics is entirely different.

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