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How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

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Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#81

Post by pants2 »

TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #21

> At the core of most definitions you’ll find the idea of a machine that can match humans on a wide range of cognitive tasks. I expect this definition will be proven incorrect eventually. This definition would best be described as a "human level AGI", rather than AGI. AGI is a system that matches a core set of properties, but it's not necessarily tied to capabilities. Theoretically one could create a very small resou…

While we're posting our favorite definitions of AGI, I like what Francois Chollet once said:

"AGI is reached when it’s no longer easy to come up with problems that regular people can solve … and AIs can’t."

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#82

Post by mlyle »

fragmede wrote: post #79
mlyle wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think "being able to do as well as a 50th percentile human who's had a little practice," on a wide range of tasks, is a pretty decent measure. Yes, that's more versatile than most of us, because most of us are not at or above the median practiced person in a wide range of tasks. But it's not what I think of when I hear "superintelligence," because its performance on any given task is likely still inferior to the be…

That seems like a personal definition for super intelligence. I don't think I'm alone in assuming super intelligence needs to be greater than all humans for it to be considered super vs "pretty good intelligence".

> > I think "being able to do as well as a 50th percentile human who's had a little practice," on a wide range of tasks, is a pretty decent measure.

> That seems like a personal definition for super intelligence.

I was giving a definition for artificial general intelligence as distinguished from super-intelligence, since the poster above said that most definitions of AGI were indistinguishable from super-intelligence.

To me, a computer doing as well as a practiced human at a wide swath of things is AGI. It's artificial; it's intelligence, and it's at least somewhat general.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#83

Post by fragmede »

mlyle wrote: post #82
fragmede wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like a personal definition for super intelligence. I don't think I'm alone in assuming super intelligence needs to be greater than all humans for it to be considered super vs "pretty good intelligence".

> > I think "being able to do as well as a 50th percentile human who's had a little practice," on a wide range of tasks, is a pretty decent measure. > That seems like a personal definition for super intelligence. I was giving a definition for artificial general intelligence as distinguished from super-intelligence, since the poster above said that most definitions of AGI were indistinguishable from super-intelligence…

Ah. I misread you then. Apologies.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#84

Post by uvaursi »

mateo411 wrote: post #59
jongjong wrote: post #55

Based on my personal experience, I feel like we've already had AGI for some time. Just based on how centralized society has become. It feels like the system is not working for the vast majority of people, yet somehow it's still holding together in spite of enormous complexity... It FEELS like there is some advanced intelligence holding things together. Some aspects of the system's functioning seems too clever to be t…

I think the AI winter was over by 2007. There was a lot of hype about machine learning and big data. The Netflix Prize for building a Recommender model launched in 2006. There was research on neural networks and deep belief networks, but they weren't as popular as they are today.

And then Netflix decided to churn out garbage that no AGI recommendation engine can redeem.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#85

Post by solumunus »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #71
solumunus wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly don’t remember many if any people saying that at all, those would have been extremely fringe positions.

It started with GPT-2 - not sure if OpenAI really believed it, or were just hyping it up, but they initially withheld public release of GPT-2 because it was "too powerful and dangerous"...

Obvious marketing if you ask me.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#86

Post by solumunus »

delusional wrote: post #51
solumunus wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly don’t remember many if any people saying that at all, those would have been extremely fringe positions.

From Sam's own blog: "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it." Another quote: "Trying GPT-4.5 has been much more of a 'feel the AGI' moment among high-taste testers than I expected!"

So not quite. We’re all aware that some players engage in Musk style marketing.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#87

Post by dr_dshiv »

mlyle wrote: post #77
dr_dshiv wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s like Peter Norvig’s definition of AGI [1] which is defined with respect to general purpose digital computers. The general intelligence refers to the foundation model that can be repurposed to many different contexts. I like that definition because it is clear. Currently, AGI is defined in a way where it is truly indistinguishable from superintelligence. I don’t find that helpful. [1] https://www.noemamag.com/a…

I think "being able to do as well as a 50th percentile human who's had a little practice," on a wide range of tasks, is a pretty decent measure. Yes, that's more versatile than most of us, because most of us are not at or above the median practiced person in a wide range of tasks. But it's not what I think of when I hear "superintelligence," because its performance on any given task is likely still inferior to the be…

Remember, that AI is a “jagged frontier.”

AI is already better than a 50th percentile human on many/most intellectual tasks. Chess, writing business plans, literature reviews, emails, motion graphics, coding…

So, if we say “AI is not AGI” because 1. It can’t do physical tasks or 2. it can’t replace intellectual human labor yet in most domains (for various reasons) or 3. , then it stands to reason that by the time we reach AGI, it will already be superintelligent (smarter than humans in most domains)

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#88

Post by mlyle »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #87
mlyle wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think "being able to do as well as a 50th percentile human who's had a little practice," on a wide range of tasks, is a pretty decent measure. Yes, that's more versatile than most of us, because most of us are not at or above the median practiced person in a wide range of tasks. But it's not what I think of when I hear "superintelligence," because its performance on any given task is likely still inferior to the be…

Remember, that AI is a “jagged frontier.” AI is already better than a 50th percentile human on many/most intellectual tasks. Chess, writing business plans, literature reviews, emails, motion graphics, coding… So, if we say “AI is not AGI” because 1. It can’t do physical tasks or 2. it can’t replace intellectual human labor yet in most domains (for various reasons) or 3. , then it stands to reason that by the time we…

> then it stands to reason that by the time we reach AGI, it will already be superintelligent (smarter than humans in most domains)

> > Yes, that's more versatile than most of us, because most of us are not at or above the median practiced person in a wide range of tasks. But it's not what I think of when I hear "superintelligence," because its performance on any given task is likely still inferior to the best humans.

> AI is already better than a 50th percentile human on many/most intellectual tasks. Chess, writing business plans, literature reviews, emails, motion graphics, coding…

Note the caveat above of "with some practice." That's much less clear to me.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#89

Post by xanderlewis »

nitwit005 wrote: post #76
xanderlewis wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But flying machines are well defined, or at least it's easily possible to come up with a good definition. 'A machine capable of transporting a person from a to b without touching the ground at any point in between', or whatever. For AGI, that's very far from being true.

People did genuinely struggle to define "useful flying machine", which is why you see the description of the Wright Brother's flight come with so much detail: "first controlled, sustained flight of a powered airplane".

> or at least it's easily possible to come up with a good definition.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#90

Post by croon »

tim333 wrote: post #64

The article is kind of silly like someone in the 1800s saying flying machines are a conspiracy theory. I mean obviously not - they were a proposed technology that hasn't been built yet but would in a while. I don't really get the point. I guess it's a discussion point of a sort. Maybe it's like those Weekly World News 'Gay Aliens Found' type headlines that get views for imaginative silliness?

Is it possible you're conflating LLM skepticism with overall AI (which is a label applied to something every decade or so) skepticism?

I don't believe LLMs with DLC will reach AGI, but I assume it will be happen at some point in the future.

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