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Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

calnewport.com

81–90 of 207 posts

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#81
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will adjust. And guess what, before photography, people managed somehow. People gossiped all sorts of stuff, spread malicious runors and you had to guess what's a lie and what's not. The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence.

> The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence. Which are inapplicable today. > We will adjust Will we? Maybe years later... per event. It's finally now dawning on the majority of Britons that Brexit was a mistake they were lied about.

[flagged]

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#82
This article makes the claim that OpenAI, and AI in general, is massively overhyped because OpenAI is looking to sell slop. I'm not sure I can agree with that basic premise.

Whether AGI does or does not materialize sometime soon doesn't matter. OpenAI, like every company who wants to raise massive amounts of money, needs to show huge growth numbers now. It seems like the unfortunate, simple truth is that slop is a growth hack.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#83

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

Here is the thing: we should never have trusted photographs and motion pictures.

Fakery isn't new, only the product of scale and quality at which it is becoming possible.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#84

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

We will adjust. And guess what, before photography, people managed somehow. People gossiped all sorts of stuff, spread malicious runors and you had to guess what's a lie and what's not. The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence.

We'll have to adjust, certainly. But that doesn't mean nothing bad will happen.

> People gossiped all sorts of stuff, spread malicious runors and you had to guess what's a lie and what's not.

And there were things like witch trials where people were burnt at the stake!

The resolution was a shared faith in central authority. Witness testimony and physical evidence don't scale to populations of millions, you have to trust in the person getting that evidence. And that trust is what's rapidly eroding these days. In politics, in police, in the courts.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#85
OpenAI is steering significant amounts of traffic away from Google and ChatGPT is a fairly common name that extends beyond awareness of the company (or even what the word it means specifically).

Not nearly on the level of "Kleenex" or "Google" as a term, but impressive given that other companies have spent decades trying to make a similar dent.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP has a point. Are these type of embeddings the best way to model thought?

Certainly not the best, just the most practical / commercially sell-able. And once a pattern, like LLM text embedding is established as the way to "AGI", it takes years for other more realistic approaches to gain funding again. Gary Marcus wrote about this extensively how legitimate AGI research is actually being put back years due to the LLM superficial AGI hype.

I think the best way would have been to assume thought is wordless (as the science tells us now), and images and probability (as symbols) are still arbitrary. That was the threshold to cross. Neither neurosymbolic, nor neuromorphic get there. Nor will any "world model" achieve anything as models are arbitrary.

Using the cybernetic to information theory to cog science to comp sci lineage was an increasingly limited set of tools to employ for intelligence.

Cybernetics should have been ported expansively to neurosci, then neurobio, then something more expansive like eco psychology or coodination dynamics. Instead of expanding, comp sci became too reductive.

The idea a reductive system that anyone with a little math training could A/B test vast swaths of information gleaned from existing forms and unlock highly evolved processes like thinking, reasoning, action and define this as a path to intelligence is quite strange. It defies scientific analysis. Intelligence is incredibly dense in biology, a vastly hidden, parallel process in which one affinity being removed (like the emotions) and the intel vanished into zombiehood.

Had we looked at that evidence, we'd have understood that language/tokens/embedded space couldn't possibly be a composite for all that parallel.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#87
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that we're already post truth. Just consider how a screenshot of a tweet or made-up headline already spreads like a wildfire: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1980221072512635117 Sora involves far more work than what is required to spread misinfo. Finally, people don't really care about the truth. They care about things that confirm their world view, or comfortable things. Or they dismiss things that are…

> Finally, people don't really care about the truth. They care about things that confirm their world view. Or they dismiss things that are inconvenient for their tribe and focus on things that are inconvenient for other tribes. People have always been this way though. The tribes are just organized differently in the internet age.

I strongly suspect future generations are going to look back on the age of trying to cram the entire world into one of several shared social spaces and say "What were those idiots thinking?"

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#88

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

Being convinced that real videos are AI is arguably a better position than being convinced that real videos convey the iron-clad truth.

Everything is manipulated or generated until proven otherwise.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#89
post #69
post #57

I could see Sora having a significant negative impact on short form video products like TikTok if they don’t quickly and accurately find a way to categorize its use. A steady stream of AI generated video content hurts the value prop of short form video in more than one way… It quickly desensitizes you and takes the surprise out that drives consumption of a lot of content. It also of course leaves you feeling like you…

Do people on the dopamine drip really care how real their content is? Tons and tons of it is staged or modified anyways. I'm not sure there's anything Real™ on TikTok anyways.

Thought the same. The human-generated content is just as brainless as the AI-generated slop. People who watched the first will also watch the latter. This will not change a lot, I think.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#90
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that adjustment could well be monarchy. I can't see how functioning democracy can survive without truth as shared grounds of discussion.

I don't think the US was a monarchy for its first hundred years.

> > I can't see how functioning democracy can survive without truth as shared grounds of discussion.

> I don't think the US was a monarchy for its first hundred years.

Did the US not have truth as shared grounds of discussion for its first hundred years?

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