AI Is Too Big to Fail

I think you've made a few common misconceptions about China and hopefully you'll let me clarify my argument by addressing them. But you are also right they are seeing a collapse in the birth-rates due to modernisation, the difference is that the Chinese economy is geared towards production, and not services - which is far less able to withstand population collapse (meaning these problems compound much more). So comparing them directly to the way western economies are trending is not always helpful. And it can be equally valid to compare their issues (cultural, political, economic) to other countries such as Japan, Korea, and the Phillipines (particularly for the male:female ratio issue).

> Becoming even richer won't help things at all.

There's 2 reasons this isn't the case:

1. The trend you're describing is more of a function of education levels, not wealth. Educations levels have an impact in 2 ways, making people aware there are other options (career, travel, wealth) and by making them aware of when they cannot afford children. Meaning an increase in wealth will increase the ability to afford children.

2. And you're assuming the average Chinese citizen earns as much (in PPP terms) as a western citizen. They don't (except in terms of manufactured goods) - it regularly requires multiple family members (parents, uncles/auths & grandparents) to contribute towards a property, and food is comparatively expensive. At least in the west this is still somewhat doable as a nuclear family. Meaning an increase in wealth (better distribution of the economy) will result in the ability to feed and house more children.

> China's birthrate has fallen like it has in other richer countries

You've missed the part where they implemented a multi-decade one-child policy. The dominoes are already set up for the largest population collapse we have ever seen in the next few decades.

> Freedom has little to do with the birthrate

I wasn't clear, sorry, this is the most complicated link in the chain - I mean economic, cultural, and political freedoms. Currently the Chinese are suffocating under all 3.

Economic freedom would increase birthrates by giving people money and time to meet others. 996+ work culture, living in factories, lack of holidays, and living with parents all hinder the baby making process. It would also make it easier for them to transition to a services economy so it's trends can be stabilised / less tied to raw population numbers.

Cultural freedom, culturally Chinese children must support their parents in old age - this has a lot of the younger generation tied up caring for (and funding) multiple people at once. This would include the parents (at a 2:1 ratio due to the 1 child policy) and potentially other members of the family (e.g. grandparents, or those who didn't have children). (Also not to forget the extremely skewed gender ratio which in of itself is a "cultural" problem which should be addressed)

The other cultural freedom issue would be immigration, but it has other issues (as the west is finding out) so lets not touch on that.

Political freedom would mean the freedom to change all the others, which is currently not possible because the government is interested in maintaining the status quo - both culturally (not to cause revolt) and economically (to maintain current production levels, i.e. 996+).

Look up the lying-flat movement, many people's reasoning for doing so lines up with one of these 3 pillars.

> make china poorer and therefore the birthrate would go up

Don't forget, many of the people who will become poor are currently college educated (and already under employed). The only stronger indicator for birthrates other than poverty is the education of women. Educated people know when they're too poor to support a family, and when there are other options to having children. If they get poorer, they're more likely to have less kids, not more.

What I really find really weird here is that when I buy stock in Apple, I do so because I think Apple will create new value.

But with AI the hope is that the value created will be proportional to wages being removed.

I.e. if AI creates more value, it means that the large majority of people will actually have less money, bar a few lucky ones. You have to remember that AI is being touted as the final solution to basically do all your administrative work for you, and all your software engineering.

So if it fails we all lose a lot of money because the stock market will drastically go down.

But I don't think humanity overall will be better off if it succeeds.

It's not AI that is losing trust, it's the US. It was always the US, the "West". They may invent fusion reactors tomorrow, if they can shut access to my assets on a whim, take direct hostile actions against their allies / my home, or I see they are at a brink of a deep societal chasm / civil war, if I see another economy outpacing them in industrial output, I will just not put my money there.

China modern culture is incredibly materialistic and status oriented. Women in China have extremely high requirements for a candidate mate in the money department, and paradoxically is a highly sexist society, which led to people aborting their female babies during the one-child policy era to ensure their only son would be a man. Because of that, China has a surplus of males in reproductive age, for a proportional lower stock of fertile age females compared to the population.

On the other hand, having kids outside marriage is frowned upon.

Frankly, there's no way out of an aged population followed by a drastic population reduction for China.

If anything, I would say the communist party is focusing on humanoid robots to meet the coming explosion in demand for aged care.

What can we even imagine that would be so transformative? Cold fusion? Wagyu synthesis from GMO yeast? Healthcare nanobots?

Whatever it invents needs costumers who haven't been driven into poverty already.

If we could replace the human serfs with robots, we're not even socially configured to yield the benefits. Seems like revolution or dystopian surveillance state are the only realistic options.