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McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

theregister.com

81–90 of 165 posts

Re: McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

#81
post #45

McKinsey has pitched my company on projects where their compensation is entirely outcome-based — for example, if a project generates $20 million in incremental revenue, they would earn 10% of that amount. I have to admit, the results they demonstrated — which we validated using our own data — were impressive. The challenge, however, is that outcome-based contracts are hard for companies to manage, since they still ne…

How is that hard? They put 90% of their estimated revenue as net revenue (post-McK tax) in the budget? Seems about as hard as the underlying problem, which is guessing ("forecasting") the revenue.

Re: McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

#82
post #45

McKinsey has pitched my company on projects where their compensation is entirely outcome-based — for example, if a project generates $20 million in incremental revenue, they would earn 10% of that amount. I have to admit, the results they demonstrated — which we validated using our own data — were impressive. The challenge, however, is that outcome-based contracts are hard for companies to manage, since they still ne…

What's upfront about a backloaded earnout? You model it as a fixed %, variable cost and run revenue sensitivities. It either meets your investment criteria or doesn't.

I'd imagine the opportunity cost and man power. Even though McKinsey should do the work they will need access to people and information to accomplish it.

Re: McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

#83

This is because they're trying to reduce the wrong headcount. The largest inefficiencies in corpo orgs lie in the ways they organize their knowledge and information stores, and in how they manage decision making. The rank and file generally have a really good grasp on their subset of the domain -- they have expertise and experience, as well as local context. Small teams, their managers -- those are the ones who actua…

I've wondered sometimes what the root of this dynamic is, and why corporations are as inefficient as they are. I've come to the conclusion that it's deliberate.

When I look at top-level decision-makers at my Mag-7 employer, they are smart people. Many of them were go-getters in their earlier career, responsible for driving some very successful initiatives, and that's why they're at the top of the company. And they're very intentional about team structure: being close enough to senior directors and VPs to see some of their thinking, I can tell that they understand exactly who the competent people are, who gets things done, who likes to work on what, and then they put those people at the bottom of the hierarchy with incompetent risk-averse people above them. Then they'll pull them out and have them report directly to a senior person when there's a strategic initiative that needs doing, complete it, and then re-org them back under a middle-manager that ensures nothing gets done.

I think the reason for this is that if you have a wildly successful company, the last thing you want to do is screw it up. You're on top of the world, money is raking in from your monopoly - and you're in zugzwang. Your best move is not to play, because any substantive shift in your product or marketplace risks moving you to a position where you aren't so advantaged. So CEOs of successful companies have a job to do, and that job is to ensure that nothing happens. But people's natural inclination is to do things, and if they aren't doing things inside your company they will probably be doing things outside your company that risk toppling it. So you put one section of the company to work digging holes, and put the other section to work filling them in, and now everybody is happy and productive and yet there's no net external change to your company's position.

Why even have employees then? Why not just milk your monopoly, keep the team lean, and let everybody involved have a big share of the profits? Some companies do actually function like this, eg. Nintendo and Valve famously run with fairly small employee counts and just milk their profits, some HFT trading shops like RennTech just give huge employee dividends and milk their position.

But the problem is largely politics. For one, owning a monopoly invites scrutiny; there are a lot of things that are illegal, and if you're not very careful, you can end up on the wrong side of them. Two, owning an incredibly lucrative business makes you a target for competition, and for rule-changes or political action that affect your incredibly lucrative business. Perhaps that's why examples of highly-profitable businesses that stay small often involve staying secret (eg. HFT) or being in an industry that everybody else dismisses as inconsequential (eg. gaming or dating).

By having the huge org that does nothing, the CEO can say "Look, I provide jobs. We're not a monopoly because we have an unfair advantage, we compete fairly and just have a lot of people working very hard." And they can devote a bunch of people to that legal compliance and PR to make sure they stay on the right side of the government, and it also gives them the optionality to pull all those talented people out and unmuzzle them when there actually is a competitive threat.

Re: McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, it’s much easier with a new organization. In my previous company, we would speculate about where to use AI and we were never sure. In the new company we use AI for everything and produce more with substantially fewer people

Does anyone want what you're producing though? I don't mean to be dismissive and crappy right out of the gate with that question, I'm merely drawing on my experience with AI and the broader trends I see emerging: AI is leveraged when you need knowledge products for the sake of having products, not when they're particularly for something. I've noticed a very strange phenomenon where middle managers will generate long,…

The anthropologist David Graeber wrote a book called "Bullshit Jobs" that explored the subject. It shouldn't be surprising that a prodigious bullshit generator could find a use in those roles.

Re: McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

#85
Occurs to me that AI is a fundamental threat to the likes of McKinsey. You bring in the consultants when you want to make a decision but don't want any of the responsibility for making it. In the future they'll just give that task to an anonymous AI. "Nothing we can do!"

Re: McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

#87
post #66

> For every $1 spent on model development, firms should expect to have to spend $3 on change management, which means user training and performance monitoring I think the general point here is true, but it's also brilliant framing from a company selling consulting services.

It couldn't get sillier. Oh wait!

> Price levels: How should vendors set price levels when the cost of inferencing is dropping rapidly? How should they balance value capture with scaling adoption?

This is written for B2B target clients as if it's pulling back the veil on pricing strategy and negotiating. Hire McKinsey to get you the BEST™ deal in town.

Re: McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

#88
post #45

McKinsey has pitched my company on projects where their compensation is entirely outcome-based — for example, if a project generates $20 million in incremental revenue, they would earn 10% of that amount. I have to admit, the results they demonstrated — which we validated using our own data — were impressive. The challenge, however, is that outcome-based contracts are hard for companies to manage, since they still ne…

Well, that's fucking scary. I'd be digging deep if I was on the board.

Either

- the execs are leaving a laughably easy 20m on the table McKinsey knew they'd make (how did they know, and why didn't we)

- they're dealing with insider information - especially dangerous if McKinsey is changing dependencies around.

- they're doing some creative accounting

Re: McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

#89
post #53

We have to accept that sometimes technology that was envisioned to change the future one way, may be beneficial in other ways instead - and that's okay. We are very clearly still in the phase of "throw AI at everything and see where it is useful." For example, just yesterday I was sent a contract to sign via DigiSign. There was a "Summarize contract with AI" button. Having read the contract in full, I was curious how…

I wonder if the AI summary could be legally perilous in this case

Easy to imagine that many organizations using it don't necessarily want the signees to really read the document in full anyway, much less get an informative summary with Reasons To Be Cautious of Signing as one of the summary categories.

Re: McKinsey wonders how to sell AI apps with no measurable benefits

#90
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's for investors AFAICT. When Masayoshi Son opens your home page it better say 'AI' in big bold letters. Is your product a search engine? It's AI now. [1][2] Is it a cache? Actually, it's AI. [3] A load balancer? Believe it or not, AI. [4] [1] https://www.elastic.co/ [2] https://vespa.ai/ [3] https://redis.io/ [4] https://www.f5.com/

whoa I'm out of the loop, what the fuck happened to redis?

Venture capital
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