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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

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Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#81

Post by mxschumacher »

gizajob wrote: post #35
hvb2 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And their promises. The "it'll make all your devs 6x as productive by the end of the year" types of promises. But those probably explain the valuations

Yeah, Sam Altman’s recent one saying that his LLMs would “cure cancer” if they built enough data centres was also a winner.

i have to say I'm a little disgusted by these statements. LLMs are useful for many problems, but is there really a conceivable path of them making progress into fighting the countless cancers tormenting humanity?

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#82

Post by ch4s3 »

zerosizedweasle wrote: post #36
blast wrote: post #29

He's (unsurprisingly) making an analogy to the dotcom bubble, which seems to me correct. There was a bubble, many non-viable companies got funded and died, and nevertheless the internet did eventually change everything.

The biggest problem is the infrastructure left behind from the Dotcom boom that laid the path for the current world (the high speed fiber) doesn't translate to computer chips. Are you still using intel chips from 1998? And the chips are such a huge cost, and being backed by debt but they depreciate in value exponentially. It's not the same because so much of the current debt fueled spending is on an asset that has ve…

There are probably a lot of cool and useful things you could do with a bunch of data centers full of GPUs.

- better weather forecasts

- modeling intermittent generation on the grid to get more solar online

- drug discovery

- economic modeling

- low cost streaming games

- simulation of all types

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#83

Post by downrightmike »

zerosizedweasle wrote: post #36
blast wrote: post #29

He's (unsurprisingly) making an analogy to the dotcom bubble, which seems to me correct. There was a bubble, many non-viable companies got funded and died, and nevertheless the internet did eventually change everything.

The biggest problem is the infrastructure left behind from the Dotcom boom that laid the path for the current world (the high speed fiber) doesn't translate to computer chips. Are you still using intel chips from 1998? And the chips are such a huge cost, and being backed by debt but they depreciate in value exponentially. It's not the same because so much of the current debt fueled spending is on an asset that has ve…

Intel chips from 2008, as there is no real improvements.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#84

Post by throwaway314155 »

He may be right, everything points to that conclusion. My main issue is - why the fuck do we care what Bezos thinks on this matter? His ML efforts all lag behind the competition and he’s certainly not an expert in the field of deep learning. Why?

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#85

Post by myhf »

bilsbie wrote: post #63
zerosizedweasle wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest problem is the infrastructure left behind from the Dotcom boom that laid the path for the current world (the high speed fiber) doesn't translate to computer chips. Are you still using intel chips from 1998? And the chips are such a huge cost, and being backed by debt but they depreciate in value exponentially. It's not the same because so much of the current debt fueled spending is on an asset that has ve…

We don’t have moores law anymore. Why are the chips obseleting so quickly?

FLOP/s/$ is still increasing exponentially, even if the specific components don't match Moore's original phrasing.

Markets for electronics have momentum, and estimating that momentum is how chip producers plan for investment in manufacturing capacity, and how chip consumers plan for deprecation.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#86

Post by sudohalt »

If you're asking yourself why hasn't the bubble burst when everyone is calling it a bubble it's because no one wants to stop dancing until the music stops. If you told an investor the market will collapse tomorrow with 100% certainty they will invest today like there is 0% certainty of it happening tomorrow.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#87

Post by square_usual »

saalweachter wrote: post #37
hiccuphippo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typos are proof something wasn't Ai written. Everyone should make at least one tyop in their writing.

Only worms until the typos get into the training data. You need to say at least one thing no one has ever said before in every post.

R9k wins again

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#88

Post by macNchz »

yeasku wrote: post #77
jorts wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the late 90s to 2001? Many people were still using modems at that time. Cable or DSL wasn't even an option for a considerable percentage of the population.

In 2000 6% of the population had access to internet. In 2002 I was woking making webs and setting up linux servers and I did not have internet at home.

This is pretty location specific—in the US 42% of households had home internet in 2000.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/189349/us-households-hom...

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#89

Post by rootusrootus »

zerosizedweasle wrote: post #36
blast wrote: post #29

He's (unsurprisingly) making an analogy to the dotcom bubble, which seems to me correct. There was a bubble, many non-viable companies got funded and died, and nevertheless the internet did eventually change everything.

The biggest problem is the infrastructure left behind from the Dotcom boom that laid the path for the current world (the high speed fiber) doesn't translate to computer chips. Are you still using intel chips from 1998? And the chips are such a huge cost, and being backed by debt but they depreciate in value exponentially. It's not the same because so much of the current debt fueled spending is on an asset that has ve…

> This is going to maim the economy in a generational way.

Just as I'm getting to the point where I can see retirement coming from off in the distance. Ugh.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#90

Post by Waterluvian »

blast wrote: post #29

He's (unsurprisingly) making an analogy to the dotcom bubble, which seems to me correct. There was a bubble, many non-viable companies got funded and died, and nevertheless the internet did eventually change everything.

Video game crash followed by video games taking off and eclipsing most other forms of digital entertainment.

Dot com crash followed by the web getting pretty popular and a bit central to business.

To all those betting big on AI before the crash:

Careful, Icarus.

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