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The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

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Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#81

Post by EcommerceFlow »

diggan wrote: post #74
EcommerceFlow wrote: post #54

- ChatGPT still lags for me daily and I'm on a PRO subscription. - SORA is usable but extremely slow and constrained. - Image gen same thing, but getting a bit quicker and less constrained. This is with agents not having taken off yet, and the vast portion of the world economy not interacting with LLM Ai? Agents alone will require ungodly amounts of compute. Bullish

> ChatGPT still lags for me daily What exactly are you referring to? Their UI seems to have troubles to load the list of conversations since like a week back, otherwise it seems fine? I mean, UX could be a lot better, but I'm experiencing anything I'd describe as "lag".

Outputting code mostly, especially compared to Gemini and Grok Fast. I'm using normal thinking mode, not extended or PRO.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#82

Post by james_marks »

JCM9 wrote: post #4

The current bubble is getting scary. When this thing pops the blast it’s going to be a real mess. The big tech firms will hurt, fire some execs in a show of “making changes,” do a bunch of layoffs across “AI” teams to show the market they’re pivoting and getting costs in order, and move on. The startups ecosystem will suffer extensive and catastrophic damage. The funding ecosystem will be set back years as this wipes…

What you’re describing is my understanding of how VC is designed to work.

I don’t even mean that as cynical— the model is designed to spread risk and let winners emerge, both in company leaders and technology.

That necessarily means periodic culling.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#83

Post by squidbeak »

diggan wrote: post #11
JCM9 wrote: post #4

The current bubble is getting scary. When this thing pops the blast it’s going to be a real mess. The big tech firms will hurt, fire some execs in a show of “making changes,” do a bunch of layoffs across “AI” teams to show the market they’re pivoting and getting costs in order, and move on. The startups ecosystem will suffer extensive and catastrophic damage. The funding ecosystem will be set back years as this wipes…

> I hope I’m wrong I kind of hope you're right. Any "hyped" industry/sector is bound to eventually needing to get back to reality, and focus on things that actually work, rather than spraying and praying prototypes and over-hyping them. The individuals and companies building real products that actually improve something will stick around, either as they are, or at least as ideas, and most of the interesting stuff ten…

Hard disagree. The correction you envisage to something smaller and more focused won't happen because this is also a race between nation states. The bubble is in the startups, and you're right to suggest many are doomed. But the AI giants have strategic national importance now, and won't be denied funding and resources while their foreign rivals continue to grow.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#84

Post by MarcelOlsz »

infecto wrote: post #76
MarcelOlsz wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Am I rich? What are you even on about. The only people I find harping on about some amorphous "value" floating around in the air are typically people with portfolios. >I can again spend a few dollars and turn unstructured data into structure. Saving 5 seconds on a 10 second task using an infinite amount more energy is not "value", it's garbage propped up by VC money and regular people are going to be paying for it w…

You’re confusing your frustration with some half-baked React scaffolding with the entire field. “Saving 5 seconds on a 10 second task” is just a strawman, there are workloads where it saves weeks, even months. If you can’t see that, fine, but don’t pretend your blind spot is universal truth. And spare me the VC boogeyman. The fact that capital flows into bad bets doesn’t erase the actual wins. We’ve had garbage propp…

I would pay good money to be this green again. I talk about regular people, and you revert back to spreadsheet efficiency. Classic tech guy response, just cannot see a bigger picture.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#85

Post by semi-extrinsic »

qsort wrote: post #22
diggan wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope I’m wrong I kind of hope you're right. Any "hyped" industry/sector is bound to eventually needing to get back to reality, and focus on things that actually work, rather than spraying and praying prototypes and over-hyping them. The individuals and companies building real products that actually improve something will stick around, either as they are, or at least as ideas, and most of the interesting stuff ten…

> I kind of hope you're right. I couldn't care less if big tech gets knocked down a peg, but in many quarters the AI boom is what's keeping the lights on. A market correction of that magnitude would mean a lot of pain for a lot of normal people, it's not exactly something I'm cheering on...

> A market correction of that magnitude would mean a lot of pain for a lot of normal people

A 1% increase in US unemployment results in thousands of excess deaths per year.

It is hard to be exact about the numbers, but the trend is clear and strong, see e.g. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3070776/

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#86

Post by bluGill »

diggan wrote: post #11
JCM9 wrote: post #4

The current bubble is getting scary. When this thing pops the blast it’s going to be a real mess. The big tech firms will hurt, fire some execs in a show of “making changes,” do a bunch of layoffs across “AI” teams to show the market they’re pivoting and getting costs in order, and move on. The startups ecosystem will suffer extensive and catastrophic damage. The funding ecosystem will be set back years as this wipes…

> I hope I’m wrong I kind of hope you're right. Any "hyped" industry/sector is bound to eventually needing to get back to reality, and focus on things that actually work, rather than spraying and praying prototypes and over-hyping them. The individuals and companies building real products that actually improve something will stick around, either as they are, or at least as ideas, and most of the interesting stuff ten…

That return to reality has happened many times in the past. It has happened several times before with AI! In every case with the worthless stuff the bubble was propping up we also lost a lot of useful things too and it generally took a decade for the people who had those useful things that the bubble could help with to realize they shouldn't have stopped investing with everyone else when the fad changed.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#87

Post by infecto »

MarcelOlsz wrote: post #84
infecto wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re confusing your frustration with some half-baked React scaffolding with the entire field. “Saving 5 seconds on a 10 second task” is just a strawman, there are workloads where it saves weeks, even months. If you can’t see that, fine, but don’t pretend your blind spot is universal truth. And spare me the VC boogeyman. The fact that capital flows into bad bets doesn’t erase the actual wins. We’ve had garbage propp…

I would pay good money to be this green again. I talk about regular people, and you revert back to spreadsheet efficiency. Classic tech guy response, just cannot see a bigger picture.

“I’d pay good money to be this green again” just reads as bitterness dressed up as wisdom. You’ve offered zero substance beyond sneering at anyone who finds use in the tools. If your whole argument is “I don’t like it so it’s worthless,” that’s not insight, it’s just cope.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#88

Post by alephnerd »

MarcelOlsz wrote: post #60
alephnerd wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize the startup you are working on would directly be impacted by any sort kf "AI Winter" right?

My startup is already dead in the water because I built it in an ADHD-fritz and only did it to spite a YC company, and in that regard I succeeded wildly because they threatened to sue me. Haha! I'm working on much cooler shit right now. Sick own though, checking my profile and all that.

It's not supposed to be a burn. My point is being flippant about a potential market crash under the assumption that you can somehow weather it out is extremely unrealistic unless you are a HNWI.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#89

Post by bluGill »

peterkap wrote: post #69
JCM9 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any big bust will have broader market implications, but I don’t think this has the broad systemic impact that the financial crisis did. It will likely be really ugly for those caught up in it, but a news story and minor blip to the 401k of everyone else. If you are well diversified keep your head down and keep going. If you’re a VC that heavily invested in AI, I suggest preparing for a Cat 5 hurricane now. The bigges…

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500 NVDIA makes up 7.5% of the S&P500. It will not be a minor blip to 401ks if it collapses.

NVDIA has plenty of other business and will not drop to 0. Even if they drop 75%, than is still only a 2-3% (the math on percentages is weird and I don't feel like doing it - and I shouldn't because a 75% drop is just a random number and so I have no significant figures to work with) drop in my 401k. Of course other companies will be hit as well, but still my 401k will not drop and more than any other stock market crash, and there is every reason to think it will recover. It might stop my plans to retire in the next 10 years (but they were of questionable realism anyway), but any longer than that and odds are it will recover.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#90

Post by vachina »

TrackerFF wrote: post #16

The thing is, the models do work. They add value to me each and every day, to a degree almost no other tech has done before. But that doesn't take away the fact that this is extremely expensive stuff (not for me, but for the companies pushing the envelope), far too expensive. And it is really taking its toll on other resources, like electricity.

Add what value though, enable you to write more slop to power more slop that requires more slop?
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