Live data from Hacker News

John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

youtube.com

81–90 of 91 posts

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#81
post #57

I am reposting something along the lines of a flagged and dead comment: This would be lend more credibility to the premise AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery if it came from someone who's Nobel (or work in general) were in a non-AI-centered domain. This is not a critique of his speech or points, but I think the lead implied by the (especially Youtube) title would hit harder if it came from someone whose work…

I don't understand how a scientist being awarded a Nobel prize in their field, using AI, does not add to AI's credibility as a useful tool?

It's a bit circular if the scientist's field (and prize) are for contributions to AI.

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#82
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the LLM comes up with the big ideas and tells a human technical assistant to execute (put the vial here, run the 3D printer with this file, put the object there, drive in a screw), would that help? No, because the bottleneck isn't the thinking but running experiments. I worked in solar research, assembling a cell to test implied 40 different steps and from beginning to testing it was around 4 to 5 days. This mea…

In biochemistry there are multiple vendors that sell semi-to-fully automated setups that do large numbers of experiments in parallel. I have no idea what solar research experimentation looks like in detail, is it theoretically possible to build similar setups for that use case? Where exactly is the bottleneck?

Of course robotics can do a lot, it's process dependent.

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it was a sure thing, why publish the paper they did? Why not just solve NS?

It will take another few months at least, and the rest of the argument will comprise a fair few pages. But the hardest part is over. When working toward a problem of this magnitude, it is natural to release papers stepwise to report progress toward the solution. Perelman did the same for the Poincare conjecture. Folks knew the problem was near a solution once the monotonicity proof of the W functional came out.

> Folks knew the problem was near a solution once the monotonicity proof of the W functional came out.

This isn't true, it was a major accomplishment but by far the easiest part of Perelman's papers and not actually even part of the proof of the Poincaré conjecture.

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the PR is making it seem that Deepmind is not standing on the shoulder of giants, when in fact it very much is. The paper itself makes this clear. I wish them luck!

To add to this, I think it is important to recognise that this is not fundamentally a Deepmind project; engineers from Deepmind came to help with the computational aspects to bring the error down after the lead and last authors brilliantly realised this approach would work with a proof of concept back in 2023. A good amount of work from Deepmind was involved, but I don't like the idea that they could get all the cred…

> brilliantly realised

Can you say more about this? Nothing about this approach seems very amazing to me. Construct an approximate solution by some numerical method (in this case neural networks), prove that a solution which is close enough to satisfying the equation can be perturbed to an exact solution. Does the second half use some nonstandard method?

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#85
post #2

First jump that computers gave us : speed. With excess of speed came the ability to brute force many problems. Next jump given by AI (not LLMs specifically, I mean “machine learned systems” in general) is navigation. Even with large amounts of speed some problems are still impractically large, we are using AI to better explore that space, by navigating it smarter, rather than just speeding through it combinatorially.

No evidence so far that "AI" has improved our general optimization capabilities. At all. Still at the top of the benchmarks of integer optimization by huge margin are the traditional usual suspects. Same in constraint programming and SAT.

> No evidence so far that "AI" has improved our general optimization capabilities. At all.

Uh, ok, I didn't claim that. At All.

Deep Learning machine learned features have definitely helped us (meaning my company) over hand engineered features, allowing us to navigate our problem space significantly faster

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#86
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The architecture of the current models where learning is a separate and very expensive process make runaway self improvement seem like something that will require a bunch of breakthroughs in order to happen.

That seems reasonable, but I'm not sure if we really know yet. If current models are given direction and control to change how the next model is trained or architected it seems plausible that they could stumble into such a breakthrough. The current LLM approach makes huge assumptions, including that training only on text prediction is enough to simulate true intelligence. That may or may not be a valid assumption, bu…

I doubt there will be a sudden run away. Probably more of a gradual shift where humans and AI combine to improve the AI and gradually the AI does more of the work.

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add to this, I think it is important to recognise that this is not fundamentally a Deepmind project; engineers from Deepmind came to help with the computational aspects to bring the error down after the lead and last authors brilliantly realised this approach would work with a proof of concept back in 2023. A good amount of work from Deepmind was involved, but I don't like the idea that they could get all the cred…

> brilliantly realised Can you say more about this? Nothing about this approach seems very amazing to me. Construct an approximate solution by some numerical method (in this case neural networks), prove that a solution which is close enough to satisfying the equation can be perturbed to an exact solution. Does the second half use some nonstandard method?

This is one of those things that seems easy in retrospect, but wasn't particularly obvious at the time.

1. Proving existence to a differential equation using a numerical approximation is quite a bit more difficult than it seems at first. For Euler or NS, it seems almost absurd. Not only do you need a rather substantial amount of control over the linearisation, you need a way to rigorously control a posteriori error. This is easy for polynomials, but doing it for other models requires serious techniques that have only been created recently (rigorous quadrature via interval arithmetic).

2. Further to that, neural networks are far from an obvious choice. They are not exactly integrable and it is certainly not clear a priori that their biases would help to search for a blowup solution. In fact, I would have initially said it was a poor choice for the task. You also need to get it to a certain degree of precision and that's not easy.

3. The parameterisation of the self-similar solution turns out to be completely appropriate for a neural network. To be fair, solutions of this type have been considered before, so I'm willing to chalk this down to luck.

It's difficult to explain how challenging it is to fully derive a plan for a computationally-assisted proof of this magnitude unless you've tried it yourself on a new problem. At the end it seems completely obvious, but only after exhausting countless dead ends first.

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will take another few months at least, and the rest of the argument will comprise a fair few pages. But the hardest part is over. When working toward a problem of this magnitude, it is natural to release papers stepwise to report progress toward the solution. Perelman did the same for the Poincare conjecture. Folks knew the problem was near a solution once the monotonicity proof of the W functional came out.

> Folks knew the problem was near a solution once the monotonicity proof of the W functional came out. This isn't true, it was a major accomplishment but by far the easiest part of Perelman's papers and not actually even part of the proof of the Poincaré conjecture.

Interesting, this was the big 'a-ha' moment in the grad course I took on the subject. Surgery was clearly important too, but this seemed to be more apparent from Hamilton's work. The W functional was what provided the control needed. Also, calling it 'easy' feels like it dismisses the insights necessary to have developed the functional in the first place.

Happy to be corrected on this; I wasn't an active mathematician at the time, so everything I know comes from other accounts.

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#89

I'll share something as a former solar researcher. Scientific progress is heavily influenced by how many bodies you can throw at a problem. The more experiments you can run, with more variety and angles the more data you can get, the higher the likelihood of a breakthrough. Several huge scientist are famous not because they are geniuses, but because they are great fundraisers and can have 20/30/50 bodies to throw at…

>But given that LLMs cannot interact with the real world

Yes they can...VLAs exist.

Re: John Jumper: AI is revolutionizing scientific discovery [video]

#90
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems reasonable, but I'm not sure if we really know yet. If current models are given direction and control to change how the next model is trained or architected it seems plausible that they could stumble into such a breakthrough. The current LLM approach makes huge assumptions, including that training only on text prediction is enough to simulate true intelligence. That may or may not be a valid assumption, bu…

I doubt there will be a sudden run away. Probably more of a gradual shift where humans and AI combine to improve the AI and gradually the AI does more of the work.

I'd agree that seems more likely. Though I can only make that expectation with public knowledge of what these AI companies say they're working on. I don't know what research projects or yet-to-be-released architectures may currently exist - my confidence in that assumption of likelihood isn't very high.

More importantly, I think we agree a sudden run away is possible, we don't have safeguards in place, and the risks are extremely high should that happen.

Post reply on HN