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Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

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Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#81

> Three things explain this. First,... Second, attempts to give models more tasks have run into legal hurdles: regulators and medical insurers so far are reluctant to approve or cover fully autonomous radiology models. Third, even when they do diagnose accurately, models replace only a small share of a radiologist’s job. Human radiologists spend a minority of their time on diagnostics and the majority on other activi…

I only came to this thread to say that this is completely untrue: >Human radiologists spend a minority of their time on diagnostics and the majority on other activities, like talking to patients and fellow clinicians. The vast majority of radiologists do nothing other than: come in (or increasingly, stay at home), sit down at a computer, consume a series of medical images while dictating their findings, and then go h…

>consume a series of medical images while dictating their findings, and then go home.

In the same fashion as construction worker just shows up, "performs a series of construction tasks", then go home. We just need to make a machine that performs "construction tasks" and we can build cities, railways and road networks for nothing but the cost of the materials!

Perhaps this minor degree of oversimplification is why the demise of radiologists have been so frequently predicted?

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#82
post #29
post #5

In 2016, Geoffrey Hinton – computer scientist and Turing Award winner – declared that ‘people should stop training radiologists now’. If we had followed every AI evengelist sugestion the world would have collapsed.

People love to bring this up, and it was a silly thing to say -- particularly since he didn't seem to understand that radiologists only spend a small part of their time reading scans. But he said it in the context of a Q&A session that happened to be recorded. Unless you're a skilled politician who can give answers without actually saying anything, you're going to say silly things once in a while in unscripted settin…

It's the power of confidence and credentials in action. Which is why you should, when possible, look at the underlying logic and not just the conclusion derived from it. As this catches a lot of fluff that would otherwise be Trojan-Horsed into your worldview.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#83

>"they struggle to replicate this performance in hospital conditions" Are there systematic reasons why radiologists in hospitals are inaccurately assessing the AI's output? If the AI models are better than humans in testing novel data then, well, the thing that has changed in a hospital situation compared to the AI-Human testing environment is not the AI, it is the human, under less controlled constraints, additional…

For anomaly systems like this, is it effective to invert the problem by not include the ailment/problem in the training data, then looking for a "confused" signal rather than a "x% probability of ailment" type signal?

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#84

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

It's not about optimism. It is well established in the industry that Tesla's hardware-stack gives them 98% accuracy at the very most. But those voices are drowned by the marketing bravado.

In the case of Musk it has worked out. His lies have earned him a fortune and now he asks Tesla to pay him out with a casual 1 trillion paycheck.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#85

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

> thought that trucking industry is changed forever

What I find really crazy is that most trains are still driven by humans.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#86
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why you write 2021? It clearly says 2016. I mean if you change the data to fit your argument you will always make it look correct. Lets assume we stop in 2016 like he said, where do we get the 1000 radiologist the US needs a year?

> the training lasts 5 years. At the end of their training the year is 2021 The training lasts 5 years, 2021 - 5 = 2016 If they stopped accepting people into the radiologist program but let people already in to finish, then you would stop having new radiologist in 2021.

Training is a lot longer than that in Québec, radiology is a specialty, so they must first do their 5 years in medicine, followed by a 5 year diagnostic radiology residency program. And it's frequently followed by a 2 years fellowship.

So 5 + 5 + [0,2] is [10,12] years of training.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#87
It's interesting to see people fighting so hard to preserve these jobs. Do people want to work that badly? If a magic wand can do everything radiologists can do, would we embrace it or invent reasons to occupy 40+ hours a week of time anyway? If a magic wand, might be on the horizon, shouldn't we all be fighting to find it and even finding ways to tweak our behaviors to maximize the amount of free time that could be generated?

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#88

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

> thought that trucking industry is changed forever What I find really crazy is that most trains are still driven by humans.

I think it's the matter of scale. Way more truck drivers than locomotive engineers.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#89

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

For trucking I think self driving can be, in the short term, an opportunity for owner-operators. An owner-operator of a conventional truck can only drive one truck at a time, but you could have multiple self driving trucks in a convoy led by a truck manned by the owner-operator. And there might be an even greater opportunity for this in Europe thanks to the low capacity of European freight rail compared to North America.
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