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Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

whitehouse.gov

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Re: Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but there’s a balance that employers have to maintain to get some in-state advantages from local or state governments for job creation True! The issue is local, state, and federal governments gives limited benefits compared to CEE countries, Israel, India, and others who roll the red carpet with multi-year tax holidays, subsidizes, and targeted hiring pipelines. > makes more sense for America to get trainers or pro…

> such a stupid approach What do you think of this alternate one? Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately. This removes the "unfair" aspect of h1bs being cheaper to hire.

> Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately

Exactly.

That solves the problem of consultancies and firms trying to abuse the H1B program as indentured servitude, and makes it easier for those in that kind of a situation to demand a higher salary.

In product companies, someone on a work visa is paid comparable to an American, and bringing a foreign nation on site is already a bit of a wash savings wise.

That said, with this announcement the ship has sailed, because having to spend $100k per year per H1B filing on top of the salary premium of hiring in the US just made opening a GCC/offshoring even more cost effective. For the top 20% of talent in CEE and India, you're already seeing TC break that $100k mark. The issue is there just aren't enough people in the US in certain subdomains with the right skills.

I blame CS programs over the last 10 years for that by trying to overleverage "Leetcode" and "Fullstack" style courses and increasingly reducing specialized courses.

A CSE major at a decent program in India or the CEE will have studied algorithms, digital signals processing, OS internals, and computer architecture along with the option to take further electives in a specialization of their choice (ML, Security, Systems, HCI, etc). They are much more "well-rounded" for technical roles because they will have dipped their toes in 2-3 technical subfields and did their "data structures" equivalent.

In my subfield (cybersecurity) it's been almost impossible to find the right talent at scale of OS internals, systems programming, CompArch, and CUDA+Infiniband experience in the US for the past 5-7 years. As such, there is a generational skill gap, because there is a gap of people who should be mid-career now but don't exist domestically.

And it's not something a "bootcamp" can solve either. The reality is, if we need to spend 2-3 years retraining people domestically with table stake skills like algos, OS internals, and other courses that are expected in a CS major, we should also dramatically reduce salaries for those employees, becuase I can't justify paying $150k for a bootcamp grad. At $50k-80k the math works out to only hire domestically with that level of skill while also offering training like the ASU BSCS program.

Re: Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

#83
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Global Capability Center - think offshoring, except now you have a VP or GM assigned at that office, and a couple of P/L owning PMs and Eng Directors and actual IP being created. Basically, back office work offshoring like in the 2000s is dead. Now entire revenue generating or complex IP product lines are being produced by offshore teams. GCP's Security and K8s portfolio is a good example of that or that team at Face…

One personal pet peeve I have is using obscure (and in this case, non-Google-able) acronyms. Its easy to just give the full name once, then use the acronym after.

> in this case, non-Google-able

The first two hits I get are for Gnu GCC and the Accenture article explaining what a GCC is.

Re: Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

#84
post #79
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem good at using the tools of data. Stick to that. We need more people like you. Don’t let clever phrasing dim your shine. Hanlon’s razor is in that group of things the expert class is supposed to say so the expert class doesn’t use the tools of data on their masters and attempt to convict them. Along with Occam’s razor, correlation does not imply causation, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,…

Please take the AI slop elsewhere

Yes, that’s another good one. I’ve added “AI slop” to the list of low effort red flag phrases people say when they turn their brain off and delegate their thinking to a meme complex.

These were from a note on my phone. Originally I heard the idea from Eric Weinstein on some podcast, maybe Chris Williamson’s. Eric only mentioned a few examples, and the rest I added over time as I heard them. The meme complex idea I heard from Daniel Schmachtenberger, also some podcast.

Another variation would be when you can take someone’s response and apply it broadly to anything. Like when low effort “debunkers” like Michael Shermer reply with “well humans are notoriously bad at eye witness testimony, and let me explain confirmation bias, and a dozen other cognitive biases”, which of course doesn’t address (or even mention) the UFO or whatever topic they’re discussing. It’s a neat trick where you can just dismiss anything without ever mentioning the thing being dismissed.

Re: Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

#85
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One personal pet peeve I have is using obscure (and in this case, non-Google-able) acronyms. Its easy to just give the full name once, then use the acronym after.

> in this case, non-Google-able The first two hits I get are for Gnu GCC and the Accenture article explaining what a GCC is.

Google's search results are personalized by geolocation and user history. When I Google for GCC, the first page of links has no results for Global Capability Center. The first page has GNU Compiler Collection, Gulf Cooperation Council, two community colleges, a manufacturer of laser engravers, and a manufacturer of cement and aggregates.

The AI Summary box at the top of the page does have Global Capability Center, but it's far enough down that you have to expand the summary box to see that meaning.

Re: Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> such a stupid approach What do you think of this alternate one? Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately. This removes the "unfair" aspect of h1bs being cheaper to hire.

> Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately Exactly. That solves the problem of consultancies and firms trying to abuse the H1B program as indentured servitude, and makes it easier for those in that kind of a situation to demand a higher salary. In product compani…

I'm seeing a mismatch between what was said in news articles and by the govt officials as well as trump in the video, and what is written in the official order[1]

Considering your background, what is your take on this? Many folks I know who are on H1-B don't know what to believe

[1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/rest...

Re: Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> such a stupid approach What do you think of this alternate one? Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately. This removes the "unfair" aspect of h1bs being cheaper to hire.

> Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately Exactly. That solves the problem of consultancies and firms trying to abuse the H1B program as indentured servitude, and makes it easier for those in that kind of a situation to demand a higher salary. In product compani…

> A CSE major at a decent program in India or the CEE will have studied algorithms, digital signals processing, OS internals, and computer architecture along with the option to take further electives in a specialization of their choice (ML, Security, Systems, HCI, etc). They are much more "well-rounded" for technical roles because they will have dipped their toes in 2-3 technical subfields and did their "data structures" equivalent.

I am sorry but this seems to lack complete awareness of the standards of many U.S. CS and computer engineering programs.

Re: Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

#88
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately Exactly. That solves the problem of consultancies and firms trying to abuse the H1B program as indentured servitude, and makes it easier for those in that kind of a situation to demand a higher salary. In product compani…

> A CSE major at a decent program in India or the CEE will have studied algorithms, digital signals processing, OS internals, and computer architecture along with the option to take further electives in a specialization of their choice (ML, Security, Systems, HCI, etc). They are much more "well-rounded" for technical roles because they will have dipped their toes in 2-3 technical subfields and did their "data structu…

I'm American. I literally did an AB in CS with a secondary in Government back when Obama was still in office. It was an Ivy and we were not required to take OS or CompArch classes (the OS class is now a requirement recently from what I've heard).

Outside of 10 universities (Stanford, MIT, CMU, Cal, UIUC, GT, UMich, UCLA, UW, UT Austin), there isn't much of a point to run campus hiring events or building a pipeline unless alumni help build that pipeline (B10s not mentioned are a great example of that) or it's a local school (SJSU for the Bay, NCSU for RTP).

For cybersecurity and DevSecOps at least, it's legitimately difficult to justify campus hiring in the US when you can hire or fund an IDF, PMO, or Police cybersecurity alum who went to TAU or BGU for around 70-100% of what you would pay an American new grad.

An experienced hire in the US ends up becoming much more expensive and still has a skill gap compared to an equally mid-career hire in Israel.

And if I want to cut costs, it's easy to poach from the various OS development teams in CEE and India, because much of the IBM-Red Hat, IBM AIX, Oracle Linux, and MS Windows Kernel orgs were offshored decades ago.

If I can hire a new grad from IITB (India) or TAU (Israel) for a base salary between $30,000 (India) to $90,000 (Israel) it's much cheaper than hiring the handful of new grads in the US with a similar skillset for $120k-140k base, especially when HFTs like Citadel or HRT are targeting the same candidates at the same unis for their SWE roles.

> and computer engineering programs

CE/ECE programs do require those classes, but the total number of grads from these programs is around 19k [0] for all degree levels (from BS to PhD), and most of the Masters and Doctorate candidates are themselves in the OPT-to-H1B pipeline.

[0] - https://datausa.io/profile/cip/computer-engineering

Re: Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. But a Friday night massacre isn’t exactly a great policy fix though, n’est-ce pas?

I'd preface this by saying I'm a not fan of Trump or the direction he is aiming for in general. But when the circumstances are that opportunistic actors have been behaving badly for many years and adjusting to small and medium changes in laws that they see coming, Friday night massacres are exactly what's needed . What would be nice (but unlikely) is a similar health care sea change.

No, absolutely not, never. This is terrible, this kind of thing is terrible, and it comes with a terrible human toll.

Re: Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately Exactly. That solves the problem of consultancies and firms trying to abuse the H1B program as indentured servitude, and makes it easier for those in that kind of a situation to demand a higher salary. In product compani…

I'm seeing a mismatch between what was said in news articles and by the govt officials as well as trump in the video, and what is written in the official order[1] Considering your background, what is your take on this? Many folks I know who are on H1-B don't know what to believe [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/rest...

We are only talking about Software - other industries like nursing and academia are way more severely impacted.

If you're on an H1B doing basics terraform scripting or maintenance work, your job is already in the process of being automated using a CodeGen tool being monitored by a senior engineer (be they located domestically or abroad).

If you a new H1B employee working at GCP's Sunnyvale office, you will most eventually be transferred to an office in India, Canada, and maybe the UK.

In neither case is new grad and early career hiring within the US going to pick up. And if you have been unemployed for an extended period (more than 6 months), well I'd recommend reading PG's article about building "Ramen Profitable" startups.

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The H1B market in software is bimodal with mass consultancies like WITCH (India), EPAM (Eastern Europe), and Globant (LatAm) who are overwhelmingly screwed because their business model is messed up, and you have people on an H1B who are basically working at a FAANG or FAANG equivalent and who are earning the same salary as citizens - these companies already began the process of offshoring 3-5 years ago when remote work kicked in because much of the CEE and India began giving massive federal and state industrial subsidizes to open offshore offices in IT Parks (and had been doing so for decades).

Short term it's a headache for companies with a large OPT-to-H1B pipeline and they will most likely do mass layoffs or push people to work at GCCs abroad - just like during COVID's early days. Long term, this only continues to incentivize offshoring because now you have a tangible upfront cost you can project and model on ($300k per employee minimum) and compare against the Section 174 impact.

My bigger question would be - if you are an H1B who was born (not necessarily a national) in China or India, why would you even make a large investment like a house or a condo in the US? Best case you are already looking at a 15-20 year backlog just to get a Green Card, and the cost to keep someone on an H1B in the US is a wash compared to hiring abroad if your salary is breaking the 6 figure mark.

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