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A bubble that knows it's a bubble

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Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#81

Post by Jensson »

lm28469 wrote: post #51
ehnto wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the allure of humanoid robots is that they are drop in replacements for agents in a world desgined for humans. If you want your robot to be a helper around the general populations houses for example, you would aim to make a general purpose bot capable of stairs, ladders, lying down, reaching high, stepping over things, holding awkward weights and loads while doing all of the above. Pinch, twist, push, pull, i…

I love how most people can't even afford a car without taking loans but we're talking about personal robot assistants as if it was right around the corner and the natural evolution of things

Such robots aren't more expensive than cars though, you can buy a humanoid robot today for a fraction of the cost of a car. They lack intelligence but they can move around.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#82

Post by throw0101c » 

    Is AI a bubble? Probably.
    
    Does that make it meaningless? Not at all.
    
    Carlota Perez’s Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (2003) is strikingly prescient--and worth revisiting

   [thread]
* https://twitter.com/rubyscanlon/status/1958891869489836076#m

Perez goes back to the technology of canals:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_Revolutions_and_...

People getting excited for something (perceived as) new is part of the human character.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#83

Post by ffsm8 »

Fargren wrote: post #69
Freak_NL wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For disabled people who can use their arms and propel themselves, a wheelchair is low-maintenance, dependable, repairable, self-powered, and generic enough for there to be a healthy market and not too much vendor lock-in. Wheelchairs are not necessarily low-tech, but they are fully understandable. If the user of a wheelchair is unable to move themself for whatever reason, any able bodied person can step in and push.…

All of those are arguments for why robots should generally have wheels rather than legs, except for when legs are specifically needed.

Give me the option of a humanoid looking across that takes care of all in house chores and one that's that utility based with wheels and arms, I will likely choose the humanoid one even with a 100% premium price.

I mean I wouldn't buy either unless I could be certain it's not uploading all data to the cloud and be fully controlled by a user hostile company, but if we're talking fantasy tech ala Detroit: become human... Yeah, it'd be willing to spend a lot of money to have all chores taken care of by a humanoid robot.

And in before someone talks nonsense again wrt "you already can, just pay someone to do it for you"... I do not want to have strangers in my home. This is also essentially why I wouldn't want any cloud connected bot anywhere innit.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#84

Post by marcyb5st »

jstummbillig wrote: post #36

There is hubris, but calling it a bubble simply does not check out, for one reason alone: If AI did absolutely nothing from here on out but give maybe a somewhat better version of current claude code (and it confuses me to no end that some people still refuse to see what is going on there, which admittedly are increasingly few of those who try, which makes sense because stuff gets better) that leads to, say, a ~2x de…

This raises the question: hasn't the market already priced in a ubiquitous AI future? The current valuations seem to reflect the assumption that AI won't just 2x developer productivity but will also automate a huge portion of the workforce/boot productivity across the board. And I believe it has, and it's the only way to explain the sky-high valuations for companies that are 1) still losing money and, more importantly, 2) have no moat.

If that's true, then we are in a bubble by definition. When AI development eventually stagnates, failing to deliver on these promises, valuations will correct fast (and painfully). What happens then to Nvidia and other hardware companies? And what about the massive AI investments currently propping up the economy [1]? These would also be slashed, messing up the entire supply chain that's gearing up to meet this demand.

While I agree the technology is great and useful, I believe we are in bubble territory. I believe it's unlikely to be as transformative as the CEOs and VCs funding these companies claim.

[1] https://sherwood.news/markets/the-ai-spending-boom-is-eating...

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#86

Post by wtcactus »

I think we should be weary of the fact that Sam Altman having an interest in cutting VC funding for new AI products and competitors in order to condensate most AI funding into OpenAI and kill any new competitors, doesn't make him exactly a neutral player in all of this.

The "fearmongering" he is trying to create, can be seen as self-serving, so his opinions should be taken with a very big grain of salt.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#87

Post by isoprophlex »

pjc50 wrote: post #68
dijit wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The half-life of iron is pretty low too, the advantage of the rail system is what it allowed us to do when it was cheap enough. All the investment in AI should help bring infrastructure up to a higher level, power distribution and cooling for example are at a much higher level than would have otherwise been. Who knows what use that might have if it suddenly becomes incredibly cheap. (this is my silver lining thinking…

The half-life of metallic iron is apparently 2.6 million years, so I'm not sure what you mean there.

For some radioactive isotope probably. Uranium 235 half life is, what, > 500 million years? That would make iron significantly hotter. Normal Fe is effectively around forever.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#88

Post by liveoneggs »

lm28469 wrote: post #51
ehnto wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the allure of humanoid robots is that they are drop in replacements for agents in a world desgined for humans. If you want your robot to be a helper around the general populations houses for example, you would aim to make a general purpose bot capable of stairs, ladders, lying down, reaching high, stepping over things, holding awkward weights and loads while doing all of the above. Pinch, twist, push, pull, i…

I love how most people can't even afford a car without taking loans but we're talking about personal robot assistants as if it was right around the corner and the natural evolution of things

Increasing wealth inequality will increase this type of thing. William Gibson novels explain it.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#89

Post by Gravityloss »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #4

I had the same thoughts as much as 2 years ago on how this will play out. Unlike with railroads and fiber optic cable however, the core infrastructural asset of GPUs tends to become rapidly obsolete after about 5 years. Commoditization of this scale of compute is definitely going to be a boon for many fields of research. Unfortunately fundamental public research is exactly what is being cut right now in the US. Long…

On the other hand, since Moore's Law has flattened a lot in general, does this apply anymore?

I think at least with CPU:s the depreciation has slowed down a lot compared to 15 years ago.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#90

Post by Eddy_Viscosity2 »

benrutter wrote: post #52

> Here’s what’s never happened before: everyone knows the script. I'm don't think this is unique, most bubbles historically as far back as the South Sea bubble have had a lot of people aware of the irrationality, but investing in an attempt to profit from it. I'd even go so far as to say, this is exactly what makes bubbles so volatile as opposed to normal "market corrections". If the dotcom boom had been all people w…

Oh, they know its a bubble. FOMO is kind of rational I guess. Seeing others profit wildly while you fall behind can be pretty motivational to enter the trade.
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