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The fact that we’re talking about warning signs the bubble is about to burst indicates the bubble is not about to burst lol.
Can you expand on that?
Even if AGI never happens, the existing models are already incredibly useful. I’ve switched to OpenAI Plus plan and almost never use Google search anymore. I pay $10/mo for GitHub Copilot for coding. So search and coding use cases are already seeing big improvements. But this same thing needs to happen to pretty much every product. So I think in the worst case they can just divert all of the training resources to jus…
A paid product is better than a free one! Who knew it could be!
It's good (maybe even indispensable) for some things. Please don't go "ketchup native" on my ice cream.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean, every year or so there's a new NVIDIA GPU, making last years models obsolete and GPUs from 2 generations back essentially landfill. I don't think there's another large-scale investment that decays at this rate. The infrastructure being there might also be a problem. - If there's no breakthrough, and we're only going to make incremental gains, then its wasteful - If there's a breakthrough, it might turn out a…
> I mean, every year or so there's a new NVIDIA GPU, making last years models obsolete and GPUs from 2 generations back essentially landfill. I don't think there's another large-scale investment that decays at this rate. Ampere generation A6000’s are still selling used for close to MSRP on eBay. I bought an A4500, used it for a year and then sold it for MORE than I bought it for. I’ve never seen computer hardware app…
If you can keep up software support, the hardware becomes much more valuable both now and later, but this is much harder to do in the consumer space where the software than in the industrial/AI space; I'd say the majority of my PC replacements until I was established financially were the result of software not supporting my hardware (not that it couldn't do the task if there were support, but simply that there was no support), and I should say, too, that in almost every case, I regretted dumping $1k in today-dollars for a single game or application otherwise.
Obviously, the problem's much worse with phones/tablets where most people use them for Cloud activities; people use them for 2-3 years and they go in the trash or their service provider might buy it back essentially as e-waste to be scrapped (despite marketing implications of them being reused to help surgeons in Africa).
Every time I see an article like this a quote comes to mind: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." -- John Maynard Keynes Predicting when a bubble is going to burst is close to impossible.
But it feels like it’s about to pop! It really is hard to stay objective as predictors all seem to point one way.
Funny how no one's doing that amidst all the concerns and outcries expressed online.
NVidia’s PE is below 60 and they have 100% year over year revenue growth. A bubble is typically based on future earnings potential Nvidia is a money printing growth creating machine.
One indicator there may be a bubble is when internet investors are bragging about a P/E "under 60" like it's a safe pair of hands.