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Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

promptql.io

81–90 of 274 posts

Re: Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

#81
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I think our jobs are safe. Why doesn’t anyone acknowledge loops like this? They happen all the time and I’m only using it once a week at the most

But still under pressure in the short-term, no? As companies lean into AI as a means of efficiency / competitive advantage / cost savings, jobs will be eliminated / reduced while companies find their direction. The potential gains are said to be too big to sit on the sidelines and wait to be a late-adopter.

Yes hold onto your job like your life depends on it because after this bubble pops the job market will get even worse. Then you need to hold on through the trough until experienced engineers are valued again once all of the AI waste flushes out of the system

Re: Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

#82
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find such statements frightening. Too many people can not tell the different between prevalence ("everybody does it") and factually correct.

Nothing to do with dice though.

The whole "stochastic means to find factual correctness" thing is an error of method, arguing about weights here is nonsense.

Re: Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

#83
post #8

While the thrust of this article is generally correct, I have two issues with it: 1. The words "the only thing" massively underplays the difficulty of this problem. It's not a small thing. 2. One of the issues I've seen with a lot of chat LLMs is their willingness to correct themselves when asked - this might seem, on the surface, to be a positive (allowing a user to steer the AI toward a more accurate or appropriate…

> is their willingness to correct themselves when asked Except they don't correct themselves when asked. I'm sure we've all been there, many, many, many,many,many times .... - User: "This is wrong because X" - AI: "You're absolutely right ! Here's a production-ready fixed answer" - User: "No, that's wrong because Y" - AI: "I apologise for frustrating you ! Here's a robust answer that works" - User: "You idiot, you ju…

True. This also often happens.

Probably the ideal would be to have a UI / non-chat-based mechanism for discarding select context.

Re: Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

#84
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The weights, so to speak, come from the knowledge base. That means you can't get away from the quality of the knowledge base. That isn't uniform across all domains of knowledge. Then the problem becomes how do you make the training material uniformly high-quality in every knowledge domain? At best it becomes the meta problem of determining the quality of knowledge in some way that makes an LLM able to calibrate confi…

Sure, it's only as good as the training data. But human experts also output tokens with some statistical distribution. That doesn't mean anything.

If you think talking to an LLM is the same experience as talking to a human you should probably talk to more humans

Re: Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

#85
post #64

Add to being confidently wrong is the super annoying way it corrects itself after disastrously screwing something up. AI: “I’ve deployed the API data into your app, following best practices and efficient code.” Me: “Nope thats totally wrong and in fact you just wrote the API credential into my code, in plaintext, into the JavaScript which basically guarantees that we’re gonna get hacked.” AI: “You’re absolutely right…

AI Apologetics: "It's all your fault for not being specific enough."

Re: Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

#87
post #70
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The weights, so to speak, come from the knowledge base. That means you can't get away from the quality of the knowledge base. That isn't uniform across all domains of knowledge. Then the problem becomes how do you make the training material uniformly high-quality in every knowledge domain? At best it becomes the meta problem of determining the quality of knowledge in some way that makes an LLM able to calibrate confi…

MCP and agents seem like a solutions but as far as I know maintaining sufficient context is still a problem I.e. ability to plug in expert data sources

Find tuning and RAG should, in theory, enable applications of LLM's to perform better in specific knowledge, domains, by focusing annotation of knowledge on the domains specific to the application.

Re: Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

#88
post #6

Only thing? Just off the top of my head: That the LLM doesn't learn incrementally from previous encounters. That we appear to have run out of training data. That we seem to have hit a scaling wall (reflected in the performance of GPT5). I predict we'll get a few research breakthroughs in the next few years that will make articles like this seem ridiculous.

The problem is the kinds of "data" users will feed it. It's basically an impossible task to put a continuous learning model online and not have it devolve into the optimal mix of stalin & hitler

Re: Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

#89
post #8

While the thrust of this article is generally correct, I have two issues with it: 1. The words "the only thing" massively underplays the difficulty of this problem. It's not a small thing. 2. One of the issues I've seen with a lot of chat LLMs is their willingness to correct themselves when asked - this might seem, on the surface, to be a positive (allowing a user to steer the AI toward a more accurate or appropriate…

Agreed with #1 ( came here to say that also ) Pronoun and noun wordplay aside ( 'Their' ... `themselves` ) I also agree that LLMs can correct the path being taken, regenerate better, etc... But the idea that 'AI' needs to be _stubbornly_ wrong ( more human in the worst way ) is a bad idea. There is a fundamental showing, and it is being missed. What is the context reality? Where is this prompt/response taking place?…

> Pronoun and noun wordplay aside ( 'Their' ... `themselves` )

How is that wordplay? Those are the correct pronouns.

Re: Being “Confidently Wrong” is holding AI back

#90
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being confidently wrong isn't even the problem. It's a symptom of the much deeper problem that these things aren't AI at all, they're just atocomplete bots good enough to kind of seem like AI. There's no actual intelligence. That's the problem.

No. The experts in the field are past this argument. People have moved on. It is clear to everyone who builds LLMs that the AI is intelligent. The algorithm was autocomplete, but we are finding as an autocomplete bot is basically autocompleting things with humanity changing intelligent content. Your opinion is a minority now and not shared by people on the forefront of building these things. Your holding onto the ini…

> Like you realize humans hallucinate too right?

A developer that hallucinates at work to the extent that LLMs does would probably have issues getting their PRs past code reviews a lot.

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