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Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

latimes.com

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Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

#81

Post by leopoldj »

athenot wrote: post #50
NitpickLawyer wrote: post #23

What a bad article. I mean how biased can you be, to put the first big quote from someone who wrote a book called "The AI con". Come on! This feels like the "deepseek r1 is the death of nvda" of 6 months ago. Someone is making a play, and whoever wrote this article fell for it. gpt5 has always been about making a "collection of models" work together and not about model++. This was announced what, a year ago? And they…

This is an Opinion piece, not a news article. The distinction between the two seems to be lost on most people nowadays. One way I leverage opinion pieces for things with which I disagree, is to treat it as a sort of "devil's advocate". What argument are they making? Is that really the strongest one they have? Does my understanding of that domain effectively counter those arguments? etc. In this case, the main argumen…

You are right. But newspapers make it difficult to distinguish them. Opinion pieces are liberally distributed amid news items. LA Times has a Columns section on the right hand side. But, this particular piece is not listed there. It is listed next to other news articles.

Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

#82

Post by bugjoey »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #3

After the crash, tech "industry leaders" will struggle to explain why/how they were conned into believing that intelligence was a simple database function with some probability and statistics sprinkled on top.

The internet didn't go away after the dotcom crash in early 2k, so the AI *IF* such crash happens.

There're a lot of business discovering its benefits now, companies will continue building things over it.

Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

#83

Post by karmakurtisaani »

mrguyorama wrote: post #64
jqpabc123 wrote: post #3

After the crash, tech "industry leaders" will struggle to explain why/how they were conned into believing that intelligence was a simple database function with some probability and statistics sprinkled on top.

No they won't. They won't struggle to explain anything because in US business culture, nobody ever actually takes blame except underlings. Nobody ever even asks them to explain themselves. Even in public companies it seems like questions from shareholders that actually get asked in quarterly calls are vague humble brags. "What are we going to do about the problem of winning so hard" while they had record layoffs the…

We don't have to look far for examples. Meta dropped VR in favor of AI without much explanation. All they need is just start talking about the next shiny thing.

Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

#84

Post by jaredcwhite »

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #23

What a bad article. I mean how biased can you be, to put the first big quote from someone who wrote a book called "The AI con". Come on! This feels like the "deepseek r1 is the death of nvda" of 6 months ago. Someone is making a play, and whoever wrote this article fell for it. gpt5 has always been about making a "collection of models" work together and not about model++. This was announced what, a year ago? And they…

I have a feeling if someone wrote an article about how great GPT-5 is and the first big quote was from Sam Altman, you'd say it's a cool article.

It's only "bias" when you don't like it.

Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

#85

Post by tim333 »

>perceptions of AI’s relentless march toward becoming more intelligent ... came to a screeching halt Aug. 7

Overstates things a bit. It seems unlikely OpenAI will release human level AI in the next year or two, but the march of AI improving goes on.

Also re the AI Con book saying AI is a marketing term, I'm more inclined to go with Wikipedia and "a field of research in computer science".

Though there is a bit of a dot com bubble feel to valuations.

Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

#86

Post by 4ndrewl »

aydyn wrote: post #33
nathan_compton wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never met a "thought leader" whose opinion was worth anything.

"Thought leader" isn't an actual title (or at least it shouldn't be). In my mind, its simply someone who you recognize as having the expertise worth paying attention to.

I'm a "thought follower". Wherever my leaders tell me to go, I follow.

Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

#87

Post by 1vuio0pswjnm7 »

"Indeed, as long ago as the 1960s, that phenomenon was noticed by Joseph Weizenbaum, the designer of the pioneering chatbot ELIZA, which replicated the responses of a psychotherapist so convincingly that even test subjects who knew they were conversing with a machine thought it displayed emotions and empathy.

"What I had not realized," Weizenbaum wrote in 1976, "is that extremely short exposures to a relatively simple computer program could induce powerful delusional thinking in quite normal people." Weizenbaum warned that the "reckless anthropomorphization of the computer" - that is, treating it as some sort of thinking companion - produced a "simpleminded view of intelligence.""

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jul/25/joseph-we...

Weizenbaum's 1976 book: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36875958

HN commenter rates this "greatest tech book of all-time":

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36592209

Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

#88

Post by HDThoreaun »

sapphicsnail wrote: post #47
NitpickLawyer wrote: post #23

What a bad article. I mean how biased can you be, to put the first big quote from someone who wrote a book called "The AI con". Come on! This feels like the "deepseek r1 is the death of nvda" of 6 months ago. Someone is making a play, and whoever wrote this article fell for it. gpt5 has always been about making a "collection of models" work together and not about model++. This was announced what, a year ago? And they…

> What a bad article. I mean how biased can you be, to put the first big quote from someone who wrote a book called "The AI con". It's an op-ed. It's supposed to be biased.

This is my biggest issue with online newspapers. With print it is very clear if you are in the op-ed section. Online not so much

Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash

#90

Post by jsnell »

lossolo wrote: post #72
NitpickLawyer wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No, it wasn’t. I replied below in this thread with the specific post, 6 months ago. > After that, a top goal for us is to unify o-series models and GPT-series models by creating systems that can use all our tools, know when to think for a long time or not, and generally be useful for a very wide range of tasks. > In both ChatGPT and our API, we will release GPT-5 as a system that integrates a lot of our technology,…

"the delta between 5 and 4 will be the same as between 4 and 3"[1] Obviously it's not. 1. https://lexfridman.com/sam-altman-2-transcript/

GPT-4 was a long time ago, and honestly mostly useless. But a lot of that progress was already present in the intervening models, and it's easy to forget it happened when comparing GPT-5 to the state of the art a month ago rather than two years ago.

This is hard to quantify exactly since very few benchmarks have the kind of scales where comparing two deltas would be meaningful. But if we pick the Artifical Analysis composite score[0] as the baseline, GPT-3.5 Turbo was at 11, GPT-4 at 25, and GPT-5 at 69. It's just that most of the post-GPT-4 improvement was with o1 and o3.

Feels like a pretty fair statement.

[0] https://artificialanalysis.ai/#frontier-language-model-intel...

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