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I'm worried it might get bad

danielmiessler.com

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Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#81

Post by mikestew »

billfor wrote: post #8

Those people will go back to doing whatever they would have been doing before the technology revolution, which actually wasn’t so long ago… Like maybe go work at a shipyard. We can only build two ships a year it seems…

The technology revolution was so long ago that tech is all I’ve done, and I’m retired now. You think shipyard workers woke up one day in the 80s and said, “fuck welding, imma gonna go program me some computers?”

I’ll just skip over the part where you ignored a lot of those jobs going overseas and are not coming back.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#82

Post by ncr100 »

Swizec wrote: post #7

I know things are bad, we all know things are bad. But first you’ve got to get mad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwMVMbmQBug Here’s the thing: We’re in the complaining stage. It doesn’t hurt enough yet. When it does, we’ll stop complaining and do something. Complaining is a good first step! That’s how it starts.

1,000% yes. Make our WANTS known: 1) to ourselves, and 2) then to the world. And then, be the change that we want.

- "knowing is half the battle" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c71nqMqmiaw

- "be the change you want to see in the world" - https://josephranseth.com/gandhi-didnt-say-be-the-change-you...

Personally I want a more human-first world, and a less money-first world. This touches on many areas needing change.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#83

Post by ave_b_2011 »

philipkglass wrote: post #17
an0malous wrote: post #12

We’re damned both ways with AI. Either it’s a massive bubble that will pop or it does what it’s intended to do and automates a large portion of the workforce. Edit: removed a comment about Ai investors getting bailed out because it was secondary to my main point

Investors weren't bailed out following the pop of the dot com bubble. I don't think that AI investors will be bailed out afterward if this is another bubble.

Housing was another bubble, and those investors got bailed out. “Too big to fail”, I believe, is still the prevailing neoliberal wisdom. This is quite a large bubble and seemingly one of the only bright spots in the US economy.

I give it a 85%+ chance of a bailout when the tech bubble pops.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#84

Post by mml »

LurkandComment wrote: post #44

Soon developers will wish they unionized or had a culture of collective bargaining and rights. You're labor, you just thought you were above it all. I'm not spiteful. I wish you luck and hope you guys organize.

after 30y of this business, i’m dumbfounded we haven’t organized. doctors, lawyers, plumbers etc seem to benefit hugely from professional orgs and unions in their corner.

i guess we are too well paid.

(all of the above make more than you do, and it’s because they are organized)

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#86

Post by enraged_camel »

aisosozjbx wrote: post #65
aaomidi wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn’t bet on this

Why not? Seems to match the trend of tech innovation creating more demand for tech. The reality is lots of software problems can’t be solved with the level of “intelligence” LLMs have. And if they could, it wouldn’t be just software in danger - it’d be every human profession. Even the physical ones, since AI would quickly figure out how to build machinery to automate those.

>> Why not?

Because it's just cope. Look at the current reality. Are companies rushing to fix bad or even buggy code written by human devs? No, not in most cases. In most cases, if a piece of code "works", it is left the hell alone. And that's the thing about AI code: it does work. The quality is irrelevant in the overwhelming majority of cases (especially if it's other AIs that are adding to it, which is the case more and more often).

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#87

Post by IAmGraydon »

I think some of his worries are well founded and others are not. I believe AI is not going to replace everyone or even most. Instead, it will eventually be seen for what it is - not actually intelligent, and the bubble that was built on those hopes and dreams will collapse, kicking off a market crash. At the same time, Trump's tariffs are going to spike inflation, preventing the Fed from cutting. That will further Trump's fight with Powell, which will lead to him installing a puppet. Said puppet will cut rates, leading to record-setting inflation that could lead us into something resembling the Great Depression. That is a very likely outcome, in my opinion.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#88

Post by quesera »

The layoff chart, created by AI, would be more impactful (and simultaneously less confusing, which is rare!) if it expressed the 2025 value as an extrapolated run-rate, or as a predicted range.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#89

Post by xunil2ycom »

If humans are replaced en masse by AI agents, companies will save billions until there is nobody left who can pay for their products and/or services because we're all destitute and on the dole. I'm scheduled to retire in about 9 years. I'm not sure I'm going to make it that long.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#90

Post by hyperliner »

NDizzle wrote: post #80
aaomidi wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had Claude Code do some of the challenges at defcon, it was doing surprisingly well. (I did make sure the challenges didn’t ban AI).

I love love love Claude Code. It's my weapon of choice. However, we're still a ways off. The most recent thing I did prior to typing this comment was have it look at a cosmosdb integration and recommend changes to my CosmosClientOptions to reduce CPU, based on a few exceptions I'm seeing. It recommended 5 changes to 5 settings, and every single one of them was outside of the allowed range for those 5 settings. I told…

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