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François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

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Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#81
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've said this somewhere else, but we have the perfect test for AGI in the form of any open world game. Give the instructions to the AGI that it should finish the game and how to control it. Give the frames as input and wait. When I think of the latest Zelda games and especially how the Shrine chanllenges are desgined they especially feel like the perfect environement for an AGI test.

And if someone makes a machine that does all that and another person says "That's not really AGI because xyz" What then? The difficulty in coming up with a test for AGI is coming up with something that people will accept a passing grade as AGI. In many respects I feel like all of the claims that models don't really understand or have internal representation or whatever tend to lean on nebulous or circular definitions…

> It doesn't matter what the property is or what it is called. Such tests might even help us see what those properties are.

This is a very good point and somewhat novel to me in its explicitness.

There's no reason to think that we already have the concepts and terminology to point out the gaps between the current state and human-level intelligence and beyond. It's incredibly naive to think we have armchair-generated already those concepts by pure self-reflection and philosophizing. This is obvious in fields like physics. Experiments were necessary to even come up with the basic concepts of electromagnetism or relativity or quantum mechanics.

I think the reason is that pure philosophizing is still more prestigious than getting down in the weeds and dirt and doing limited-scope well-defined experiments on concrete things. So people feel smart by wielding poorly defined concepts like "understanding" or "reasoning" or "thinking", contrasting it with "mere pattern matching", a bit like the stalemate that philosophy as a field often hits, as opposed to the more pragmatic approach in the sciences, where empirical contact with reality allows more consensus and clarity without getting caught up in mere semantics.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#82

Let's not. Seriously. I absolutely love François and have used his work extensively. But looking around me at the social impact of AI I am really not convinced that this is what the world needs right now and that if we can stave off the turning point for another decade or two that humanity will likely benefit from that. The last thing we need is to inject yet another instability into a planet that is already fighting…

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Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#83
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter what should or should not happen. Technology will continue to race forward at breakneck speed while everyone involved pats each other on the back for making a bunch of money before the consequences hit

technology doesn't just advance itself

If the incentive is there, the technology will advance. I hear "we need to slow down the progress of technology", but that's misunderstanding _why_ it progresses. I'm assuming the slow down camp really need to look into what's the incentive to slow down.

Personally I don't think it's possible at this stage. The cat's out of the bag (this new class of tools are working) the economic incentive is way too strong.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#84
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if someone makes a machine that does all that and another person says "That's not really AGI because xyz" What then? The difficulty in coming up with a test for AGI is coming up with something that people will accept a passing grade as AGI. In many respects I feel like all of the claims that models don't really understand or have internal representation or whatever tend to lean on nebulous or circular definitions…

Given your premise (which I agree with) I think the issue in general comes from the lack of a good, broadly accepted definition of what AGI is. My initial comment originates from the fact that in my internal definition, an AGI would have a de facto understanding of the physics of "our world". Or better, could infer them by trial and error. But, indeed, it doesn't have to be the case. (The other advantage of the Zelda…

I'd say the issue is the lack of a good, broadly accepted definition of what I is. We all know "smart" when we see it, but actually defining it in a rigorous way is tough.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#86
I think intelligence is search. Search is exploration + learning. So intelligence is not in the model or in the environment, but in their mutual dance. A river is not the banks, nor the water, but their relation. ARC is just a frozen snapshot of the banks, not the dynamic environment we have.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#87
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a judge of whether we got to AGI. And literally no one except straw-manning critics are trying to claim it is . The point is, an AGI should easily be able to pass it. But it can obviously be passed without getting to AGI (as . It's a necessary but not sufficient criteria. If something can't pass a test as simple as AGI (which no AI currently can ) then it's definitely not AGI. Anyone claiming AGI should be…

So do you agree that a human that CANNOT solve ARC doesn't have general intelligence? If we think humans have "GI" then I think we have AIs right now with "GI" too. Just like humans do, AIs spike in various directions. They are amazing at some things and weak at visual/IQ test type problems like ARC.

It's a good question. But only complicated answers are possible. A puppy and crow and a raccoon all have intelligence but certainly can't all pass the ARC challenge.

I think the charitable interpretation is that, if intelligence is made up of many skills, and AIs are super human at some, like image recognition.

And that therefore, future efforts need to be on the areas where AIs are significantly less skilled. And also, since they are good at memorizing things, knowledge questions are the wrong direction and anything most humans could solve but that AIs can not, especially if as generic as pattern matching, should be an important target.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#88
post #4

I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI. It's mostly about pattern matching (and some of it ambiguous even for humans what the actual true response aught to be). It's like how in humans there's lots of different 'types' of intelligence, and just overfitting on IQ tests doesn't in my mind convince me a person is actually that smart.

I think next year's AI benchmarks are going to be like this project: https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-vend-1

Give the AI tools and let it do real stuff in the world:

"FounderBench": Ask the AI to build a successful business, whatever that business may be - the AI decides. Maybe try to get funded by YC - hiring a human presenter for Demo Day is allowed. They will be graded on profit / loss, and valuation.

Testing plain LLM on whiteboard-style question is meaningless now. Going forward, it will all be multi-agent systems with computer use, long-term memory & goals, and delegation.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#89
post #4

I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI. It's mostly about pattern matching (and some of it ambiguous even for humans what the actual true response aught to be). It's like how in humans there's lots of different 'types' of intelligence, and just overfitting on IQ tests doesn't in my mind convince me a person is actually that smart.

Getting a high score on ARC doesn't mean we have AGI and Chollet has always said as much AFAIK, it's meant to push the AI research space in a positive direction. Being able to solve ARC problems is probably a pre-requisite to AGI. It's a directional push into the fog of war, with the claim being that we should explore that area because we expect it's relevant to building AGI.

We don't really have a true test that means "if we pass this test we have AGI" but we have a variety of tests (like ARC) that we believe any true AGI would be able to pass. It's a "necessary but not sufficient" situation. Also ties directly to the challenge in defining what AGI really means. You see a lot of discussions of "moving the goal posts" around AGI, but as I see it we've never had goal posts, we've just got a bunch of lines we'd expect to cross before reaching them.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#90
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to this presentation at least, ARC-AGI-2 shows that there is a big meaningful gap in fluid intelligence between normal non-genius humans and the best models currently, which seems to indicate we are not "already there".

There's already a big meaningful gap between the things AIs can do which humans can't, so why do you only count as "meaningful" the things humans can do which AIs can't? I enjoy seeing people repeatedly move the goalposts for "intelligence" as AIs simply get smarter and smarter every week. Soon AI will have to beat Einstein in Physics, Usain Bolt in running, and Steve Jobs in marketing to be considered AGI...

> There's already a big meaningful gap between the things AIs can do which humans can't, so why do you only count as "meaningful" the things humans can do which AIs can't?

Where did I say there was nothing meaningful about current capabilities? I'm saying that's what is novel about a claim of "AGI" (as opposed to a claim of "computer does something better than humans", which has been an obviously true statement since the ENIAC) is the ability to do at some level everything a normal human intelligence can do.

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