America’s incarceration rate is in decline • Hacker News Board

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#81

Post by throwaway48476 » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 8:58 PM UTC

GuinansEyebrows wrote: post #58

pessimizer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But do you think they'd start letting more people into the country, just to charge to detain and deport them? It's actually sort of an ideal solution. Big business gets back labor that it can threaten to deport if it demands anything, then they can clean up on the public-private deportations. Factory managers could send ICE a list of their most annoying employees to visit. It would be so 80's, I almost typed "the INS…

what you're describing is more or less already happening. don't think h1b visaholders won't become a target.

You think if an H1B is canceled that they would illegally overstay?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#82

Post by SAI_Peregrinus » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 9:01 PM UTC

reverendsteveii wrote: post #20

kovek wrote: post #13

This is interesting. I don't know why it's happening. However, this book deserves a mention: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Natur... . It shares statistics on how violence has been decreasing throughout the history of humanity.

as a followup to that (excellent) book, here's Barry Glassner - A Culture of Fear. The Better Angels of Our Nature talks about how violence has always been declining. A Culture of Fear talks about how the rate of that decline has been increasing since the 90s but people actually perceive things as becoming more dangerous rather than less, and attempts to come up with an answer as to why that may be the case.

The most obvious answer is large-scale media. I can learn about a shooting on the other side of the country within hours of it happening, and think "that could happen where I am". Likewise with any other news, which by definition is about out-of-the-ordinary events. There's more news about violence because there's more news, not because there's more violence, but it feels like there's more violence.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#83

Post by 1vuio0pswjnm7 » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 9:12 PM UTC

The Atlantic suggests this results from the release of those convicted during a decades long crime wave, which apprently took place when many of us grew up. Perhaps it also tracks with a progressive decline in law enforcement. Whether that is because crime waves not longer exist or whether it is some other reason is a question for the reader. A substanbtial amount of crime is now done via internet. Few are ever convicted.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#84

Post by anyfoo » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 9:21 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #55

strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

We did wait for the “perfect” time, and are very happy we did.

I got my son at almost 40, and I’m positive I’m a much better parent because of that. Sure, kids cost energy, but at 40 and 50 you’re not geriatric. I often get the opportunity to compare our parenting style to younger parents, and it’s clear that they often have some emotional growing up to do themselves. They complain about normal parenting things that we just shrug about, they are torn between their career and raising a kid, and most importantly they often lack patience, where to us it just comes natural.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#85

Post by spogbiper » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 9:22 PM UTC

SAI_Peregrinus wrote: post #82

reverendsteveii wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

as a followup to that (excellent) book, here's Barry Glassner - A Culture of Fear. The Better Angels of Our Nature talks about how violence has always been declining. A Culture of Fear talks about how the rate of that decline has been increasing since the 90s but people actually perceive things as becoming more dangerous rather than less, and attempts to come up with an answer as to why that may be the case.

The most obvious answer is large-scale media. I can learn about a shooting on the other side of the country within hours of it happening, and think "that could happen where I am". Likewise with any other news, which by definition is about out-of-the-ordinary events. There's more news about violence because there's more news, not because there's more violence, but it feels like there's more violence.

"if it bleeds, it leads" is (or was, i'm old) a common saying regarding the news media. It may be that there is more news that scares us because scaring us is profitable

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#86

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 9:22 PM UTC

c22 wrote: post #79

bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

I had kids in my late 30s and they tested my patience and emotional regulation to an extent greater than any other experience of my life. I was somewhat emotionally volatile in my 20s and I can't imagine my kids having better outcomes if I'd had to learn to parent at that time in my life.

[deleted]

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#87

Post by Izikiel43 » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 9:39 PM UTC

anyfoo wrote: post #84

bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

We did wait for the “perfect” time, and are very happy we did. I got my son at almost 40, and I’m positive I’m a much better parent because of that. Sure, kids cost energy, but at 40 and 50 you’re not geriatric. I often get the opportunity to compare our parenting style to younger parents, and it’s clear that they often have some emotional growing up to do themselves. They complain about normal parenting things that…

> but at 40 and 50 you’re not geriatric.

biologically, and for pregnancy, yes you are.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#88

Post by saulpw » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 9:42 PM UTC

1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote: post #83

The Atlantic suggests this results from the release of those convicted during a decades long crime wave, which apprently took place when many of us grew up. Perhaps it also tracks with a progressive decline in law enforcement. Whether that is because crime waves not longer exist or whether it is some other reason is a question for the reader. A substanbtial amount of crime is now done via internet. Few are ever convi…

Marijuana possession was the number one crime and is now legal in a majority of states. This seems like the high-order bit.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#89

Post by anyfoo » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 9:43 PM UTC

Izikiel43 wrote: post #87

anyfoo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We did wait for the “perfect” time, and are very happy we did. I got my son at almost 40, and I’m positive I’m a much better parent because of that. Sure, kids cost energy, but at 40 and 50 you’re not geriatric. I often get the opportunity to compare our parenting style to younger parents, and it’s clear that they often have some emotional growing up to do themselves. They complain about normal parenting things that…

> but at 40 and 50 you’re not geriatric. biologically, and for pregnancy, yes you are.

I didn’t say get pregnant at 50. I said I became a parent at almost 40, my wife is a couple of years younger. No problems whatsoever, and I seem to have more energy for parenting (and especially patience) than the parents in their 20s who haven’t even found themselves yet.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#90

Post by watwut » Wed, Jun 25, 2025, 9:43 PM UTC

kovek wrote: post #13

This is interesting. I don't know why it's happening. However, this book deserves a mention: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Natur... . It shares statistics on how violence has been decreasing throughout the history of humanity.

20 century features pretty much largest genocides ever. Multiple of them. And in addition, things that we do not count as genocides, but still involved deliberate killing of millions.

That particular book was criticized by historians a lot.