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The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

mohitdagarwal.substack.com

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Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#81

Post by ivape »

Fade_Dance wrote: post #59
ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

>I wonder what's stopping Nvida from releasing an AI phone It's a low margin business and would hurt the balance sheet more than the completely irrelevant revenue from a project like that. I've been investing in semi for decades and what strikes me about this recent cycle is that so many don't seem to understand that semi is a highly cyclical business that is prone to commoditization waves and inventory/capacity over…

One thing you have to consider is that these other non-hardware dedicated companies have to continuously create new generations of AI chips. You can't sit on the M3, or the Google TPUs, you have to keep making new and better ones. How many companies think they can do this stuff in-house and then eventually realize that they are better off relying on a dedicated vendor? One or two leadership changes and they will cut these initiatives entirely (ask the Zuck about the Metaverse), but Nvidia's whole purpose is to make GPU hardware so they can never truly cut their heart out.

The cyclical stuff was the argument made for semis during the 2010s when no one gave a shit about semis really. I think the game changed, but again, I do operate on faith, or in investor terms, conviction. The main evidence for why the game has changed to me (well, other than AI being the most incredible piece of tech we ever built) is mostly that there are companies that have no business making chip hardware now interested in making chip hardware. That's not usually part of the cycle.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#82

Post by leptons »

01100011 wrote: post #27

Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch. At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.

Google is investing in QC quite a bit, I wonder if Nvidia has. Even Nvidia is going to look antiquated someday.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#84

Post by Aerroon »

chneu wrote: post #48
aleph_minus_one wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. > I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it. I have a feeling that the different judgements come from the fact that the coworker thinks that the AI bubble will soon burst - thus, in his judgement, the AI data center sector of Nvidia is in…

Data centers and enterprise will always dwarf consumer hardware. AI has nothing to do with it. You're silly if you think otherwise.

Consumer hardware is where the innovation slowly starts though. Without the years of people messing with GPGPU on consumer hardware we might not have got the AI revolution on GPUs.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#85

Post by krainboltgreene »

adventured wrote: post #18
tintor wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their upcoming AI PC is dead of arrival since they announced its underwhelming memory bandwidth.

They'll do ~$110 billion in operating income over the next four quarters, with a mere 36,000 employees and no meaningful dividend or debt to maintain. I think they can trivially afford to keep trying if they see a market.

That’s what everyone says up until everyone realizes the actual point when they could no longer actually afford it was 6 months prior.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#86

Post by 7speter »

ryao wrote: post #63
stingraycharles wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I believe Apple refuses to use NVidia as well, they’re actually using Google’s TPUs. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...

That was for training. For inference, they reportedly use their own silicon.

There was a rumor that emerged a few weeks ago that they broke down and made an order from nvidia:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-might-ai-game-1-1951003...

Before that, in a Wired article from 10 years ago about siri and ai, one of the apple higher ups was quoted bragging about having one of the baddest gpu farms around (paraphrasing)

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#87

Post by sennalen »

chneu wrote: post #16
fnordpiglet wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gaming GPUs is a side business for them at this point. It’s all about AI.

Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it.

AI makes a lot of money. But games are what matter

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#88

Post by 7speter »

ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

I didn’t realize Marvell stock was down so much. I would’ve thought that there might’ve been an explosion in training and the need for ssd’s (Marvell makes controllers for enterprise drives iirc), and that Marvell would be doing well. NAND drive prices for consumers are a good amount from their lows from 2023, I figure if ssd’s weren’t moving for consumers, maybe datacenters and enterprise were gobbling them up.

Anyway, maybe marvell should focus more on the the consumer side since hobbyists seem to be building crazy ai rigs and likely needs drives, at the very least, for models. It sort of seems like hobbyists are devouring any worthy gpu that gets produced.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#89

Post by prng2021 »

makeitdouble wrote: post #66
mycall wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By switching to their own hardware, they become NVidia's competitors.

That's kind of arguing that people cooking at home are restaurants' competitors. There's a kernel of truth in it, but if I was McDonalds I'd care a lot more about what KFC is doing than the market trends of cast iron pans.

The 3, multi-trillion dollar hyperscalers using their own GPUs are individuals cooking at home? And Nvidia is the “restaurants”?

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#90

Post by morsecodist »

ericmcer wrote: post #72
mkoubaa wrote: post #58

When takes like these go mainstream (Financial Times, etc) I buy.

I loaded calls this afternoon, two months out so I am not too scared. I figure regardless of tariffs and competition and other fluctuations the demand for computing power will endlessly trend upwards and as much as we can produce will be consumed. Good luck to you.

Even if this were true it doesn't necessarily mean it will translate into stock performance. Expected growth is priced in to the current stock price. Also there are lots of "computing power" companies that are not doing too hot (intel sells "computing power"). Just because there is growth in the sector doesn't mean a given company will do well.

Personally, I have found NVIDIA to be one of the most hyped stocks I have ever seen and it feels weird to take a position that it is under-hyped. That said, people aren't capable of beating the market consistently so I would never invest based on this, or any intuition or information I had.

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