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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

epoch.ai

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Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#81

Post by surgical_fire »

pjmlp wrote: post #52
surgical_fire wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Except this time is quite real Oh it was very real during crypto hype cycle too. The crypto people were very annoying with it. > Indie devs now using AI generated assets instead of hiring artists is quite common. I would imagine it is fine for some concept art, based on my experimentation with multiple models for Stable Diffusion. For generating actual assets that are consistent? I am highly skeptical. Unless we ar…

Consistent enough for it to be an issue. And not only indies, when taking voice actors into consideration. https://www.ign.com/articles/horizon-actor-ashly-burch-says-... Or some well known studios, https://www.ign.com/articles/activision-finally-admits-it-us...

Ah, it is bottom of the barrell AAA stuff instead.

I am somehow unimpressed.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#82

Post by oblio »

toogan wrote: post #58
pjmlp wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am as optimistic as a factory worker about to replaced by robots. Hence why I can't stand such techno-optmism, apparently most folks live in an ideal world free of economics.

Has the last 70 years of productivity increases led to a reduction in weekly work hours? No. Some jobs will be automated away. Good thing. Braindead stuff that a machine can do should be done by a machine. Doesn't mean we'll all soon be just picking our noses. There will be other work to be done, and if unregulated capitalism has its say then it can easily lead to even more worker exploitation.

Industrial work was really bad for workers at least during the early period. Arguably worse than equivalent agricultural work.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#83

Post by tbrownaw »

getnormality wrote: post #71
tbrownaw wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know how office workers are more productive because of computers? This didn't just happen because various companies did R&D investments in building (better) computers, but also because companies actually spent money buying computers for their office workers and because those office workers spent time learning how to use computers.

If A caused B caused C, how does one determine the relative contributions of A and B to C? It makes no sense.

That's because binary logic is the wrong model.

B requires A. C requires both A and B. But also, A has a cost and B has a cost, and spending more on A or B can maybe get you more C.

Maybe spending more on developing better computers won't actually help anything (because they've already got 640k memory, which is enough for anyone). But only half of the people who can benefit from them have actually bought one so far, so collectively spending twice as much on buying computers can make them collectively twice as beneficial.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#84

Post by spongebobstoes »

User23 wrote: post #70
bashfulpup wrote: post #69

Very typical SV argument that R&D is "complex" and everything else is "simple". Would it blow your mind if I told you 10yrs ago that we'd have AI that can do math/code better than 99% of humans but ordering a hotdog on doordash would be cutting edge and barely doable? I don't disagree that "common" tasks are more valuable. I only argue that the argument these are easily automatable is a viewpoint based on ignorance.…

The code that AI is good at currently is exactly common tasks. Good luck getting it to write a competitive video card driver for Nvidia hardware or anything else that requires actual creative problem solving that isn’t github boilerplate.

It's only common among trained experts. For most people, even simple code is astonishingly difficult.

I personally get more value from AI when coding more complex and novel things. Not fully automated, but English has become the most valuable language for me when coding.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#85

Post by jszymborski »

geysersam wrote: post #63
rqtwteye wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

> I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. I don't understand, what stops you from doing that today?

Capital, and its inequal distribution.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#86

Post by api »

signatoremo wrote: post #47
api wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing human labor with technology is usually a wonderful thing if the gains are generally realized. It means less time spent in 'toil' and more time to pursue one's true interests and desires. The reason it feels depressing is that if recent history is any guide, 0.0001% of the human race will receive almost all the benefit. A tiny number of richer-than-rich will get even richer and everyone else will stay the sa…

Can you be specific? Which technology only benefit the 0.0001%?

I was referring to the economic benefits being concentrated.

AI and other automation allows more to be done with less labor which increases corporate profits, and all that is pocketed by a very small number of people. Meanwhile everyone else is unemployed. There is no mechanism to distribute these benefits to anyone.

The money goes to inflate stock and other financial bubbles and asset prices, including housing, which makes living even more unaffordable.

Long term this eventually collapses since the economy doesn’t work with no customers.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#87

Post by wolfcola »

jajko wrote: post #13
therein wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it extra surprising that people are advocating for transitioning to using AI while their proof of concept looks like this: do { resp = callAI(input); } while (!isOutputSane(resp) && attempts++ < MAX_RETRY)

Nobody sane and smart I know is advocating for AI now . All keep saying 'one day', 'soon' etc. Our megacorp very effectively blocked all of this and we don't have anything internal yet, but we are in specific market. And basically all I saw so far was a snake oil from people trying to push it or benefit from it, even here. Trust me bro... well no, show me some hard facts and we can start building trust. Sure assistan…

but layoffs are happening _now_, purely based on what people who stand to benefit directly claim AI will do.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#88

Post by wolfcola »

SequoiaHope wrote: post #68
techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

Well: though we are not particularly likely to I do think that replacing people with machines would be fantastic if we actually just let people relax and work less, and so rather than lament the state of things I tend to focus on the need to promote the value of social systems which support human thriving. On the second point, I guess I would say that most of the marketing talk we see is unlikely to manifest but the…

right, and we all got to work 20 hour weeks bc of the industrial revolution.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#89

Post by buckle8017 »

geysersam wrote: post #63
rqtwteye wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

> I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. I don't understand, what stops you from doing that today?

The availability of fertile land.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#90

Post by fjdjshsh »

NAHWheatCracker wrote: post #6
techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

Yea. Watch a sci-fi film - nifty gadgets, robots taking care of chores, and widespread spaceflight. Real life is some unreliable chat bots. Then there's the depressing practical stuff. AI being forced down our throats. AI as an excuse lay people off. AI as an excuse for massive data hoarding. AI flooding the internet, making it harder to find good content.

>AI as an excuse lay people off.

Why do you think the managers/business owners need an excuse to lay people off? If it's legal and economically beneficial to them, they'll fire people. Having AI won't help them as an excuse. In fact, I would say it sounds like a much worse excuse than "the economy is on a rough spot" or something like that

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