81–85 of 85 posts
AMD is finally starting to make progress with their software stack. Who would have thought?
Does the post confirm anything about software besides "believe"? It seems ADB is just sending more hardware. As far as I know the drivers are still lacking.
AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued. I don't think the reckoning will come from AMD stealing Nvidia's market share, it'll come when the hype bubble collapses and businesses start treating neural networks like commodities, running whatever is cheapest instead of the absolute most powerful. AMD is in a great position, because they make both great GPU/NPU hardware and great CPU hardware.
People think that because a company has grown very large very quickly that it can't grow as much anymore. But on the other hand, there is clear evidence that Nvidia continues to dominate AMD's offerings despite the latter having a competitive product now. So the metric for Nvidia isn't Nvidia vs. AMD but the growth aspect of AI market overall.
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But they are making strides in robotics already. Jensen is super smart, business-savvy AND hard-working. These are some of many reasons I own NVDA.
> Jensen is super smart, business-savvy AND hard-working Those traits are table stakes for running a Fortune 50 company. Before 2019 when the AI boom came out of nowhere, what was going on? Nvidia was an okay company, but not a real over-performer.
Nvidia has been a high margin and great performing business for the last decade. Nvidia had better gross margins than apple by selling gaming GPUs only 10 years ago and that's in a market where you can easily exchange the card in a PCIe slot.
From 2015 till 2022, Nvidia had several years with 50-60% revenue growth. People only look at the recent 2 years and think that Nvidia was "OK" before but I'm invested since 2016 because Nvidia started the growth turbo back in 2014/2015.
Jensen decided decades ago that Nvidia is premium and he positions the company in that position. What many don't get, Apple has only 25% unit share but 75% profit share. So Apple basically concentrates the profit of the Smartphone business. Nvidia will do the same. They had better gross margins a decade ago than AMD has today. AMD might gain unit share but will never gain Nvidia's margins because AMD is a market follower and will never be able to set pricing unlike Nvidia with premium solutions.
Jensen also made CUDA possible. Intel on the other hand killed such projects and also their first GPU project. Intel also didn't invest in OpenAI and so on. Jensen is by far the best CEO and fortunately he doesn't get crazy like Musk does.
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> Nvidia is clearly way overvalued Tell me you haven't looked at Nvidia's financials (especially the margins) without telling me. It basically prints money, now and in the foreseeable future, and all of its products are permanently sold out, even at the insane prices Nvidia is charging.
> Tell me you haven't looked at Nvidia's financials (especially the margins) without telling me. What happens to industries that have huge margins? They get compressed by competition. The biggest companies on the planet, literally, are figuring out how to not pay Nvidia those huge margins.
You can't say that in general because it also depends on the moat.
Apple has 75% profitshare in the smartphone market not because they have the best smartphone but because they sell iOS. This is why Apple can charge much higher margins on iPhones then any other smartphone competitor. Competitors use Android and are basically exchangable so their HW is commodity more or less and margins are much lower.
The same will happen with Nvidia. Nvidia will offer complete data center solutions and many other SW/HW solutions for AI and accelerated computing and will charge high margins for that. HW sellers like AMD will sell only chips which will compete with commodity ASICs.