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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#81
post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

Nope. Is as horrible as it gets. They silently swing by the pedestrians with over 20mph, many drive drunk or don't know/avoid traffic rules and there is 0 enforcement. And if you get hit by them good luck getting compensated for your hospital bills.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want an electric bike but I want to go places with it and I’m worried about it getting stolen when I lock it up outside a shop. Do you have one?

I got a cargo e-bike (Aventon Abound) and I have a cafe lock and a chain lock. Luckily the bike doesn't look "cool" so I am less worried about thieves. It's also quite heavy so the cafe lock is almost always enough. If I am leaving it downtown for hours then I also use the heavy duty chain.

I have the same model, it’s so much fun to ride. Love the abound.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#83
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs have an initial higher carbon footprint after production than ICE vehicles due to their battery. However, the initial CO2 footprint is dwarfed when compared to the operational footprint of ICE vehicles. Takes a few years for the scale to tip in EVs favour, to which then there's a substantial difference. > BNEF studied the US, Chinese, Germany, UK and Japanese markets. It determined the lifecycle CO2 emissions of…

> BEV manufactured in 2023 and driven for 250,000km would be 27-71 per cent lower than those of equivalent ICE vehicles. (Disclaimer: I know little about cars ...) My country, New Zealand, is awash with new BEV brands, some also offering ICE, from China and South East Asia. Compared with traditional SEA manufacturers (Japan, Korea) that supply most of our new cars, the prices are apparently ridiculously competitive a…

Why do you think the batteries won’t?

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#84
post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

Nope. Is as horrible as it gets. They silently swing by the pedestrians with over 20mph, many drive drunk or don't know/avoid traffic rules and there is 0 enforcement. And if you get hit by them good luck getting compensated for your hospital bills.

Exactly. They are a scourge. My best friend’s son had facial reconstructive surgery due to a scooter crash and a coworker’s son broke his arm, quite a bad break.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#85
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$12K for a very limited use vehicle that has an 80 mile range. Good luck with that.

Its zero-sixty time is 2.6 seconds. That ties the fastest thing here: https://www.zeroto60times.com/body-style/motorcycle/fast-slo... ? Which has an MSRP of $20K. I suspect the BMW will sell extremely well.

The BMW links says zero to 30 mph in 2.6

Not bad but it's not zero to 60 mph in 2.6

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#86
post #26

If this graph is the evidence for "Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked" isn't it also the evidence proving "global car sales have peaked"?

I doubt total sales have peaked. Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up. But EVs are eating enough market share that combustion cars are likely never climbing past their peak again.

not necessarily, people in dense urban areas rely on other transportations at least in EU

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#87

I have an EV (Kia Niro EV 2024). I don't want ever to go back to gas. Reasons: * the driving experience is just much, much better: punch & acceleration, stability, quietness, etc. * if you charge at home it is a lot cheaper than gas * it is so easy to "fuel": you plug it in when you arrive home and unplug the next morning Edit: also, after I installed solar cells at home, I drive almost for free!

Hertz forced me to take a Kia Niro EV as my rental. "We have no other vehicles left, it is a higher class vehicle than the compact you reserved". Like hell it was! Never again! I had plans that involved driving 8 hours each way. Electrify America chargers were all broken. Luckily, CircleK chargers "worked", slowly. An hour and 30 min to go from 10% to 90%. Had to charge twice each way. Time I will never get back. Aft…

I deliberately rented a Kia Niro EV on my last work trip for the novelty of driving an electric car since probably 2016. I even insisted when they tried to switch me to another vehicle.

Boy, it sucked. Even with a Type 2 charger at work, and maybe 2 miles between the office and my hotel, charging was a huge hassle. And with an ICE vehicle I can refuel before dropping it back off at the airport in about 5 minutes. It's just not practical to recharge my EV after driving 1.5 hours to catch my flight.

The only other noteworthy experience was making an adjustment in a parking space and having 2 or 3 alarms going off concurrently without any indication of what they meant. (Excluding the proximity sensor, if memory serves.)

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get around on an acoustic bike, but have a lot of friends with e-bikes. I believe this is extremely locale-dependent. For instance there's relatively little bike theft in my locale, except around the university where it's just really easy pickings. I think you can learn a lot by looking at how bikes -- acoustic and electric -- are already being parked and locked in your district. For instance my daughter is attendi…

TIL "acoustic bike" is a phrase

It's not. It's an unfunny insider joke.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#89
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> BEV manufactured in 2023 and driven for 250,000km would be 27-71 per cent lower than those of equivalent ICE vehicles. (Disclaimer: I know little about cars ...) My country, New Zealand, is awash with new BEV brands, some also offering ICE, from China and South East Asia. Compared with traditional SEA manufacturers (Japan, Korea) that supply most of our new cars, the prices are apparently ridiculously competitive a…

Why do you think the batteries won’t?

> The question is will these low cost EVs last 250,000km? I don't think the batteries will.

> Why do you think the batteries won’t?

I was commenting on low-cost EV. I don't know but I think its likely that given the following (maybe incorrect) assumption:

1. Cheap EVs use cheaper lower-quality cells to keep costs down.

2. Cheap EVs use battery tech that maximises range and performance at the expense of longevity, which would be cheaper than both maximising range and performance AND longevity.

3. Cheap EVs save money with worse cooling of the batteries.

I could be wrong on both points.

There are plenty of stories of EV batteries having low deterioration despite high KMs. But I am not sure these are usually old EVs, just EVs driven a lot.

Lithium batteries experience cyclic degradation (degradation when charged) and degradation over time (calendar degradation). We have yet to see how multiple decades effects them.

This NZ govt. report is an excellent resource [1]. It cites this paper [2] where they charted Nissan Leaf battery deterioration over time under various conditions.

Here in NZ, I looked at our post popular used-car website and 9 year old Leafs (2015 model) which had done 90-100,000km had lost 25-32% of battery capacity. There is not much data for earlier leafs.

[1] https://www.genless.govt.nz/assets/Everyone-Resources/ev-bat...

https://www.genless.govt.nz/assets/Everyone-Resources/ev-bat...

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