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I would be cautious. With a top notch chip factory there is no need to defend Taiwan against China.
OTOH, If they have production outside of Taiwan, then they can more credibly threaten to destroy the Taiwanese fabs if China invades.
I would be cautious. With a top notch chip factory there is no need to defend Taiwan against China.
Why the US? Why not Europe? Ireland or UK?
1- The US might be (might have been) the only country which would intervene if Taiwan were invaded by China. 2- The US is also the only country which threatens the world with tariffs for political concessions Maybe TSMC will go to Europe as well, but for now it makes a lot of sense why they choose the US.
It was what this administration did in Afghanistan, it's doing in Ukraine, and nothing tells us it will be different with Taiwan.
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Right. I do. The US buys a lot of it, and it is cheap . As for Europe, you are right, partially it's a matter of a mindset, however there are objective reasons for expensive energy. France's access to cheap uranium is almost gone. Europe refuses to sign long-term russian gas delivery contracts and are buying spot which costs arm and leg (whatever is left of it). German power plants are shuttered. LNG imported from th…
However hard it is, the decline of the US is going to force Europe and the rest of the western countries to build out replacements for US labour and goods. The US is simply not a reliable trading partner nor ally under the new administration. Energy will be built.
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Does anyone think the US would defend Taiwan at this point? I think that ship has sailed under the current administration.
Are you willing to get drafted and fight to defend Taiwan and whatever comes as a result of that? Are you willing to die for Taiwan, or have your kids die for Taiwan? Honest question.
A draft is highly unlikely.
I would be cautious. With a top notch chip factory there is no need to defend Taiwan against China.
A big difference with Taiwan vs Ukraine is that the US lets Taiwan purchase much more top of the line equipment.
Taiwan Is Getting Its U.S. Weaponry—but Years Behind Schedule: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/taiwan-is-getting-its-u-s-wea...
U.S. delivered "wet and moldy body armor" to Taiwan, Pentagon watchdog says: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-wet-moldy-body-armor-to-tai...
The US has not been a good partner to Taiwan, truth be told. If you browse social media that are popular among the Taiwanese, you'll discover that there is quite a bit of resentment towards the US, because they see the US as coercing them into transferring their much-needed human and intellectual capital in world-class semicon technology. (E.g. ~50% of the staff now working at the Arizona fab are TSMC engineers who moved from Taiwan, because American workers allegedly do not have the requisite skills or work ethic.) And yet the US is not willing to reciprocate by transferring its military technology.
I'm sure Trump's disastrous meeting with Zelenskyy has greatly damaged confidence among the Taiwanese. At some point more and more Taiwanese might just decide that a mob boss who speaks their language is better than a mob boss who doesn't.
I would be cautious. With a top notch chip factory there is no need to defend Taiwan against China.
Chips are but a tiny reason the US wants to maintain the independence and integrity of Taiwan. (The same can likely sadly be said of their democracy, given the US stance on Ukraine.) Taiwanese independence is primarily about containing China's naval power projection and their ability to keep unimpeded shipping lanes open during times of war. China can currently be easily blockaded, and within a few weeks of such bloc…
And blockade options go both ways: China could blockade Taiwan? They have more and more attack submarines and anti-aircraft missiles - which may be good enough.
I would be cautious. With a top notch chip factory there is no need to defend Taiwan against China.
OTOH, If they have production outside of Taiwan, then they can more credibly threaten to destroy the Taiwanese fabs if China invades.
China's interest in Taiwan is ideological. It is not at all determined by whether the Taiwanese destroy their own fabs in the event of an invasion.
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I doulbt anyone will build a factory in Europe. It won't be competitive because of the energy prices on the continent.
Is chip manufacturing particularly energy intensive? I would expect that chip plants are not that price sensitive about electricity, within reason.
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The Taiwan Strait is around 180 KM long, UK to France is around 30 to 40 KM in comparison. That same strait is also not safe to traverse except for two periods each year, so if they are going to invade we will know beforehand. China needs to win this quickly, because any sort of kinetic war is going to put freeze the global economy and likely cause a mass recession, while the USA (& India) can blockade China's supply…
You are missing one thing: any weapons flying into China will result in stuff exploding in New York and Washington. US carriers will be sunk, and there is no appetite in the US for either scenario. Anyway, the whole thing won't require a single shot. The island and the mainland have close economic ties; people that determine taiwanese policy are heavily invested in China. All the tough words that are being said are f…
A regional conflict over Taiwan is highly unlikely to result in ICBMs headed for NYC and DC, because China knows that’s effectively the end of modern China. And sinking carriers would also be a very risky escalation given the ability of the US and other allies to retaliate.
I do think you’re right that Taiwan will ultimately lose without much warfare, because Trump is a world-class coward and rolls over for every autocrat who looks in his direction.