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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#81

Post by jackschultz »

Stolen bases in baseball is similar to this. In 2023, MLB made two rule changes with stealing being at all time lows (and them thinking fans love stolen bases): 1) Limiting the number of pickoff attempts by pitchers, and 2) Slight enlarging of the bases. Take a look at the jump[0].

It's been interesting to follow some changes teams have made the past two seasons where teams are figuring out how to better time steals when a pitch is thrown, and which players to go after. For example, pitchers with slow releases and bad catchers.

Base running aggressiveness that some teams have been doing as well. The value of going 1st to 3rd on a single is massive and getting speed, and judgement and wanting your players to do that will be more and more valued.

I actually searched "base running aggressiveness" to see what articles had to say, and two months ago Statcast put in a new stat called "Net Bases Gained"[1]. Crazy.

This mimics the changes in NBA talked about here, where value in players changes over times when new ways of playing show their value. It's kind of like the 4 minute mile though, where until someone went out and was able to run under 4 minutes / make all those 3s / run that aggressive on the base paths / go for it on more 4th downs, teams are scared to be the first.

[0] https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SB_leagues.shtml [1] https://www.mlb.com/news/breaking-down-statcast-s-new-baseru...

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#82

Post by brandall10 »

ysavir wrote: post #65
Xenoamorphous wrote: post #9

> Recently, teams have realized three-pointers have higher point value despite their lower scoring percentage. This was such an eye-opener for me. A high-stakes sport like basketball/the NBA went on for decades without realising the simple math that three pointers are more valuable than two-pointers if you just do the basic math. How many areas in our lives are yet to be optimised with really basic math?

I'm guessing that it's more complicated than that. Possibly when the specifications for a basketball court were laid out, the 3-point line was intentionally drawn where it would be a risky shot. And the coaching/playing culture developed with that mindset. But since then people have gotten at least a little bit taller. We developed more ways in which to train and grow our physical strength. Training got more intense,…

"But since then people have gotten at least a little bit taller. We developed more ways in which to train and grow our physical strength."

The person who shifted this mindset is one of the smallest players in the the NBA though, would be considered small by the standards of any era of the game. And in fact, the game has shifted to smaller players in general in recent years. It's more of a skill/agility thing.

I do believe technology has played a part though. Being able to 3d scan a player's motion and find mechanics adjustments has proven to be quite powerful.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#83

Post by Y_Y »

zoklet-enjoyer wrote: post #14
Mountain_Skies wrote: post #2

>Rise of 3-and-D model Maybe the solution is with a different type of 3D model, namely the Wilson 3D printed basketball. It has more drag than the regulation basketball, making long shots more difficult. This could restore the balance between long field goals and shots near the basket.

$2,500!!! https://www.wilson.com/en-us/product/airless-gen1-bskt-natur...

> Each Airless Gen1 comes with a case, stand, and a numbered tag highlighting its unique exclusivity.

Clearly that justifies it.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#85

Post by necovek »

rossdavidh wrote: post #41
Xenoamorphous wrote: post #9

> Recently, teams have realized three-pointers have higher point value despite their lower scoring percentage. This was such an eye-opener for me. A high-stakes sport like basketball/the NBA went on for decades without realising the simple math that three pointers are more valuable than two-pointers if you just do the basic math. How many areas in our lives are yet to be optimised with really basic math?

One possibility is that there are more players who can make 3-point shots at a high enough percentage to make this true. Also, it depends on how good the defense is vs. 2-point shots; if that gets tighter, then the 3-point shot becomes more valuable. Which also suggests how things may continue to evolve; the best defense vs. 3-point shots probably compromises your defense vs. 2-point shots, and eventually some team w…

While most of what you say correlates, there are other gotchas: moving around a 3pt line leaves a lot more space for defenders to cover, and the real innovation is introducing multiple staggered blocks to open up a 3pt shooter (as a development of pick-and-pop). And moving around an even farther imaginary line at like 40ft from basket and making ~35% of those shots.

So it really is impossible to cover a more than 33% shooter all around the court, and that equates to a better than 50% 2pt shooter.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#86

Post by bigstrat2003 »

ks2048 wrote: post #6

I read something about Go - that very unusual (maybe even considered bad) playing could beat the super-AIs. They are so tuned to opponents in a "typical" style, that they don't know how to beat a player outside this distribution. Maybe an NBA team will come up with something like that.

I can't speak for go, but I've seen beginners get an edge in other strategy games by playing a very unusual strategy. The trouble is, it doesn't tend to last - it turns out either that their strategy really is weak, or that it's viable but they don't have the ability to follow up on the early edge they gained. I can imagine a similar thing might happen with sports strategy.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#87

Post by deeg »

I play and watch a lot of basketball and this article seems to be written by someone who doesn't do either.

The idea that players are more specialized is wrong. In the 90s there were plenty of defense-only players like Denis Rodman and Ben Wallace; they might not start in today's NBA, let alone make all-star teams, because they are too one-dimensional.

A good counter to these arguments is made on the Thinking Basketball podcast. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fp4but75EjY

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#88

Post by m2024 »

deeg wrote: post #87

I play and watch a lot of basketball and this article seems to be written by someone who doesn't do either. The idea that players are more specialized is wrong. In the 90s there were plenty of defense-only players like Denis Rodman and Ben Wallace; they might not start in today's NBA, let alone make all-star teams, because they are too one-dimensional. A good counter to these arguments is made on the Thinking Basketb…

[dead]

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#89

Post by hardwaregeek »

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketball hasn’t caught up, so your average viewer is watching a chess match but not even understanding the basic moves. Which leads to frustration and confusion.

[1]: https://youtu.be/fp4but75EjY?si=YdOqZZ5-sH6lQHd9

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#90

Post by Tarsul »

The point about 3 pointer shots being worth more than 2 pointer shots is generally true. However, in the playoffs, when the going gets tough, usually the jitters set in and the teams hit a lot less 3 pointers than in the regular season. Especially with the season on the line in endgames[1]. Which means: In those cases easy baskets and also mid-range shots (from people who are used to making those) regain their importance. Thus, if you have your playoffs in mind, don't forget to plan for those middies!

[1]the worst were the conference finals 2018 game 7s: Cavs (9/35); Celtics (7/39). Rockets (9/44); Warriors (9/33).

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