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S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

timkellogg.me

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Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#81
post #76

This thing that people are calling “reasoning” is more like rendering to me really, or multi pass rendering. We’re just refining the render, there’s no reasoning involved.

That was succinct and beautifully stated. Thank-you for the "Aha!" moment.

Hah. You should check out my other comment on how I think we’re obviously in a simulation (remember, we just need to see a good enough render).

LLMs are changing how I see reality.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#82
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Matt Levine tangentially talked about this during his podcast this past Friday (or was it the one before?). It was a good way to value these companies according to their compute size since those chips are very valuable. At a minimum, the chips are an asset that acts as a collateral.

I hear this a lot, but what the hell. It's still computer chips. They depreciate. Short supply won't last forever. Hell, GPUs burn out. It seems like using ice sculptures as collateral, and then spring comes.

Year over year gains in computing continue to slow. I think we keep forgetting that when talking about these things as assets. The thing controlling their value is the supply which is tightly controlled like diamonds.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#83
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the narrative that we are currently on the brink of Ai explosion and this random paper shows it has been the same tired old story handed out by ai hawks for years now. Like yes, I agree with the general idea that more compute means more progress for humans and perhaps having a more responsive user interface through some kind of ai type technology would be good. But I don’t see why that will turn into Data from S…

> But I don’t see why that will turn into Data from Star Trek. "Is Data genuinely sentient or is he just a machine with this impression" was a repeated plot point in TNG. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Measure_of_a_Man_(Star_Tre... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Offspring_(Star_Trek:_The_... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ensigns_of_Command https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Schizoid_Man_(Star_Trek:_T... Simi…

The main computer does not make choices stochastically and always understands what people ask it. I do not think that resembles the current crop of LLMs. On voyager the ships computer is some kind of biological computing entity that they eventually give up on as a story topic but there is an episode where the bio computing gel packs get sick.

I believe data and the doctor both would be people to me. But is minuet? The woman created by the binars to distract riker so they could steal the ship? Star Trek goes back and forth as to who counts as a person or not. This is one of the points that is made in the episode where the doctor learns his hologram is cloned many times to work as miners on an asteroid and he says this is slavery. Does minuet get to say she doesn’t want to seduce riker if she doesn’t feel like it? Or is she a program that does whatever the programmer wants?

But moreover linking back to the original technology, does eqtransformer have awareness? Do we treat it as a thinking being that we enslaved to find earthquakes in data because it uses the same technology as ChatGPT? I don’t think anyone thinks we should do this but it seems like that is where people want to take it. That’s strange to me. At what point does data pipelines doing some kind of stochastic transformation and summarization of training data become an individual that presents a desire for autonomy like data or the doctor?

I think there’s lots of questions here to answer and I don’t know the answers to them.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I couldn't agree more. If we're not talking about cyber war exclusively, such as finding and exploiting vulnerabilities, for the time being national security will still be based on traditional army. Just a few weeks ago, italy announced a 16bln€ plan to buy >1000 rheinmetall ifv vehicles. That alone would make italy's army one of the most equipped in Europe. I can't imagine what would happen with a 500$bln investment…

>italy announced a 16bln€ plan to buy >1000 rheinmetall ifv vehicles. That alone would make italy's army one of the most equipped in Europe. So target practice for a beyond-the-horizon missile system launched ground-to-ground or air-to-ground? As an attacking force, conventional ground forces and tactics are a non-runner in a modern theatre of operations when faced against air and drone support. This is why no single…

Italy had a joke of tanks in the last decade(s), that weren't clearly on par with the other European alternatives and the defense budget went to other places, namely navy and air force. Since some of the Italian tanks are being dismissed, there was the need for a new tank, but not having invested much in tanks had the effect of not having cutting edge technology to develop an alternative. So the decision was taken to produce tanks from rheinmetall (Leonardo was available to another German producer, but they didn't want to transfer technology and produce in italy).

Not having tanks is a big no no due to latest events, I do not see the grudge you hold against them when it's clear they wouldn't be used in the same flat scenario of Ukraine or Poland. Given that Italy is highly mountainous, it made sense to prioritize air force and navy first. I think they're also compatible for anti drone guns

Piaggio air space was acquired a few weeks ago by baykar, hopefully it will produce drones.

I do not get why you're saying that a change in the approach of war makes tank not useful anymore, when it's clear they will eventually be adapted to counter drones and similar threats

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#85
post #53

If chain of thought acts as a scratch buffer by providing the model more temporary "layers" to process the text, I wonder if making this buffer a separate context with its own separate FNN and attention would make sense; in essence, there's a macroprocess of "reasoning" that takes unbounded time to complete, and then there's a microprocess of describing this incomprehensible stream of embedding vectors in natural lan…

I had this exact same thought yesterday.

I’d go so far as to add one more layer to monitor this one and stop adding layers. My thinking is that this meta awareness is all you need.

No data to back my hypothesis up. So take it for what it’s worth.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#86

This thing that people are calling “reasoning” is more like rendering to me really, or multi pass rendering. We’re just refining the render, there’s no reasoning involved.

We could see it the other way around : what we call "reasoning" may actually be some kind of multipass rendering, whatever it is performed by computers or human brains.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#87
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear this a lot, but what the hell. It's still computer chips. They depreciate. Short supply won't last forever. Hell, GPUs burn out. It seems like using ice sculptures as collateral, and then spring comes.

Year over year gains in computing continue to slow. I think we keep forgetting that when talking about these things as assets. The thing controlling their value is the supply which is tightly controlled like diamonds.

They have a fairly limited lifetime even if progress stands still.

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#88
post #56

> having 10,000 H100s just means that you can do 625 times more experiments than s1 did I think the ball is very much in their court to demonstrate they actually are using their massive compute in such a productive fashion. My BigTech experience would tend to suggest that frugality went out the window the day the valuation took off, and they are in fact just burning compute for little gain, because why not...

This is pure speculation on my part but I think at some point a company's valuation became tied to how big their compute is so everybody jumped on the bandwagon.

So, "No one was ever fired for ... buying more server infrastructure."

Re: S1: A $6 R1 competitor?

#89

This thing that people are calling “reasoning” is more like rendering to me really, or multi pass rendering. We’re just refining the render, there’s no reasoning involved.

We could see it the other way around : what we call "reasoning" may actually be some kind of multipass rendering, whatever it is performed by computers or human brains.

Yes, of course. The implications are awesome.
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